**Summary:**
In this video, Task discusses his outlook for 2021, expressing a contrasting view to the general optimism around a swift recovery. He bases his analysis on factors like the velocity of money, deflationary pressures, negative bond rates globally, and upcoming lockdown measures in various countries. Task predicts a rough 2021, especially in the first half, with potential drops in economic output, increased unemployment, and the need for further government stimulus. He references historical delays and shortcomings in government responses during economic crises, suggesting a potential double-dip recession. Task also highlights the significance of monitoring Europe as an economic indicator for the United States.

**Detailed Analysis:**
Task begins by addressing the general sentiment of a vaccine bounce in 2021 that many are counting on for a return to normalcy. However, he presents a different perspective after conducting his analysis. He delves into the velocity of money, noting that the US is the only major economic area with a velocity above one. This suggests inefficient use of stimulus funds, pointing towards significant deflationary pressures.

Furthermore, Task discusses the negative bond rates in countries like the UK and Germany, expressing skepticism about the sustainability of positive rates in the United States. He anticipates that increasing downward pressure could cause the US bond market to follow suit. Task mentions the impact of lockdown measures on the economy, citing the UK example and predicting stricter measures in Europe and India. He also alludes to the potential negative effects of colder weather and rising virus rates leading to more lockdowns globally.

The analysis extends to the economic indicators, with a specific focus on the auto sales decline in the US, hinting at potential challenges for the retail sector. Task forecasts a rise in unemployment levels, necessitating additional government and central bank interventions. He criticizes the delayed responses of governments, drawing parallels with past economic crises like the housing collapse. This delay, according to Task, could exacerbate the economic downturn, possibly leading to a double-dip recession.

Finally, Task emphasizes the importance of monitoring Europe as an economic barometer, considering their struggles and the drastic measures taken by the central bank. He sees Europe's situation as a precursor to what the United States might face. In conclusion, Task paints a cautious and pessimistic picture of the economic landscape for 2021, challenging the notion of a quick recovery and suggesting a potentially prolonged period of recessionary conditions.

I don't know for sure how 2021 will be like but I'm sure hoping it would be a great year for cryptocurrency and hive

Of course, the markets give negative signals when the best performing economies in Europe, Germany and England vote had declines and as you say, the US could not be better. The crisis generated by Covid cannot be avoided. It remains to be seen how soon the return will return to normal, but probably not in 2021.

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If the premises are these, I hope 2021 will be very different from 2017!

But I'm pretty confident about it!

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<center>![pixresteemer_incognito_angel_mini.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/pixresteemer/8h7BBw1w-pixresteemer_incognito_angel_mini.png)</center><center>Bang, I did it again... I just rehived your post!</center><center>Week 34 of my [contest](/hive-179017/@pixresteemer/the-re-hive-contest-results-week-33-and-start-week-34) just started...you can now check the winners of the previous week!</center><center><sub>8</sub></center>

The only way to keep a lot of people from losing their businesses, jobs and their homes would be to give some of the stimulus money directly to the citizens for them to be able to keep a roof above their heads while the recession runs its course. I know we will not go back to where we were in February this year to be sure. But it would be prudent to keep tens of millions of people in the US or in Europe from getting rekt and soften the blow somehow. Instead, all of the stimulus money goes to governments or mainly those with investments in the financial markets who are mostly already wealthy people. Since key interest rates were already close to zero before Covid-19, not even people with mortgages will benefit from the stimulus money too much.

I was rather disgusted at looking at Jamie Dimon's smiling face when he explained the "wealth effect" brought about the stimulus money in an interview I saw a few weeks back. The vast majority of the wealth generated by the stimulus packages will go to the pockets of the likes of him with very few stops along the way. The likes of Jamie Dimon will enrich themselves to the tune of hundreds of millions as the markets are being propped up artificially by central banks without all that much of the money ever reaching Main Street.

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