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The return of the bid-bot by verodato

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· @verodato · (edited)
$266.97
The return of the bid-bot
![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNVtCdH3TykxqR159KSmVrMKzdn7L8jaDtDTG7yqYwjbJ/image.png)

How much are delegators earning on their investment in bid-bots? The Steem blockchain has most of the data needed to make the calculations so let’s follow the numbers!

But not so fast. First, we need some definitions and some code. Any Steem account can delegate its Steem Power to another one and undelegate anytime with no previous notice. The account that delegates is the <b>delegator</b> and the account that receives the delegated funds is the <b>delegatee</b>. There is no credit risk for the delegator as she does not depend on the delegatee’s actions to get her money (Steem Power) back. It takes 7 days to get the undelegated funds back in the delegator’s account so delegators have some incentive to not undelegate so often.  

In this short-term credit market, the delegated funds are the bid-bot’s debt. It is common for bid-bots to pay interest on their debt every day. This reduces how much a delegator would not receive if a bid-bot were to default on its interest payments. 

The query to get all delegations ever made to one bid-bot account (see previous posts to learn about getting and processing the Steem blockchain info) is:

````
bidbot <- 'your_favorite_bid_bot'
sqltxt <- paste("SELECT * FROM TxDelegateVestingShares WHERE delegatee IN ('",bidbot,"')",sep="")
delegations_to_bot <- data.table(dbGetQuery(conn, sqltxt))
````
<ul>
To calculate the monthly end-of-period delegation balances for each delegator we use a procedure discussed in https://busy.org/@verodato/building-delegation-time-series. The next step is to estimate the interest payments to delegators. If the bid-bot sends transfers that are not interest payments to its delegators and does not label each type of transfer accordingly, we risk taking other expenses as interest payments. The list of all accounts that have delegated to the bid-bot is found by:

````
delegators <- unique(delegations_to_bot[,list(to=delegator)])
delegators[,isdelegator := 'yes']
````
<ul>
To get all the transfers from the bid-bot account to other accounts we prepare the following query:

````
sqltxt <- paste("SELECT [from],[to],amount,amount_symbol,memo,timestamp,type FROM TxTransfers (NOLOCK) WHERE [from] IN ('",bot,"')",sep="")
transfers_out <- data.table(dbGetQuery(conn, sqltxt))
````
<ul>
Merge the “delegators” table obtained above with the “transfers_out” table, so that we can check which transfers from the bid-bot were directed to the delegators' accounts:

````
setkey(transfers_out,to)
setkey(delegators,to)
transfers_out <- delegators[transfers_out]
transfers_out[,isdelegator := ifelse(is.na(isdelegator),'no',isdelegator)]
interest_payments <- transfers_out[isdelegator=='yes',list(int_usd=sum(usd)),by=list(delegator=to,year,month)]
````
<ul>
Merge the "delegation_balances" table with the "interest_payments" table and find how the monthly interest payments are related to the monthly amounts delegated. The “mrr” column is the monthly rate of return on the investment on the bid-bot and the “arr” column shows the annualized rate of return:

````
setkey(delegation_balances,delegator,year,month)
setkey(interest_payments,delegator,year,month)
cash_flow <- merge(interest_payments,delegation_balances)
cash_flow_monthly <- cash_flow[delegation_usd > 0,list(interest_usd=round(sum(interest_usd)),delegation_usd=round(sum(delegation_usd))),keyby=list(year,month)]
cash_flow_monthly[,mrr := round(100*interest_usd/delegation_usd,4)]
cash_flow_monthly[,arr := round(100*(((1+(mrr/100))^12)-1),4)]
````
<ul>
Now we need a bid-bot to test our code. At the moment of writing, the highest bid-bot vote value in the https://steembottracker.com page is the @postpromoter one, so we’re going to use it. The table below shows the results. Interest payments and delegations were converted to USD using historic SBD and STEEM coinmarketcap prices (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/historical-data/). The annualized rate of return of the postpromoter bid-bot to its delegators has oscillated around a downward trend and reached its minimum value of 24% in June 2018. The total delegated to the bid-bot quickly reached more than USD 10 million in February 2018. The interest payments, after nearing USD 300.000 in the first two months of 2018, went down with the crashing cryptocurrencies prices of the following months, bringing down the rate of return with them.

![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVai51TzczqSRaCTdAUAVQGTuyzxryJHXbLt5t71xzknY/image.png)
👍  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and 343 others
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vote details (407)
@arcange ·
Congratulations @verodato!
Your post was mentioned in the [Steemit Hit Parade](https://steemit.com/hit-parade/@arcange/daily-hit-parade-20180704) in the following category:

* Pending payout - Ranked 7 with $ 284,11
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@bit.curious ·
$0.67
Very well written article, definitely gave me some insight to returns etc. I'm new here so this article was a great source of information!
👍  
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vote details (1)
@presimrapun1977 ·
Best Cryptocurrency Trade Bot HaasOnline (SUPER PROFITABLE!!!)

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@booster ·
<p>This post has received a 20.75 % upvote from @booster thanks to: @verodato.</p>
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@brupvoter ·
re-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180704t122559257z
You got a 6.70% upvote from @brupvoter courtesy of @verodato!
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@bumshak ·
$0.48
Very detailed analysis, thanks a lot. Was looking for this analysis already on the net, but did not find anything. Hopefully things will turn back around and return will reach its high back again.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@carrinm ·
$0.75
Nice work. Hard pressed to get 11% from your friendly bank. The big telling analysis is when the degradation curve brings the returns below bank rates.
👍  ,
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vote details (2)
@verodato ·
$0.37
Hi, @carrinm, there was an error in the conversion of delegations from VESTS to USD in the first version of this post. Sorry. Getting 24% from your friendly bank is going to be tough!
👍  
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vote details (1)
@freebornangel ·
Couldnt happen to a nicer group of folks.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@henry-gant ·
Ok, so I get $.04 from posting every day.  and from a bot I get $5.00.  What do you think I should do.  I can put in hours to write and get nothing.   or put in nothing and get money.  Money that goes to help people who need.
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@hitbitwow ·
![photo_2018-06-30_21-58-09.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaNLgrKME1SJk2oLB8vhtA2EXfTKaVUavknVSNWuew3Ea/photo_2018-06-30_21-58-09.jpg)

Best Cryptocurrency Trade Bot HaasOnline (SUPER PROFITABLE!!!)

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- 20 different signals
- Safety insurance
- Trade without losses
- Trade any altcoin
- Auto-buy on pump and auto-sell on dump
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Options:
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- Arbitrage Bot
- Order Bot

Exchanges supported:
- Bitfinex
- Bitstamp
- BitTrex
- BTC-E
- CEX.IO
- Huobi
- Kraken
- Poloniex
- ... and much more!


Also we decided to give away 3 months of the "Advanced" plan for free for everyone who installs new version from June 29 to July 10.
Grab your gift right now!

https://www.haasoniine.com
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@itstime ·
Can someone explain to me why does the APR% return increases with increase in value of STEEM. 
This would imply that the circulation/creation of STU increases with increase in value , doesn't this mean it gets highly inflated as the price goes up? and subsequently creating a downward price pressure on STEEM Price.

quite similar to how the US government keeps printing more money when they need to.


https://media.giphy.com/media/3o6Ztah2Jo4BQReDIs/giphy.gif
>sorry not an economist ...
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@josephsavage ·
Actually it was because of the runup in SBD, not STEEM. The reward functions adjust for changes in STEEM price (using witness price feeds). There is no similar compensation for changes in SBD premium (SBD price in excess of $1 floor).
👍  
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vote details (1)
@itstime ·
But whenever there is bull run SBD prices will run up...
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@monir47 ·
Your post is nice
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@mysearchisover ·
$0.90
You have some very nice skills!

I have been noticing the ROI's dropping on http://isteemd.com/

There is also minnowbooster where people can delegate. 
https://www.minnowbooster.net/market?direction=asc&sort=effective_price
👍  , ,
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vote details (3)
@verodato ·
$0.48
Thanks!
Great to know about  http://isteemd.com/ !
👍  ,
properties (23)
authorverodato
permlinkre-mysearchisover-re-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180704t161430580z
categorysteem
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vote details (2)
@rashidsahi ·
@verodato informative for me
properties (22)
authorrashidsahi
permlinkre-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180706t091026428z
categorysteem
json_metadata{"tags":["steem"],"users":["verodato"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
created2018-07-06 09:10:30
last_update2018-07-06 09:10:30
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@redlambo ·
re-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180704t122510772z
You got a 27.64% upvote from @redlambo courtesy of @verodato! Make sure to use tag #redlambo to be considered for the curation post!
properties (22)
authorredlambo
permlinkre-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180704t122510772z
categorysteem
json_metadata{"app":"postpromoter/1.9.2"}
created2018-07-04 12:25:09
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@roshanlal2017 ·
Hello verodato sir,You have provided an image to your blog by very good ideas. Which is the praise of the people. I also hope to write a blog like you and be as good as you like. Please help me.
properties (22)
authorroshanlal2017
permlinkre-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180705t193124662z
categorysteem
json_metadata{"tags":["steem"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
created2018-07-05 19:31:30
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@sarah249 ·
$0.47
those are some nice skills. you have me motivated to do some experimenting with steem blockchain queries too.  profits have declined for sure but they are still better than the alternative investment options. i have faith in steem.
👍  
properties (23)
authorsarah249
permlinkre-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180706t045347827z
categorysteem
json_metadata{"tags":["steem"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
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vote details (1)
@shares ·
re-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180705t003750533z
This post has received a 19.92% UpGoat from @shares. Send at least 0.1 SBD to @shares with a post link in the memo field.

Interested to earn daily? Delegate Steem Power to receive 95% payout rewards. Use this link https://on.king.net/shares to delegate SP to @Shares. Join us at [https://steemchat.com/](https://steemchat.com/) discord chat.

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properties (22)
authorshares
permlinkre-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180705t003750533z
categorysteem
json_metadata{"app":"postpromoter/1.8.9"}
created2018-07-05 00:37:51
last_update2018-07-05 00:37:51
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@sujon05 ·
you're doing great i like you information thanks to sharing with us
properties (22)
authorsujon05
permlinkre-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180705t140819327z
categorysteem
json_metadata{"tags":["steem"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
created2018-07-05 14:08:24
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@haikubot ·
<em>You're doing great i 
Like you information thanks 
To sharing with us 
</em>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<sup>- sujon05</sup>

---
<sup><sup><em>I'm a bot. I detect haiku.</em></sup></sup>
properties (22)
authorhaikubot
permlink20180705t140831108z
categorysteem
json_metadata{"tags":["test"],"app":"steemjs/examples"}
created2018-07-05 14:08:30
last_update2018-07-05 14:08:30
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@teenovision ·
Excellent news
properties (22)
authorteenovision
permlinkre-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180705t052011266z
categorysteem
json_metadata{"tags":["steem"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
created2018-07-05 05:20:12
last_update2018-07-05 05:20:12
depth1
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@th3voter ·
$0.26
re-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180705t013441417z
You got a 28.45% upvote from @th3voter thanks to: @verodato!
<br>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/demo/image/upload/fl_lossy,q_30/w_350/w_300,c_fit,l_text:arial_30_stroke:You%20got%20a%2028.45%25%20upvote%20from%20@th3voter%20thanks%20to:%20@verodato.,co_blue,bo_5px_solid_yellow/fl_lossy/kitten_fighting.gif">
Image Source *cloudinary.com*
---
*This post has upvoted from @th3voter !For more information, [click here](https://steemit.com/@th3voter)!*
---
You can earn daily profit by delegating SP to our bot, 100% of earnings paid out to delegators. To do so, click below:
[30SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegatee=th3voter&vesting_shares=30%20SP), [50SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegatee=th3voter&vesting_shares=50%20SP), [100SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegatee=th3voter&vesting_shares=100%20SP), [250SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegatee=th3voter&vesting_shares=250%20SP), [500SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegatee=th3voter&vesting_shares=500%20SP), [1000SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegatee=th3voter&vesting_shares=1000%20SP), [5000SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegatee=th3voter&vesting_shares=5000%20SP), [10000SP](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegatee=th3voter&vesting_shares=10000%20SP),
[Custom Amount](https://steembottracker.com/delegation.html?delegatee=th3voter)
Make sure you have at least 15 SP left on your account.
👍  , , ,
properties (23)
authorth3voter
permlinkre-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180705t013441417z
categorysteem
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post_id63,458,147
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vote details (4)
@tts ·
To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image.
[![](https://s18.postimg.org/51o0kpijd/play200x46.png)](http://ec2-52-72-169-104.compute-1.amazonaws.com/verodato__the-return-of-the-bid-bot.mp3)
Brought to you by [@tts](https://steemit.com/tts/@tts/introduction). If you find it useful please consider upvoting this reply.
properties (22)
authortts
permlinkre-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180704t124247
categorysteem
json_metadata""
created2018-07-04 12:42:48
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@upmewhale ·
re-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180705t020610922z
You got a 17.48% upvote from @upmewhale courtesy of @verodato!

Earn 100% earning payout by delegating SP to @upmewhale. Visit http://www.upmewhale.com for details!
properties (22)
authorupmewhale
permlinkre-verodato-the-return-of-the-bid-bot-20180705t020610922z
categorysteem
json_metadata{"app":"postpromoter/2.0.0"}
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body_length165
author_reputation28,704,887,249,463
root_title"The return of the bid-bot"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
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