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As I wrote today, I was able to pick up some HIVE and power it up. That average price was just under 1500 satoshis per token, which I am happy with, even if it dumps lower. A lot of people are scared of large dumps as it is obviously going to affect their holding value, but it also gives the opportunity to increase holdings, distribute holders and provide a higher probability of those buying actually wanting it. This is important for a blockchain and token like HIVE.

One of the reasons STEEM distribution was getting better wasn't just because of the inflation pool, it was also that the original miners have been selling off their stakes over time, giving people a chance to get in without having to be a blogger, or a contributor alone. And many did buy - which is why the HIVE distribution is getting even better percentage-wise again, as it didn't drop HIVE to some large users and those it did are more likley here for the community *as well as* the financial gains.

https://i.imgur.com/0m65Eqj.jpg

The types of users who have bought in over the last two years or so are also often people interested in the community and the more of them they are with significant stake, the greater the pool distribution becomes, which starts growing non-buying accounts too. While a blogger at this stage is unlikely to become a large holder in a couple years by blogging alone, there can be many small to mid-sized accounts, which improves distribution again. 

My general suggestion is, *if you don't like blogging and have the money, buy instead.* This is especially true if you also get upset by not earning what you think you deserve or, watching others earn on what you think they don't deserve. The next part of the suggestion is, *if you are unable to buy and want in, you have to blog, even if you don't like it.* This might mean blogging about things you don't even like... "How unfair!" The third piece of the advice is, *if you love blogging - blog, but buy if you can.*

Anyway, back to the dumping.

So, dumping is bad for holders, great for buyers and distribution, as long as a wider number of people are buying than currently holding. Best is when many smaller accounts buy in a little as they start to feel the ownership and take it a bit more seriously. Smaller buyers also tend to interact more on chain. 

But, this is what I find telling about the Steem softfork that has frozen the stake of large accounts. Yes, these accounts were or are going to dump that STEEM, but the thing with selling cryptocurrencies is, *they can only be sold once.* As soon as these accounts ran out of tokens, the price would start to recover and everyone would be on their merry way, with a slight price setback. 

Not only this, but if there is actual utility in the token like Hive has as a social platform, there will be some percentage of buyers who are going to be interested in that future and stake that cheap purchase up. The dumping of Steem would have lowered the price, but it would have given the potential for those who want a future on Steem to buy-in, take ownership and start interacting. The low token price could have been a boon for new users on Steem and got them excited about the future. Instead, the Steem witnesses have essentially recreated the situation with Steemit Inc, by engineering tainted stake. 

Now they have locked up stake indefinitely and again have a sword of Damacles hanging over the blockchain. Release the stake and it is going to dump for the same result as if they hadn't forked, fork it out of *the Steem blockchain* and they would have completely destroyed any future value for any serious investors, as they have destroyed private property and the stake of current investors, take it for development and they would have actually stolen private funds.

I don't know who actually concocted the plan, but it seems a very weak mental decision and was made by people who are apparently only worried their holding value now, not what it could be in the future. Which means, they don't give a crap about the people in that future that would actually give the token value - which is par for the course in regards to how some of those witnesses acted as users. I am pretty sure at the nearest opportunity, these people are going to dump STEEM anyway - as they aren't long-haul community operators - evidenced by their actions, past and present.

But, it looks like they are in it for revenge or whatever and they are going to try and affect the future of Hive by dumping the airdrops in a coordinated manner. What they don't seem to realize is, this strengthens Hive, not weakens it. Hive is about distribution and today for example, people were happily picking it up off the markets and powering up. This means a wider distribution amongst people who are looking long on Hive and are likely community orientated. Brilliant!

While the price takes a short-term hit, the community enthusiasm with a wider distribution of diverse accounts means that the utility of HIVE is amplified and it not only springs back faster, a lot of that stake is going to be locked up, so liquidity will decrease whilst demand increases. Eventually, the dumping lessens as more people see the utility and experience the scarcity so become holders of the token and stabilization follows. 

Hive is antifragile and this is a fantastic time for those who are looking long on Hive and anticipating that the future here is going to be bright, as it gives us a chance to *get in* to the risk early at the future expense of those who want to *get out* of the risk early. Win-win.

This is all speculation of course, as who knows what everyone is going to do as this space is highly dynamic - isn't it exciting?

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]


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