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# The Fragile Landscape of US-Iran-Israel Relations

The geopolitical landscape involving the US, Iran, and Israel has been increasingly tenuous, raising questions about the potential consequences of military action and the prospects for diplomatic resolution. Notably, conversations around a possible deal signal a complicated intersection of military strategy, national security, and diplomatic relations. Some experts contend that any negotiated settlement involving Iran would be met with skepticism from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, given Israel’s current military positions and the historical context of Iran's nuclear ambitions.

## The Inflexible Position of Netanyahu

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Netanyahu’s perspective on Iran is staunchly defined, primarily shaping his approach toward any negotiations. The crisis prompted by recent military actions has solidified his belief that a deal with Iran, particularly one that does not completely dismantle Iran's nuclear program, is unacceptable. Instead, there is lingering speculation about what a plausible agreement might look like. The so-called “Libya model”—which implied the eradication of Iran's nuclear capability alongside regime change—remains a distant fantasy due to Iran’s leadership under Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has historically been resistant to concessions.

## Legacy of Failed Negotiations

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Reflecting on previous negotiations, notably the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Khamenei perceived the agreement as a significant concession. The US withdrawal from the deal under the Trump administration has since amplified Iran's adversarial stance, creating an environment in which direct talks appear increasingly fraught. Observers note that any renewed effort to negotiate under current conditions would likely falter, due to both regional instability and internal dissension within Iran’s political apparatus.

## The US Military’s Role and the Shifting Dynamics

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The prospect of a coordinated US-Israel military operation looms, but the aftermath raises further questions. Should military action effectively dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities, various scenarios could unfold. One scenario posits that Iran remains intact but weakened, lacking the military strength and resources capable of posing a nuclear threat. In this situation, elements of diplomatic engagement could emerge, albeit under extreme duress.

## Diverging Outcomes: Stability vs. Collapse

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Conversely, a scenario where the Iranian regime collapses due to significant external pressure and internal dissent cannot be ruled out. Analysts present the possibility of uprisings reminiscent of previous protests against the regime, particularly if citizens begin losing faith in the government’s resilience. Yet, the observers express skepticism regarding the immediate likelihood of an uprising, especially under the current conditions of military aggression.

## Lessons from Regional Upheavals

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Historical precedents indicate that swift changes in governance can occur unexpectedly, such as the rapid downfall of the Assad regime in Syria. The spontaneous nature of uprisings and the potential disintegration of governmental structures underscore the volatile combination of military instabilities coupled with socio-political dissatisfaction. The intelligence community’s frequent inability to predict these seismic shifts emphasizes the unpredictable nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

## Concluding Thoughts: A Critical Juncture

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As the tension escalates, the key question remains: how could the United States and Israel realistically envision an endgame that does not align with their strategic goals regarding Iran? The interplay between military operations, potential negotiations, and internal Iranian stabilization presents a convoluted landscape. If history serves as a guide, the elements of regime stability, popular dissent, and external pressures will continue to mold the contours of US-Iran-Israel relations in the uncertain future ahead.