OK. You've made some things clear. How long do you estimate the recession will last?

Posted using [LeoFinance Mobile](https://leofinance.io)

**Summary:**
In this video, Task discusses the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 0.5%, pointing out that it's not the solution to combat inflation as many believe. He argues that the Fed didn't directly cause inflation, attributing it instead to supply chain issues and other factors. Task emphasizes that the Fed can influence but not control the economy, reiterating that the market dictates interest rates. He predicts a recession in the second half of the year due to various economic indicators like slowing real estate, job market struggles, and lackluster GDP growth.

**Detailed Article:**
Task's video delves into the Federal Reserve's recent move to increase interest rates and challenges the prevailing narrative that higher rates are necessary to combat inflation. He asserts that the Fed is not the sole driver of inflation, suggesting that supply chain disruptions are major contributing factors. Task dismantles the misconception that the Fed directly causes inflation by highlighting that the central bank's actions are more about influencing economic conditions rather than triggering inflation.

Furthermore, Task offers insights into the relationship between supply chain issues, inventory levels, and demand destruction. By emphasizing the cyclical nature of commodities, he explains how price hikes can lead to further price increases, a common phenomenon in commodity markets. Task critiques mainstream financial media for oversimplifying economic dynamics and refers to inflationists and gold bugs as being shortsighted in their predictions.

Transitioning to the real estate market, Task notes that price stabilization began before the Fed's interest rate hikes, illustrating the market's inherent complexities. He outlines the difference between real estate and equity markets, predicting a slowdown rather than an abrupt reversal in real estate price trends. Task discusses how rising interest rates impact affordability and mentions the role of mortgage rates in shaping the real estate landscape.

The conversation shifts towards the job market, with Task critiquing inflated job numbers and emphasizing the significant impact of real estate on employment. He highlights the interconnectedness of real estate and job market dynamics, suggesting that layoffs in the mortgage industry could signal impending disruptions in the housing market. Task portrays a nuanced view of the economic recovery, pointing out weaknesses in labor force participation and wage growth.

In conclusion, Task underlines his forecast of an upcoming recession in the latter part of the year, attributing it to the end of stimulus measures, weak job market conditions, and subdued GDP growth. He cautions against overzealous optimism about the economic recovery and advises a more critical evaluation of economic indicators and trends.

Until a massive collapse, the money printing will contine. The extreme infltion will kill the higher interest rate and people will loose their assets value. The current system has no protection for common people economic freedom but there is extreme vulnerability to down the economy. Let's see how far the outdated system can sustain🤔

Congratulations @taskmaster4450le! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s):

<table><tr><td><img src="https://images.hive.blog/60x70/http://hivebuzz.me/@taskmaster4450le/upvoted.png?202205052112"></td><td>You received more than 320000 upvotes.<br>Your next target is to reach 330000 upvotes.</td></tr>
</table>

<sub>_You can view your badges on [your board](https://hivebuzz.me/@taskmaster4450le) and compare yourself to others in the [Ranking](https://hivebuzz.me/ranking)_</sub>
<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>



**Check out the last post from @hivebuzz:**
<table><tr><td><a href="/hive-122221/@hivebuzz/20220505-website-update"><img src="https://images.hive.blog/64x128/https://i.imgur.com/mBNbtdP.png"></a></td><td><a href="/hive-122221/@hivebuzz/20220505-website-update">We have finished upgrading our website</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href="/hive-122221/@hivebuzz/pum-202204-delegations"><img src="https://images.hive.blog/64x128/https://i.imgur.com/fg8QnBc.png"></a></td><td><a href="/hive-122221/@hivebuzz/pum-202204-delegations">Our Hive Power Delegations to the April Power Up Month Winners </a></td></tr><tr><td><a href="/hive-122221/@hivebuzz/pud-202205-feedback"><img src="https://images.hive.blog/64x128/https://i.imgur.com/zHjYI1k.jpg"></a></td><td><a href="/hive-122221/@hivebuzz/pud-202205-feedback">Feedback from the May 1st Hive Power Up Day</a></td></tr></table>

That is why it is interesting to listen to all those directly or indirectly involved and seek an intermediate point between all of them for the maximum economic development of the parties.

The job market hasn't been rosy for a while and the numbers haven't really changed. Powell just keeps talking like there is a lot of room because there are more jobs than people being hired but it hasn't changed the fact that this has been the case for a while now. I fully expect a recession because the stimulus money has dried out and there won't be the funds to do discretionary spending. 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@jfang003/re-taskmaster4450le-5mnmse)

<center>![pixresteemer_incognito_angel_mini.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/pixresteemer/8h7BBw1w-pixresteemer_incognito_angel_mini.png)</center><center>Bang, I did it again... I just rehived your post!</center><center>Week 104 of my [contest](/hive-179017/@pixresteemer/the-re-hive-contest-results-week-103-and-start-week-104) just started...you can now check the winners of the previous week!</center><center><sub>15</sub></center>