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As Steem falls, we're printing more of it. by tcpolymath

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steem · @tcpolymath ·
$71.05
As Steem falls, we're printing more of it.
<div class="text-justify">

Yesterday @timcliff made a <a href="https://steemit.com/sbd/@timcliff/sbd-explained">long post about how SBD works</a> and it make me realize something about the system as a whole. Tim points out that SBD are essentially a method of enforcing holding liquid Steem:

>What is interesting is that when liquid rewards are paid in SBD (instead of STEEM), those SBD tokens essentially have the same economic benefit as a user buying STEEM and not selling it, i.e. HODLing. For as long as those SBD tokens are in existence (not converted to STEEM) that is less liquid STEEM being traded/sold. Even if a user receives a SBD token and turns around and sells it right away, that is not putting any downward pressure on STEEM.

I think the idea that holding unstaked Steem is a universal good is oversimplified and sketchy at best, and there's a long post coming about that soon. But there's something else important about this, which is that if we think of SBD as essentially a mechanism for holding Steem, that means that the total supply of Steem has been increasing substantially as the price falls. And this is how the system thinks of it - the rewards pool is based on the "virtual supply," aka all of the Steem that exists and all of the Steem that could exist if SBD were converted.

As the Steem:SBD price falls, the number of equivalent Steem locked up in the SBD mechanism increases. If you're used to looking at the real Steem:SBD price that may not seem like a huge deal - it's been 1.4, or .9, but it doesn't move all that much. But remember that the system caps SBD at $1, so a few months ago when Steem and SBD were both $3.5 the effective Steem:SBD price for this part of things was 3.5. 

It's easier to look at this through the debt ratio, which expresses how much of the total value of the system is locked up in SBD. In the spring when the debt ratio was 1%, even though SBD was overvalued by the market, the system behaved as if the total supply of SBD was only 1% of the total supply of Steem. Today the debt ratio is 6.1%. 

That actually means quite a bit. At a 1% ratio today we'd have a total system valuation of about 276.5 million Steem. Instead we have a total valuation of 291.7 million Steem. That extra 15 million Steem comes from SBD holding its value better (again because the system doesn't see numbers greater than $1) than Steem over the last few months.

This also matters a lot for how much inflationary Steem we're printing to feed the witnesses and the rewards pool. We're printing 0.127 Steem more every block under the current debt ratio than we would be under the 1% ratio - around 3650 more Steem every day. Relative to the total pool size, this effect has caused a 5% increase in the amount of money printed through inflation.

I'm still thinking through how much this matters to the functioning of the whole system, but one thing that's clear is that the existence of SBD does put downward pressure on Steem when the price of Steem is falling, because we print more of it. It also puts upward pressure on it as it's rising, because the reverse factor is also true: as Steem goes up we print less of it. So at the very least it increases the swinginess of the market.

Whether we should do anything about this, I'm not there yet. Maybe it's fine. The system caps the debt ratio at 10% - after that the way it perceives the value of SBD will decrease to keep things in line - so we're already more than halfway to the maximum effect.
</div>

<center>![Steem.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVJ2rJuhqEmhknNUjqyTWJ6w7SRQoWekDZtJMzWym9u25/Steem.png)</center>
👍  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and 205 others
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vote details (269)
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@brupvoter ·
re-tcpolymath-as-steem-falls-we-re-printing-more-of-it-20180821t080912669z
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re-tcpolymath-as-steem-falls-we-re-printing-more-of-it-20180820t032156878z
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@eonwarped ·
$0.04
Yes, this is very interesting indeed. The fact that we have a cap makes me worry a little less about weirdnesses coming from the feed price fluctuations, but it does seem odd that price fluctuations in STEEM would dramatically affect the rate of printing immediately, the higher the debt ratio is. It appears to affect the downtown more than the other direction I'd say, since as steem price goes up the debt ratio goes down accordingly. 

I guess with conversions in place it makes sense to operate under the "worst case" assumption (for steem price) that it could all be converted overnight (3 nights) and we'd need to handle it accordingly though... I suppose the printing rate would be more stable against the virtual supply than the actual supply regardless of the conversion activity.... Not sure if that matters though. 

When things get to 10% debt, then it all various smoothly I suppose, in terms of printing rate, so that seems good. 

This stuff is pretty wild.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@tcpolymath · (edited)
I'm still thinking things through, but I'm getting closer and closer to advocating a change where inflation is based on staked Steem rather than any measure of the universal supply. (Mostly for reasons other than this.)

>This stuff is pretty wild.

Steem definitely has a bunch of interesting emergent properties. It reminds me a lot of early Minecraft, and I'm not sure which of our bits are the ones that are like the minecart physics, where "fixing" them to be more realistic made the game a lot less fun.
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@itzohi · 
Nice post.
How can I get steem easily?
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@nealmcspadden ·
$0.04
If I'm understanding this correctly, content creators getting paid in SBDs are actually siphoning value from the lurkers who are holding only STEEM/SP through this virtual inflation.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@tcpolymath ·
$0.05
Yeah, that's a reasonable way to look at it. Although maybe it's more accurately "content creators who were getting paid in SBDs and hung onto them."
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@shadabprince · 
Thank you sir, @tcpolymath
https://steemit.com/story/@shadabprince/first-love-part-1-blog
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@sneaky-ninja ·
re-tcpolymath-as-steem-falls-we-re-printing-more-of-it-20180820t020919388z
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@thedarkhorse ·
$0.06
These things come and go from just the year that I've been part of steemit. So not worried about it. Just trying hard to find a place to pull some cash to invest on a short term as I feel a quick 2-3x return can be made by xmas. Feel right now as there is no SBD being printed and it's supply is very limited compared to steem this will pop much like it did last year. The same issue happened last year with steem prices being so low and sbd printing was super low. The rally started and SBD faired much better then steem. My thoughts are that we will see much of the same coming up soon.
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@tcpolymath · 
At the moment I'm more interested in holding SBD than Steem, certainly. I'm not as convinced that there's a rally coming soon, though.
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@thedarkhorse ·
$0.03
My rule is that when everyone is excited that is when I need to be worried about a crash coming, as everyone gets really down on something it's time to start buying. I called 80c as the bottom for steem 6 weeks ago and restated it a few times to different people and we are in that range. From here I feel back to $1.20-1.30 will happen quickly which is a 50% return and SBD will follow. The real jump will happen when it pushes past there as there just won't be enough SBD to go around.
👍  
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vote details (1)
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@upme ·
re-tcpolymath-as-steem-falls-we-re-printing-more-of-it-20180820t022040967z
You got a 9.46% upvote from @upme thanks to @bidbot.credits! Send at least 3 SBD or 3 STEEM to get upvote for next round. Delegate STEEM POWER and start earning 100% daily payouts ( no commission ).
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@wonderboy3e · 
So informative it.
properties (22)
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@yanipetkov · 
Hmmm, very deep @ informative post, first time I read it under some music, turned it off, and had to read it twice to get it 100%.
Congrats @tcpolymath, good, good post!

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=io.partiko.android)
properties (22)
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@yanipetkov · 
Hmmm, very deep @ informative post, first time I read it under some music, turned it off, and had to read it twice to get it 100%.
Congrats @tcpolymath, good, good post!

Posted using [Partiko Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=io.partiko.android)
properties (22)
authoryanipetkov
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root_title"As Steem falls, we're printing more of it."
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