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It Looks Like Bitcoin Bulls are Leading the Way But Has The Window of Opportunity Passed for Alts? by the-bitcoin-dood

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hive-167922 · @the-bitcoin-dood · (edited)
$13.49
It Looks Like Bitcoin Bulls are Leading the Way But Has The Window of Opportunity Passed for Alts? 
![geminibtcusdNov172020144953.png](https://i.imgur.com/al1GeJI.png)
It's starting to like 2017 all over again right down to the time of year. The Bitcoin chart is starting to look really familiar. Anyone that has been around for awhile has seen this chart pattern over and over again. It's also one of the reason's you'll hear veterans say, HODLERS never lose. 

We're not there yet, a lot of people bought the top in 2017. However, each day we climb higher makes the "HODLERS never lose" scenario much more likely!

One of the  things I've noticed this time however,  is that we're not seeing the same level of hype and excitement we seen in 2017. Nobody is really sure why exactly that is. There's very little press coverage, but we're starting to see a lot of big name institutional investors entering the space. There's reason to be excited and maybe a little reason to be scared as corporate money buys up BTC and drives up the price. That's the 300 lb elephant in the room nobody wants to address. I'm just pointing out the obvious for anyone that isn't paying attention. 

If 2017 taught  us anything, FOMOing in at the top is always a bad idea. HODLER's never lose may prove true once again, but how many people held for 3 years. I'll be honest, I lost a little in the danger zone trying to short the bottom. I'm sure more than a few noobs got really rekt either trying to short the bottom around 3K or just having weak hands and folding under pressure. 

This is another reason why averaging down can be a good strategy. Buy on the way down and sell on the way up. I told friends and family when we dipped into the 3K range now would probably be a good time to enter. I got laughed at. Now people are asking again, just like in 2017 and I'm saying you should of bought at 3K when I told you! It's not an I told you so, it's how we trade! Has the window of opportunity closed for BTC, probably not. There is probably still room for growth. We could hit that ATH and see a record breakout. We could also bounce off all time highs and see a record correction. I don't care who you are, at this point it's all speculation! 

### So Where Does This Leave Alts? 

Again, I feel if you weren't averaging down during the bear market, you missed a great window of opportunity to fill those moon bags. Has the window closed? Again, I can only speculate. One of the things that's really bothering me this time around is the lack of excitement. We have so many projects that are seeing active development and accomplishing great things, yet there's very little excitement outside of the DeFi markets. I'm not sure what that means, but it bothers me a lot! Frankly, at times it keeps me up late at night over analyzing it. 

There's still plenty of room for growth in the alts markets. So many projects fell below all time lows in the bear market. A lot of coins started following BTC on the way up. Most of the coins in the top 20 have slowly risen along side king BTC. I averaged down with most of the coins and I'm now looking at exit strategies with most of my positions in the top 20. I'm trading a little of the volatility and I'm pretty much done adding to my bags. 

 As far as alts outside the top 20 I'm looking at strong projects with active development and use case that haven't pumped. IMHO this is where the real window of opportunity is still wide open but there is also much risk!  I'm loving HIVE right now and everything that's happening in this community. I'm also stacking DOGE, XLM, XRP, SIA and a few others. None of those are financial advice, and I'm not shilling coins, that's just what I'm focusing on personally. 

I am going through some of the larger alt exchanges looking at projects that I know are active with development and strong community. I'm looking for beat up charts with flat bottoms. Seeing if there's community and any excitement or continued interest in the projects. Most important if there isn't usecase outside of speculation, I'm staying away. 

### In Summary

Honestly, I think there's a lot of room for growth in the alts markets but I also feel there are a lot of reasons to be cautious. If BTC bounces off that ATH and begins a correction we could see complete devastation in the alt market. Many gains could be wiped off the table and if it looks like we're entering another crypto winter it could be a bloodbath. 

On the same note we could see many of these smaller alts start following the rise of BTC up like we did in 2017 into 2018. What bothers me here is both the lack of excitement and the  lack of solid exchanges they're traded on (Cryptopia and other hacks were devastating to a lot of the smallcap alts and many midcap projects too). 

I think a lot of what happens with alts will depend on what BTC decides to do. If BTC breaks out and rockets past the ATH, I'll be shocked if we don't see another round of altcoin madness. In 2017 I called it #CryptoInsanity I think a similar situation will arise. 

![cryptoInsanity.png](https://i.imgur.com/JsBi9rM.png)

I'm still building a few bags right now in the top 20 but adding very little. I am taking some profits off the table when it feels right. Occasionally buying back on the next dip. I'm watching BTC closely because what happens next in alts will greatly depend on what BTC does! Any additional bag building will be lowcap and midcap projects with community, development and usecase. 

Not everyone agrees with the concept of averaging down, but it's what has always worked for me. **Buy on the way down, sell on the way up.** is the simple motto I trade by. 

Whatever you do pay attention, be careful and have fun! Happy trading. 

***Nothing here is meant as financial advice. Seek a duly licensed professional or financial advisor for financial advice, not some anon idiot on the internet who calls himself The Dood! This is merely what I'm doing personally and meant merely as conversation in a public forum. Trading cryptocurrencies come with huge risks and extremely volatile markets that could cause huge financial losses.In the spirit of full disclosure I have a position or stake in most coins mentioned***  



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@bagofincome · 
Hopefully, alts will follow the rise of BTC. If it falls down, only real projects with active communities will remain.

We'll see. Exciting times ahead! 

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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
Totally agree. Very exciting times indeed.
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@chekohler · 
As soon as BTC starts to break above its old ATH Bitcoiners who have it will feel rich and try to dish some out to the alt coin market while others will see BTC as overbought and go into the {"cheap hot alt coins" lol that's going to be fun because I've got a whole lot of shit ready to dump

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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
I've got a few bags I'd like relieve myself of too. I'm hoping it plays out that way too.
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@chibi.eevee · 
![20201118_132424.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/7xImv2N.jpg)

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@claudio83 · 
Bitcoin's bullrun is pushed by many institutional investors and is very different from that of 2017, pushed only by speculation.

Indeed, the noise of this Bitcoin rise is more stifled by the media, probably because they fear that the revolution has begun

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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
No doubt. Totally agree with that. I've thought the same thing, or they're being told to try and ignore it. Seems our MSM only reports what their told to report these days. 

The revolution will be decentralized! 

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@cmplxty ·
$0.03
I think there isn't a lot of press coverage because the institutions are telling the press not to cover it so they can get it in at cheaper prices. If there is wall to wall coverage of Bitcoin before they want there to be, the price will be great for us who have been in for several years but it won't work out too well for those who plan on making huge investments. Not sure what they are waiting for necessarily but gives me more time to get in!
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@nickyhavey · 
Yeah you might have a point there! 

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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
That scenario wouldn't surprise me at all and I've considered the same.
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@curatorcat.leo · 
Well, seems to me there are *thousands* of alts out there, and the *"elephant in the room"* is that most of them are perfectly *useless.* I still think *any* kind of an alt rally is going to be on a project-by-project basis, just like the tech stock market recovery in the early '00's left a *lot* of dead *"dot-com"* projects on the ground.

But those with viable and functionally implementable *"real world"* use cases will probably come out OK.

=^..^=

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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
Absolutely. I think so too. The people that pick out the winners are going to really reap the rewards though. 

The crypto space will make the Dot Com disaster look like a walk in the park. There's is most definitely going to be a lot of money lost and a lot of money made. 

Somewhere in that huge pile of shitcoins are our next Googles, Amazons, Facebooks, etc. At the end of the day it won't just be Bitcoin standing. People always want alternatives and different technology. Not to mention different use cases like HIVE for social media blockchain blogging, Waves, ETH, ARK, STRAT and others for dex capabilities / smart contracts, and other coins that are more fitted towards remittances / settlements and that sort of thing. 

There will be a lot of failures but their will be several that rise to the top.
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@edicted ·
$0.05
>One of the things I've noticed this time however, is that we're not seeing the same level of hype and excitement we seen in 2017.

That's because we are still in 2016.  
These are 4-year cycles, so you are getting ahead of yourself. 
2021 is the new 2017. 

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vote details (8)
@the-bitcoin-dood ·
$0.03
Nice I like that. I'm hoping it works out that way too. I was pretty much just making observations off that chart I was staring at earlier. 

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@edicted · 
My target is $250k in Q4 2021. 
I imagine when Bitcoin is trading at $40k the hype will be off the charts.
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@jphamer1 · (edited)
So Bitcoin didnt look like breaking 1200 until Christmas 2016 last time. Which is where we are right now. It wasnt until at least April or May 2017 when most alt coins started to do crazy things although some had started to pop. I remember Ethereum hitting 100 dollars and thinking wow thats crazy. So when Ethereum hits 2000 3000 ill think wow thats crazy. Right about then everything will go screaming up. 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@jphamer1/re-the-bitcoin-dood-41wrs9)
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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
No doubt. It's a trip how these cycles repeat almost like clockwork sometimes too. 

Litecoin at $300 was a real eye opener for me. XRP hitting $3... 

That's usually how it works too. All of a sudden everything starts to pop at once! Here's hoping for a fabulous alt season in the not so distant future! 



Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@the-bitcoin-dood/re-jphamer1-3eureh)
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@nickyhavey · 
I've been dollar cost averaging this year for BTC and will continue to do so as I like earning the interest on the CeFi options. Price has been going nuts in the last few months as nearly 850,000 BTC has been bought up by institutions - [Source](https://bitcointreasuries.org/). This is a staggering amount! 

At the moment, kinda pleased that no-one is really talking about it, can you imagine what would happen if it started going up past ATH?? I have a feeling 2021 is going to be verrrrrrry interesting :)

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@nickyhavey/re-the-bitcoin-dood-7auap3)
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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
It's starting to look that way to me also. Let's hope so... 

2020 sucked for me on so many levels including trading. I'm really hoping for a great 2021 for myself and everyone in the world. This year sucked for a lot of people! If it could go wrong it did!
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@nickyhavey · 
Yeah man, here's to a better 2021 for everyone šŸ»

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@nickyhavey/re-the-bitcoin-dood-dzxa1)
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@poshbot · 
https://twitter.com/BitcoinDood/status/1328791541343719427
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@poshbot · 
https://twitter.com/BitcoinDood/status/1328802246214250501
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@revise.leo · (edited)
I'm not sure if I've bought on the way down or not - I think up and down, I just buy a little of each every month and hold. 

I think like many around here my holdings are quite simple - BTC/ ETH/ LTC/ Hive (obviously)/ BAT/ RUNE and a few others. Oh and an absolute fuck load of Leo and splinterlands cards. 

What could possibly go wrong. 

And, no, it is a case you having told them so, as did I, and did anyone listen, no. 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@revise.leo/re-the-bitcoin-dood-jc9sa)
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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
Leo got my attention now too. I'm really liking what's happening here. 

I'm the same currently. Most of my bags are in the top 20 with the exception of a few left overs from 2018. I've been shying away from the smaller exchanges too. A huge difference from how I was in 2017.
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@rollandthomas · 
I'm following the Smart Money, they are buying up Bitcoin like there is no tomorrow.  So BTC first, than a little ETH for the portfolio.  And I can't leave out the Leo token as it will out perform BTC and ETH in the future :) 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@rollandthomas/re-the-bitcoin-dood-2egfpd)
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vote details (2)
@taskmaster4450le · 
It will likely out perform then by the end of the year.

Even from these levels, a doubling isnt that huge a move for LEO, it would be astounding for BTC.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@taskmaster4450le/re-rollandthomas-2rh5gc)
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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
I've got huge hopes for LEO... So much development too. 

BTC seems to be where the smart money is at, and ETH has a lot going on too always in development not to mention PoS soon and everything that's happening with DeFi markets. 

I always try to hold a small position of Eth too. 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@the-bitcoin-dood/re-rollandthomas-6vm85f)
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@sharkthelion · 
I hope not. I don't have that much Bitcoin. haha. 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@sharkthelion/re-the-bitcoin-dood-6yifds)
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vote details (2)
@the-bitcoin-dood · 
I'm holding more in alts currently too. Alt markets start to adjust upward though when bitcoin takes it moon shot carrying a lot of alts with it. Regardless, love seeing the enthusiasm in the industry when bitcoin does good.
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@slobberchops · 
It has not hit the mainstream news yet, when BTC hits 20k you can bet it will.... that's when all the [numpties](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/numpty) will want in!
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vote details (1)
@beerlover · 
<div class='pull-right'>https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/beerlover/yiuU6bdf-beerlover20gives20BEER.gif<p><sup><a href='https://hive-engine.com/?p=market&t=BEER'>View or trade </a> <code>BEER</code>.</sup></p></div><center><br> <p> Hey @slobberchops, here is a little bit of <code>BEER</code> from @the-bitcoin-dood for you. Enjoy it!</p> <p>Learn how to <a href='https://peakd.com/beer/@beerlover/what-is-proof-of-stake-with-beer'>earn <b>FREE BEER</b> each day </a> by staking your <code>BEER</code>.</p> </center><div></div>
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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
LMAO... I'm waiting for it too. I suspect the media madness will start soon. I need the numpties to buy my old altcoin leftovers from 2017! 

!BEER
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@stefano.massari · 
Iā€™m waiting for ALT season

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@stefano.massari/re-the-bitcoin-dood-3m7uuc)
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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
Next alt season should be HUGE! Fingers crossed! 

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@the-bitcoin-dood/re-stefano-massari-3xvq3d)
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vote details (1)
@oldtimer · 
I don't expect this to happen. 90 % alts will die off. Institutions and big long term investors will not switch from BTC to alts as we did in the last bull run.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@oldtimer/re-the-bitcoin-dood-7cmaun)
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@stefano.massari · 
Next Alt Season will be Huge... and there will be more Alt coins than we can think right now. since there were only 300 ALT COINS that I hear repeated that the alt coins will disappear
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@taskmaster4450le · 
A very difficult situation.  I agree completely about the "lack of excitement" this time.  It makes it "feel" a lot different than 2017.  That was a frenzy, this seems more targeted.

It makes sense since institutions rarely advertise what they are doing ahead of time or take to social media advertising what they do.  Sure some came out telling everyone what they did but I would say there are a lot more that are buying yet not going public.

For this reason, you are probably right about this having a long way to run.  The retailer buyer is not driving this yet we know they will get in at some point.  History says it will usually at the top.

As for the alts, I think it will be a very specific move up.  Not all coins will benefit like last time.  I think it will be ones that have serious projects behind them and a real utility.



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@beerlover · 
<div class='pull-right'>https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/beerlover/yiuU6bdf-beerlover20gives20BEER.gif<p><sup><a href='https://hive-engine.com/?p=market&t=BEER'>View or trade </a> <code>BEER</code>.</sup></p></div><center><br> <p> Hey @taskmaster4450le, here is a little bit of <code>BEER</code> from @the-bitcoin-dood for you. Enjoy it!</p> <p>Learn how to <a href='https://peakd.com/beer/@beerlover/what-is-proof-of-stake-with-beer'>earn <b>FREE BEER</b> each day </a> by staking your <code>BEER</code>.</p> </center><div></div>
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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
I totally agree. The other thing I didn't write is most of these institutional investors are kind of setting a floor as they enter at this range. These folks are very unlikely to sell at a loss so we could see this as a new level of support being built by institutional investors. I'm guessing we will find out soon enough šŸ¤£ and can only speculate. 

> As for the alts, I think it will be a very specific move up. Not all coins will benefit like last time. I think it will be ones that have serious projects behind them and a real utility.

This is likely the deathblow to any real shitcoins. Coins without usecase and no purpose probably won't survive a second wave of devastation. On top of that, most of them aren't listed on any exchanges with decent volume so are highly unlikely to get swept up or propped up by another hype cycle. 

!BEER
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@taskmaster4450le · 
>I totally agree. The other thing I didn't write is most of these institutional investors are kind of setting a floor as they enter at this range. These folks are very unlikely to sell at a loss so we could see this as a new level of support being built by institutional investors. I'm guessing we will find out soon enough šŸ¤£ and can only speculate.

That is very true.  Many of these institutions are likely long term thinkers.  They will dump but only after a huge run up.  They are not buying at $15K to sell at $20K.

They are after more than a 25% gain.  

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@tbnfl4sun · 
And the rollercoaster continues, I agree with the people in the camp of shitcoins won't participate this time around, That's how it should be but, a rising tide lifts all boats.

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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
IDK, I'd miss shitcoin trading if it ever went away. I think we're going to see continued growth for the majors in the top 10 or 20 but question survival of a lot of smaller projects. I also think HIVE has a strong future due to community and development. 

I've also got my eyes on DEX capable platforms like WAVES, ARK, and STRAT. There's still a lot going on in those camps too and we've seen some movement. Like you said though, rising tide lifts all ships.  Not sure about ARK anymore.  

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@tbnfl4sun · 
I can't seem to find the time to follow all of it anymore, I tend to stick with Hive based tokens lately except Bitcoin, Litecoin and some EOS tucked away since it was 50 cents. I never even bothered to see how all the airdrops did on EOS.

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@trumpman2 · 
> What bothers me here is both the lack of excitement and the lack of solid exchanges they're traded on

If it moons, I dont care. XD

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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
Fingers crossed. I'm of similar mind and still have some nice bags I'd like to be relieved of. Lets hope so! 

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@uyobong · 
Thanks for your well balance discourse. I'm seeing this BTC move like a replay of the 2017 drama. I don't want to get caught.

> If 2017 taught us anything, FOMOing in at the top is always a bad idea.

At this time, I rather build my alt holdings because the alt pomp season would soon follow when BTC breaks a new ATH value.

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@the-bitcoin-dood · 
Yeah, that's pretty much where I'm at now too. Looking for more projects like HIVE that have community and strong development that hasn't pumped yet. Building those HIVE bags along the way!
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