The Fed Is Not Going To Tighten by taskmaster4450le

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hive-167922 · @taskmaster4450le · Jun 18 '21

$21.65

The Fed Is Not Going To Tighten

The United States Federal Reserve is not going to tighten. Unless we are in the land of flying elephants and purple bunnies, the reality is the Fed is in a corner and tightening is not going to happen.

In short, the Fed faces a liquidity crisis in the US Dollar. Sure, there is plenty of money in the banking system. In fact, we are at the point there is too much. We also see the wrong make up of Treasury securities, meaning the Fed, since there is no help from Yellen, is going to have to recycling different securities through on a daily basis. This is what the Reverse Repo is about.

Nevertheless, the banks are not lending, hence why they are sitting on so much cash. Without lending, the amount of dollars in the US economy is short. This situation gets even worse when we look globally. Since the USD is the reserve currency, it is needed across the world if we are to get economic growth. One of the problems with the US government running monthly deficits into the hundreds of billions of dollars is that bond sales pull in monies from outside the country. Thus when we pull in buyers like China and Saudi Arabia, dollars are moving back into the US banking system, furthering the problem.

With massive debt loads everywhere, there are only a few choices.

They are:

* Austerity

* Massive growth

* Stay The Course

The first two are also in the land of flying elephants and purple bunnies. Politicians are not going to embrace austerity on any level. In fact, globally, they are all going the opposite direction with all amassing record debts and their Central Banks expanding their balance sheets to record levels.

As for growth, the last 15 years shows us that is anemic. Even when Trump was pounding his chest about the economy, which his policies did help grow, it was still only at 3%. For a technological era, that is pretty pathetic. Sadly, Japan and the EU are even worse and, the growth machine of the last 30 years, China, is slowing too.

So this leaves one option: keep doing what Central Banks all over the world were doing: easing. Recall, the ECB started during the Great Recession and never quit. They even went negative with their interest rate in 2014, something that continues to this day. Yet in spite of all that "stimulus", the growth rate is awful.

Of course, the Fed truly has no idea why its policies are failing. After all, why isn't long-term inflation going through the roof? You would think that $30 trillion worth of "money printing" would it. Recently inflationary fears are taking the headlines, something that Powell is well aware of. Even the Fed doesn't believe there is much in the way of long term sustained growth.

This is their projections over the next couple years.

<center>![fredgraph.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmPxCdJqS58sMWU2HuMRzvuR5ndPMrYu5VBZbKiDfNB2Ap/fredgraph.png)</center>

In other words, the Fed's own forecast is that this is as good as it gets. It is only downhill from here. This runs counter to what we hear the media and politicians espousing. From those sources, we are told that the economy is going to be on fire as things open up. It seems that might not be the case.

Of course, it is vital to understand that what we are seeing is a recovery, not an economic expansion. We are still far below the levels we were at economically when COVID lockdowns hit. Quite frankly, it does not appear we are going to get back there either.

The undeniable fact is that, barring more action, the direct stimulus, is going to run out. Starting this month, many states are ending the expanded Federal unemployment. Even those that continue, they see it running out come August or September. That means people are going to have less money to spend.

What happens when people have less money to spend? What does that do to things economically? The answer is things slow down. We still have a large number of people out of work and the wages, as tracked by the Atlanta Fed, are starting to slow. So those that are working are finding their monetary situation is stalling.

So what is Jerome to do when faced with a slowing economy which likely also has some negative impacts in the equities market? Do we think for a second that Yellen won't be bringing over a couple hundred billion dollars in Treasuries each month to sell? Nobody in their right mind believes the government spending train is going to ease off the pedal anytime soon.

Hence, Powell is going to do what he has been doing. There is no way the Fed tightens and risks destroying the economy or the market. It is likely to happen based upon the circumstances we are in yet he is not about the be the cause of that, at least directly.

The discussion about having a meeting to discuss a meeting about the prospect of tightening is his way of saying, "we are staying the course".

He knows very well that by this time next quarter, things are going to be very different.

___
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@automaton · Jun 18 '21

Fed speak can make an impact. However, no one believes Powell thus rendering his words moot. I still see this institution reorganizing to avoid the coming train wreck. It may not be popular but it will be necessary. 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@automaton/re-taskmaster4450le-28yd5e)

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@bearbear613 · Jun 18 '21

You are mistaked we are in a land of flying elephants and purple bunnies

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@bearbear613/re-taskmaster4450le-4u8fuf)

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@beerlover · Jun 18 '21

<div class='pull-right'>https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/beerlover/yiuU6bdf-beerlover20gives20BEER.gif<p><sup><a href='https://hive-engine.com/?p=market&t=BEER'>View or trade </a> <code>BEER</code>.</sup></p></div><center><br> <p>Hey @taskmaster4450le, here is a little bit of <code>BEER</code> from @pixresteemer for you. Enjoy it!</p> <p>Did you know that <a href='https://dcity.io/city'></b>you can use <b>BEER</b> at dCity game</a> to **buy dCity NFT cards** to rule the world.</p> </center><div></div>

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@erarium · Jun 18 '21

***Curation and Education Project for LeoFinance***https://steemitimages.com/35x35/https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/601262083044147202/716137797840404572/leo_icon_black_background.png?width=288&height=288
***@erarium*** 

<div class="text-justify">

<center>
             
``This post has been voted on by Erarium's Curation Team Our goal is to reward financial content within the Spanish and English community for LeoFinance. We have liked the content you have expressed in this article and we would like to invite you to continue developing material of this type, and to use the #Leofinance tag in order to make the community grow``.

---

We invite you to join the LeoFinance [Discord](https://discord.gg/pHy5e6g) so that we can interact and continue to grow.</code></p>

</center>

<center>

https://steemitimages.com/200x200/https://i.postimg.cc/8CwzSKPq/Erarium-nuevo-logo-transparente.png

<center>

Erarium [Discord](https://discord.gg/qe4mf96)

</center>


</center>


Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@erarium/re-taskmaster4450le-7cm3r)

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@jfang003 · Jun 18 '21

I think the biggest issue is that the middle class and businesses were hollowed out due to the lock downs. With all the small businesses closed, I don't see how the economy is not slowing down. I don't think it is possible for them to tighten either right now.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@jfang003/re-taskmaster4450le-2ko15v)

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@taskmaster4450le · Jun 18 '21

Small businesses were obliterated, especially in the Blue States.  That is something that is going to drag on employment since, historically, they were the ones who created most of the new jobs.

It is easy to buy into the latest rhetoric.  The problem is, in watching some of the trends, what is being espoused might be shifting, and quickly.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@taskmaster4450le/re-jfang003-3aq5qn)

👍 jfang003

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@lnakuma · Jun 18 '21

Printing money did reduce the foreign debt though, the more US spends USD to buy foreign goods, the worse for each other nations since they are now holding less valued money. It leads countries to plan to stop using USD to trade; and of course for El Salvado's case, start using BTC.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@lnakuma/re-taskmaster4450le-4xyiz9)

👍 taskmaster4450le

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@taskmaster4450le · Jun 18 '21

I am not sure you how say the USD if valued all the major central banks are doing the same thing.  Did you look at the balance sheet of the ECB?  They are adding to it at a much greater pace than the US.

In terms of "money printing" the US only makes up about a quarter of all that is put out there.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@taskmaster4450le/re-lnakuma-24mkcd)

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@nealmcspadden · Jun 18 '21

The only times we've had the explosive growth that politicians fantasize about were after WWII ended and the computer revolution.

After WWII, the feds (amazingly) reduced the budget dramatically and the US was the only country left standing with production capacity. People took their money and made decisions with it that created the goldilocks baby booomer generation.

In the 80s and 90s, the computer revolution in business increased productivity so much that the economy couldn't help but grow even with a recession in the early 90s.

That is all to say that without very special circumstances the monetary policy of grinding inflation kills growth. People rationally expect the value of their currency to deflate and it prevents the majority from getting ahead over time.

And it makes me wonder, if we had a bitcoin monetary standard would we see that kind of growth? If people could rely on their purchasing power to be stable or maybe even increase, would savings and investment increase? 

I think so.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@nealmcspadden/re-taskmaster4450le-fhzzq)

👍 taskmaster4450le, drax.leo

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@taskmaster4450le · Jun 18 '21

I think crypto (not so much bitcoin since that is extremely deflationary) will provide the liquidity where it is needed as opposed to the present system.  The distribution system of fiat makes it such that we do not need the radical growth that comes from innovation and experimentation.  Hence, we see the development come from a few areas, large companies that have the resources or those startups that are able to attract large amounts of VC money.  Most everything else is left out in the cold.

This is a big hindrance to growth in my opinion.  The lack of USD liquidity where it is need is one of the biggest problems we face.  Having the bulk of it in the financial does not do much to stimulate innovation.  In fact, that only supports zombie or near zombie companies (those that doing the exact opposite).



Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@taskmaster4450le/re-nealmcspadden-78rkgn)

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@pixresteemer · Jun 18 '21

<center>![pixresteemer_incognito_angel_mini.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/pixresteemer/8h7BBw1w-pixresteemer_incognito_angel_mini.png)</center><center>Bang, I did it again... I just rehived your post!</center><center>Week 61 of my [contest](/hive-179017/@pixresteemer/the-re-hive-contest-results-week-60-and-start-week-61) just started...you can now check the winners of the previous week!</center><center>!BEER</center><center><sub>11</sub></center>

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@thatcryptodave · Jun 18 '21

> "He knows very well that by this time next quarter, things are going to be very different."

You have me curious... it seems to contradict everything you said before it. I was nodding as you described the maintenance of the bullshit status quo and the lack of growth. So what will be "very different" in the next quarter? The level of resulting poverty? Fill me in.



---

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@taskmaster4450le · Jun 18 '21

We are seeing things starting to roll over.  So the discussion about inflation will likely be different in 90 days if commodities continue to roll.  Plus we are seeing MoM negativity on retail sales out of both Europe and the US.  This is something to watch.  In my view, it is likely to continue for a few reason.  The unemployment stimulus is going away and people are aware of that so they will likely tighten.  Also, there was a lot of pulling forward of demand as goods were bought in lieu of being able to spend on services.  

I think inventory escalation we are seeing will result in a businesses realizing they overestimated the growth and will be caught with too much product on their shelves.

That is going to really change the discussion, something that ties into the Fed continuing on the same path.

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👍 thatcryptodave

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@yeckingo1 · Jun 18 '21

Your reasoning is logical and Powell is likely to continue doing what he is doing. But you have to prepare because if we make a mistake with inflation, the consequences will be enormous.
In other words, we are on the tightrope, accustomed to risk but there is no longer a safety net.
Western economies have not suffered from hyperinflation for a long time, like 100 years ago we did not have a pandemic but everything returns sooner or later.

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@taskmaster4450le · Jun 18 '21

>Western economies have not suffered from hyperinflation for a long time, like 100 years ago we did not have a pandemic but everything returns sooner or later.

You have a better chance of seeing flying bunnies than hyperinflation.  The Fed would have loved that.  In fact, the central banks spent $30 trillion since the Great Recession trying to get that.  It hasnt worked.

We are nowhere near the same world of 100 years ago.  Oil proved that.  In the 1970s, rising oil prices caused stagflation in the US.  Yet in the 2010s, rising oil prices the US to become a net exporter of oil due to technological advancement; in this instance called hydraulic fracking.

So unless technology is going away, all these central banks are screwed.

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