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# The Resurgence of Conflict in Syria: Analyzing the Reignition of Civil War

The Syrian Civil War, which had seen a rare period of relative peace, erupted once again over the weekend as Rebel forces made significant inroads by capturing the strategic city of Aleppo. This event is raising alarms regarding the stability of the Bashar al-Assad regime, which has seemingly been under siege since a new Islamist militant group, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched an offensive that has jolted dormant front lines back into conflict after four years of stagnation.

## Understanding the Players: HTS and the SSG

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HTS, comprised of approximately 30,000 fighters, is an amalgamation of various Islamic military factions, some with ties to both ISIS and Al-Qaeda. This new coalition represents the committed and organized opposition known as the **Syrian Salvation Government** (SSG), which dominates the northwestern region of Syria, particularly around Idlib—a city that shares a border with Turkey, a crucial player in this unfolding drama.

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Turkey, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been an ardent supporter of the opposition forces, especially HTS and the SSG. By offering military training, logistical support, and sanctuary, Turkey aims to extend its influence in the region. With a young and ethnically diverse makeup, Syria is vulnerable to external exploitations of its internal disunity, playing into Turkey's geopolitical ambitions of a fractured and weakened state.

## The Counterbalance: Russia and Iran’s Support for Assad

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In stark contrast to Turkey's support for the opposition, **Russia and Iran** take a pro-Assad stance. Their military and logistical efforts have been crucial in keeping Assad in power, maintaining control over 60%-80% of Syria throughout the prolonged war. Despite their previous successes, the recent surges from HTS have distracted these allies, complicating the dynamics on the ground.

Hezbollah, Iran's Shiite ally in Lebanon, has also been bolstered by Iranian support, which has raised concerns in Israel regarding a so-called "Shiite Crescent" stretching from Iran through Syria to Lebanon. This coalition of Iranian interests has proven detrimental to Israel, leading to a series of airstrikes aimed at destabilizing Iranian positions in the region.

## The Israeli-Iranian Tensions

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The predicament for Israel stems mainly from Iran's military positioning in Syria and its support for Hezbollah. As Iran gained a foothold, Israel was prompted to conduct surgical strikes against Iranian assets and their allies. The assassination of Hezbollah's long-standing leader, Hassan Nasrallah, marked a pivotal moment, as Israel sought to undermine Iranian influence right at its doorstep.

## The U.S. Involvement: A Quasi-NATO Strategy

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In the backdrop of this chaotic situation lies the United States. Following the Obama administration's 2011 stance advocating for regime change, the U.S. has maintained a complicated relationship with the Assad government. With recent developments in the Ukraine conflict, where the U.S. has intensified military support for Ukrainian forces, there exists a potential interplay that may impact how the U.S. addresses the Syrian issue.

As HTS attempts to capitalize on the distractions of Russia and Iran, allied forces comprising the U.S., Turkey, and Israel may see an opportunity to push for Assad's ousting once more.

## The Path Forward: An Uncertain Future for Syria

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Despite the initial success of the HTS-led offensive, many analysts remain skeptical about the long-term outcomes of this renewed onslaught. It is believed Russian and Iranian forces will retaliate effectively to stabilize the situation, using airstrikes to dismantle HTS forces. Vladimir Putin has reiterated his commitment to keeping Assad in power, adding another layer of complexity to the ongoing struggle.

Turkey's role continues to be unpredictable, given its unique position within NATO while simultaneously navigating hostile relations with European allies.

## Conclusion: The Geopolitical Landscape

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The Syrian Civil War, thus, remains a central piece of a larger geopolitical chess game, where national interests collide with regional stability. The delicate balance has created a volatile environment in which international powers vie for control and influence, further entrenching Syria in an intense struggle with no immediate resolution in sight. The fragility of this relatively young nation-state has highlighted its position as a critical battleground for ideological and territorial ambitions among global powers, leaving the path to peace increasingly obscured.

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