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ECB Key Interest Rates vs. Inflation: The real cause of inflation by vikisecrets

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· @vikisecrets · (edited)
$8.92
ECB Key Interest Rates vs. Inflation: The real cause of inflation
EZB Leitzinsen vs. Inflation: Die wahre Ursache für die Inflation

Die EZB hat fast ein Jahrzehnt die Zinsen nicht angehoben und mit der umstrittenen Nullzinsen- und QE-Politik für reale Negativ-Zinsen gesorgt. Ein Paradies für Schuldner und Pleite-Staaten, sich weiter zu verschulden, ohne negative Konsequenzen auf den Kapitalmärkten zu erwarten.

Zusätzlich Anleihenkäufe im großen Stil und negative Einlagenzinsen. Wenn Banken Geld bei der EZB hinterlegt haben, mussten sie sogar negative Zinsen zahlen. Eigentlich total verrückt das Ganze.

In der Anfangszeit des Euros hat die EZB die Leitzinsen noch häufig und rasch angepasst und das Niveau über der Preis-Inflation gehalten. Anfang der 2010-Jahre hat die EZB dann aufgehört Zinsen anzuheben und ist in den umstrittenen Nullzins-Modus gewechselt, obwohl die Inflation nicht weg war. Sie hat sich nur Richtung Assets verlagert.

Dann kamen Lockdowns und der Ukraine-Krieg, steigende Energiepreise, Mega-Subventionen, Airdrops. Alles mit Schulden finanziert.

Ich würde sagen die Energiepreise und Lockdowns waren eher der Auslöser der jetztigen Inflationskrise. Es gibt wie immer eine Vorgeschichte. Schulden wurden von den Staaten exzessiv aufgeblasen. Und die EZB hat dabei kräftig mitgeholfen.

Was sagt ihr dazu? Wird die hohe Inflation noch länger anhalten? Vielleicht sogar Jahre?

## ECB Key Interest Rates vs. Inflation (Euro Area)

![ecb-interest-rates-1.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/vikisecrets/23t8DBnQF7RoXwNJEPNnm3RXm481gqZnBQKWek92ZHQrDbY2bn8EcwafherzyuZJkLv37.jpg)

https://staatsschulden.at/leitzinsen

## English

The ECB has not raised interest rates for almost a decade and has caused real negative interest rates with its controversial zero interest rate and QE policies. A paradise for debtors and bankrupt states to borrow further without expecting negative consequences on the capital markets.

In addition, bond purchases on a grand scale (QE) and negative deposit rates. When banks deposited money with the ECB, they even had to pay negative interest rates. Actually, the whole thing is totally crazy.

In the early days of the euro, the ECB still adjusted key interest rates frequently and quickly and kept the level above price inflation most of the time. Then in the early 2010s, the ECB stopped raising rates and went into the controversial zero interest rate mode, even though inflation hadn't gone away. It just shifted toward assets.

Then came lockdowns and the Ukraine war, rising energy prices, big subsidies, airdrops. All financed with debt.

I would say the energy prices and lockdowns were more the trigger of the current inflation crisis but not the real cause. As always, there is a back story. For a long time governments inflated their debt excessively. And the ECB has helped member states to do that.

What do you guys think? Will the high inflation crisis in Europe continue for much longer? Probably years?

*Live your Secrets and Hive Prosper* 🍯

xx Viki @vikisecrets
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@chinito ·
whoa! so high!
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@florakese ·
$0.09
The balance is turning. I think we will see a few years of high interest rates and those who are in debt will suffer.
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@investinthefutur ·
@mima2606 denkt du hast ein Vote durch @investinthefutur verdient!<br>@mima2606 thinks you have earned a vote of @investinthefutur !<br>
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@itwithsm ·
$0.09
Yes, as we are close to recession, these inflation statistics will go much higher, it's happening in every country, our inflation has just climbed to 32
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@jfang003 ·
$0.10
RE: ECB Key Interest Rates vs. Inflation: The real cause of inflation
I think it will continue to be difficult in Europe because I don't think the ECB knows what it is doing. I have a feeling that it is the most likely thing to fail due to it's dumb policies.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@jfang003/re-vikisecrets-4c22pq)
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@kawsar8035 ·
$0.11
Inflation crisis seems to be the problem most countries are facing and many countries are not able to overcome it easily.
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@lauch3d ·
$0.24
Zentralbanken sind seit Anfang des letzten Jahrhundert nur reaktiv und haben mit den Preisen nichts zu tun. Sie verschärfen das Problem in dem sie Anleihen (eine gefragte Währung) vom Markt nehmen. Gelddruck ist wenn Apple, Amazon oder Starbucks Gutscheine oder Pay-Token in die Weltbringen, diese auf ihrer Habenseite stehen und gegen diese Kredite bei Großbanken aufnehmen um ihre eigenen Aktien zu kaufen. Ein privates Kreditsystem dass nur den Previligierten dient - das ist das Problem. Ein Blick ins Portmoney zeigt dass immer mehr ausländische, alte und Sonder-Münzen zirkulieren. Eher ein Zeichen dafür dass es an Geldmitteln mangelt. Deswegen braucht es mehr in Crypto als nur Bitcoin.
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@mima2606 ·
$0.09
Ja die Zinsen bekommt man immer zum Schluss.

LG Michael

!invest_vote
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@noctury ·
$0.09
Ich hoffe ich setze einigermaßen vernünftig auf ein paar stabile Werte, so dass es mich nicht stark betrifft.
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@pero82 ·
$0.10
For me, the craziest thing about this is countries being in debt with each other. For example (I'm tossing numbers from my head, they're nowhere near to being accurate):
France has a debt of 100 billion dollars it loaned from Germany.
That same Germany has lets say 90 billion dollars debt from France. 
And instead of somehow paying off each other's debt saying, ok from now on I just owe you 10, the go and make a loan from some third country to be able to pay interest of the first loan... Who's crazy here?! 
Am I way off here?
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@vikisecrets ·
Unfortunately countries are not borrowing from each other, but borrowing from banks, insurance companies and fonds, that are privately owned, so you cannot simply remove the debt mutually, but a big fraction is nowadays hold by the ECB, where your argument is true. But not all countries are equally in debt, so it would be unfair to just erase the debt for some countries.
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@pero82 ·
$0.10
Well, not erase completely, but cut it down proportionally. I know they can't and won't do that, since its the debt that makes the money flowing, prices going up and making the rich people even richer, while poor people get even poorer.
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@pizzabot ·
<center>PIZZA!


$PIZZA slices delivered:
@janasilver<sub>(2/5)</sub> tipped @stehaller (x1)


</center>
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@stehaller ·
$0.10
So?
Hat etwa die EZB das Öl und das Gas verknappt?
Hat etwa die EZB den Unternehmen befohlen, ihre Preise deutlich (auch teilweise unbegründet) zu erhöhen?
Leider hält sich die Geldmengentheorie hartnäckig, obwohl selbst Friedman in seinen letzten Tagen zugegeben hat, dass sie unsinnig ist.
Man muss zwischen den zwei Geldkreisläufen Zentralbankgeld (Reserven) und Wirtschaftsgeld (Geld das durch Kredit von privaten Banken erschaffen wird bzw. von Nichtbanken durch Handelswechsel, Lieferantenkredit, usw.) unterscheiden.
Durch Anleihenkauf der EZB erschaffene Reserven können **nicht** inflationär wirken, da sie den ersten Geldkreislauf überhaupt nicht verlassen.
Es findet lediglich ein Aktiventausch bei den Banken statt:
Anleihen die Zinsen zahlen verschwinden und werden durch Reserven, die keine Zinsen zahlen oder sogar Geld kosten (Negativzinsen) ersetzt.
Das Beispiel Japan und Europa zeigt, dass dies eher deflationär wirkt.
Jetzt wo die Zinsen explodieren, wird die Inflation zusätzlich angeheizt, weil nun die Halter von Anleihen ein deutlich höheres Einkommen erzielen und mehr Geld zum ausgeben haben.
Bis das die Mehrheit der Ökonomen und Politiker kapieren wird es noch viele Wirtschaftskrisen geben müssen…
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@vikisecrets ·
Kurzfristig bin ich bei dir, da gibt es auch geopolitische Ursachen für die Preiserhöhungen, aber langfristig insbesondere über Jahrzehnte ist die Inflation hausgemacht, Anleihenkäufe der EZB erhöhen die Geldmenge, da Staatsschulden nie zurückgezahlt werden, sondern nur rollieren, Fiat funktioniert so, dass der Wert über lange Sicht weginflationiert wird, gegen 0 geht. Selbst ein Inflationsziel von 2% führt zu einer exponentiellen Entwicklung der Preise.

https://twitter.com/AlephSuper/status/1633256559642853377
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@stehaller · (edited)
Warum war dann die Inflation über viele Jahre hinweg immer unter dem Inflationsziel?
Warum gab es in Japan, trotz Dauer-QE, sogar viele Jahre immer wieder Deflation?

> Anleihenkäufe der EZB erhöhen die Geldmenge

Von welcher Geldmenge sprechen wir denn hier?
M1, M2, oder M3?

Wie soll das bilanztechnisch funktionieren, dass die von der EZB neu geschaffenen Reserven auf einem privaten Konto landen, um dort die Inflation zu erhöhen?
Nichtbanken haben bekanntlich kein Konto bei der EZB, d.h. Reserven können zwar von Bank zu Bank wandern, aber nicht von Bank zu Privatperson oder Unternehmen.

> da Staatsschulden nie zurückgezahlt werden, sondern nur rollieren

Sei froh, dass es so ist.
Staatsschulden = Teil des Vermögens der Bürger.
Und staatliche Überschüsse haben noch immer zu Wirtschaftskrisen geführt.
Macht der Staat Überschüsse, muss sich entweder der Privatsektor oder das Ausland verschulden.
Die Bilanz ist immer ausgeglichen.


![C5D23742-F507-4C60-B73E-3B464C025D78.png](https://images.hive.blog/DQmaaVRnHKstm4u9oPGQJHeBci3Xchr7tg3HUgFxEviwc5r/C5D23742-F507-4C60-B73E-3B464C025D78.png)

Aber nehmen wir an, der Staat dürfte überhaupt keine Schulden machen.
Woher sollte dann das Zentralbankgeld kommen, um die Steuern zu bezahlen?
Mit privatem Buchgeld der Banken kann man das bekanntlich nicht.
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@thebighigg ·
$0.09
Sadly I think it will worldwide.  The ECB's zero rate is crazy because they have no tool to try to adjust the economy.  IN the US government overspending and printing of money has put things also in a very bad place.  I wish things didn't look so bleak but thing may get worse before they get better.  Especially if we all end up in World War 3!
!lol
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@lolzbot ·
<div class='pull-right'><center><img src="https://lolztoken.com/lolz.png"><br><a href="https://lolztoken.com">lolztoken.com</a></p><br><br><br><br></center></div><p><center><strong>How do trees get on the internet?<br>They log in.</strong><br><sub>Credit: <a href="https://peakd.com/@dksart">dksart</a></sub><br>@vikisecrets, I sent you an <a href="https://lolztoken.com">$LOLZ</a> on behalf of @thebighigg<br><br>(2/8)<br><div class='pull-left'>https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/cryptoshots.nft/23xoaireZsyZCrvZLKneUuKiKWkGSajVRi9FspoMe3F5bpYmsQR8tyvNzoiQ3uJLLfqPy.png</div><br><h2><center><a href='https://play.crypto-shots.com'>PLAY</a> & EARN <a href='https://hive-engine.com/trade/DOOM'>$DOOM</a></center></h2></center></p>
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@thehockeyfan-at ·
$0.13
Ich bin der meinunung dass so etwas nicht einfach "passiert", sondern alles in die eine oder andere richtung gelenkt wird.
Das problem dabei ist, wir sind dabei alle nur passagier und haben keinen einfluss darauf, wir können nur schauen dass wir das beste daraus machen.
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vote details (2)
@borsengelaber ·
$0.13
Denke auch eine gewisse höhere Inflation wird von den Notenbanken billigend in Kauf genommen, inflationiert das ja auch die vielen Schulden. Die werden real kleiner. Aber zweistellige Raten will man am Ende auch nicht, daher wird jetzt gegen gesteuert. Drücken wir die Daumen, dass es klappt. 
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@tornad ·
$0.09
Inflation crisis are not only in Europe but all over the world. Even in the country where I live inflation is very high, A few months ago, the price of one dollar here was 170 rupees, but now the price of one dollar has become 270 rupees. I think inflation will never go down it will always go up because I have seen it going up since I was born. So whether it is Europe or Asia or whatever.
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@vikisecrets ·
General problem of the fiat system in my opinion, fiat is designed to inflate. By design. Now even accelerated with all the crisis and money printing to solve the crisis. Don't think printing money will help against inflation. Never will.
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@tornad ·
$0.09
I am 100% agree with you.
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