It takes experience and a refined trader's psychology to run when everyone is buying and sell when everyone is bailing. Elliot Wave theory is a social finance discipline that tracks the 'price fractal' of sentiment. And this is the school I come from. I may be taken as bold here but I just entered my last long in Ether with $133 on Poloniex as my stop and $207 as the target. But this is the top of a fifth of a fifth in a large wave 1. The support for 2  corresponding to that wave 1 will likely fall between $20-45 based on preliminary calulations for a $207 top. If we break $133 I'll start to look at short positions. This long position is sized way down from my typical positions. Trading the last mile is never advised but for the experienced. I'm ready to bail. 

There are other telling signs of a top. Elliot Wave Trader, the site I learned all this 'stuff' has an analyst, Dr. Cari who uses internet searches to make calls in gold and the SP500. She, herself, is a trader of the S+P futures but does so as a doctor in psychology. She posted a special warning to all us crypto traders on the site, that ethereum was popping up in the top search terms. Typical when fervor is at its peak. She never saw that before. A colleague at the electronics company I work at last week asked me about ethereum. He heard about it at a cocktail party. I got him in at $80 and change but now am telling him to sell almost 100% higher. I'm on a biz trip in Korea and I sent him an urgent message....GET THE HELL OUT! And, when did he enter? Last week. That was quck....the end is nigh, at least for this round....

All this is mathematicsto me. Price moves of a certain magnitude begat price moves of related magnitude, like a pendulum swing. Per my updates this move extended far beyond the expectations I had but I still must view this as a terminal move and all the social signs are highlighting the likelihood. But as always we make a forecast and see what the market does.....let's watch and see. But be careful out there.

![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmQNjGL8oFatPEJ8wPeSDKUzd8cviouN9SX5vJ8G2H9KbS/image.png)


A reference on how I trade: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@wildtrader/how-i-trade-cryptos-using-elliot-wave-theory
Disclaimer:
Trading crytpos is like swimming with sharks. These are unregulated markets. While I'm providing some analysis, the risk is all yours. You can get hacked, raided, and scalped. These markets can be thin and predators lurk. Do not put any money in cryptos than you can afford to lose. Always use two factor authentication on your accounts. And, regularly take profits out and trade something else

ETH: 0x214100463968649031A9D6E6A6C5B9aDdE540e29
BTC: 14Y4V2hFUKzQZe3rVJ8cTphv583FiRvgqS