[Python!] 지옥으로 가는(?) 비트코인 가격을 예측해보자. by yoon

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kr · @yoon · Nov 20 '18 (edited)

$6.16

[Python!] 지옥으로 가는(?) 비트코인 가격을 예측해보자.

https://steemitimages.com/DQmW99L4W9PjZm3cibpqZx2TGMM4w2y16PHgWg9f6x5PoHA/yoon.png

<center> illustration by @carrotcake </center>

***

## Prophet를 이용한 비트코인 가격 예측
이번 시간에는 지옥으로(?) 가고 있는 비트코인의 가격을 예측해 볼 계획입니다. 저는 예언 능력이 눈꼽만치도 없으니, 지난번처럼 예언자라 이름 붙은 페이스북의 Prophet을 이용해 보겠습니다.

비트코인 데이터는 여러 곳에서 제공하는데 야후 파이낸스에서 비트코인 가격 데이터를 제공하기 때문에 여기에서 가져오겠습니다. BTC-USD 가격입니다.

[야후 파이낸스](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD&.tsrc=fin-srch)

파이썬에서 가져오는 명령어는 다음과 같습니다. 
```
BTC = web.DataReader('BTC-USD','yahoo',start,end)
```
#### 입력
```
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
import pandas as pd
import pandas_datareader.data as web
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
%matplotlib inline
from datetime import datetime
from fbprophet import Prophet

start = datetime(2010, 1, 1)
end = datetime(2018, 11, 19)

BTC = web.DataReader('BTC-USD','yahoo',start,end)
BTC.head()
```
#### 입력/출력 화면
![스크린샷 2018-11-19 오후 8.56.02.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmYEyk7gPvgtJgyKZS5PrkERxBmhtCBVhJce3i53sg9aG2)
2010년 7월 16일부터 가격이 있네요. 비트코인 시세 0.05달러. 1 BTC가 55원 정도 했나 봅니다.

그래프를 그려보겠습니다.
#### 입력
```
BTC['Close'].plot(figsize=(12,6), grid=True);
```

#### 입력/출력 화면
![스크린샷 2018-11-19 오후 8.57.24.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmUorf98wioWPP5YKkaSW25dX4eSjdTR1UKJ94kdtsW6xM)

급등했다가 급격하게 장렬하게 추락하고 있습니다. 시계열 ds와 종가 y만 정리합니다.

#### 입력
```
df = pd.DataFrame({'ds':BTC.index, 'y':BTC['Close']})
df.reset_index(inplace=True)
del df['Date']
df.head()

m = Prophet(daily_seasonality=True)
m.fit(df);
future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=365)
future.tail()

forecast = m.predict(future)
forecast[['ds','yhat','yhat_lower','yhat_upper']].tail()

m.plot(forecast);
```
#### 입력/출력 화면
![스크린샷 2018-11-19 오후 9.00.25.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmYzvVzouMJhvJf8w3gMzveZGys7AFjQaDzs2MrwTvRMYd)

이렇게 떨어지고 있는데, 올라간다고 나오는군요. 그동안 계속 오르는 추세였으니까 그런 것 같습니다. 이것만 보고 희망회로를 돌리면 안되기 때문에 입력 기간을 바꾸어 보겠습니다.

## 전망2
비트코인 가격 데이터를 2013년 1월 1일부터 입력한 결과입니다. 추세가 길지 않으니 더이상 상승하는 걸로만 나오지는 않는군요. 2015년 1월 1일부터 입력하면 또 다르게 나오겠죠?

![스크린샷 2018-11-19 오후 9.03.21.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmS9FNW9xzxikeQjEkYs4YhtCXJG9NMs4xfMSiDXSMASgp)

## 전망3
2015년부터의 데이터를 이용하면 하락하는 추세로 나옵니다. 심지어 제로를 넘어 마이너스로 향하는... (이것이 진정한 지옥?)

입력 데이터를 어떻게 사용하느냐에 따라 저마다 다른 결과가 나오는데, 예측이란 게 얼마나 쉽지 않은 일인지 조금이나마 느껴집니다.

![스크린샷 2018-11-19 오후 9.06.27.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmZrBs2oaQAoTpSs4hY9ZjSqydN8gXpRjFB9Zpowqv23TX)

prophet한테 이런 예측을 맡겨도 되는 건가 싶습니다.

👍 sndbox, bramd, joceo00, busy.pay, hwan100, steem-ua, khaiyoui, bukio, leesongyi, leesol, yoon, golbang, tombstone, newiz, kbaek81, kevinwong, silkroadgo, girina79, mastertri, wabangcute, bbooaae, eric-boucher, tk0319, feyee95, kyunga, pairplay, absolutefive, gomdory, woolnami, pys, s292153s, beoped, yellowboy1010, anpigon, clarkgold, bree1042, sndbox-alpha, accelerator, playitforward, paolobeneforti, bitrocker2020, mintvilla, ejemai, shortcut, steemitph, twotoedsloth, mishana, nfc, opsteemit, suonghuynh, steemitboard, sonsie, nukunit, kanade1025, eforucom, jaff8, roostermine, pewuf, krguidedog, dayoung, mrblinddraw, woolnyeo, hansikhouse, zord189, and 133 others

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`percent_hbd`	10,000
`post_id`	75,551,297
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`author_curate_reward`	""

properties (23)vote details (197)

voter	rshares	pct
tombstone	133,604,137,590	0.6%
kevinwong	107,773,966,246	1.5%
eric-boucher	82,720,529,172	25%
mrwang	160,802,291	0.75%
arconite	404,510,874	0.75%
shortcut	14,678,107,043	10%
treaphort	110,955,536	4.12%
eforucom	8,578,781,950	1.29%
busy.pay	759,870,494,759	3.66%
golbang	168,451,108,726	25%
hansikhouse	5,975,526,401	12.5%
heymattsokol	944,746,264	15%
ejemai	15,241,770,551	10%
paolobeneforti	16,627,067,954	15%
silviabeneforti	5,617,380,276	10%
steemitboard	11,545,302,969	1%
alflo	510,033,961	100%
yoon	201,349,451,117	100%
hwan100	440,208,439,333	40%
erb	3,363,872,437	10%
teachblogger	486,037,746	5%
kenan1989	2,550,676,852	50%
toru	556,739,354	100%
leesol	228,869,872,927	100%
eurogee	515,845,890	5%
nukunit	10,521,044,609	100%
pys	45,658,706,481	100%
cryptastic	2,764,008,026	10%
luvabi	3,645,909,779	12.5%
world-travel-pro	895,420,813	0.5%
bitrocker2020	16,561,420,453	10%
jkkim	26,837,465	10%
girina79	99,565,889,692	25%
tristan143	552,983,301	100%
s292153s	39,298,290,994	100%
leesongyi	239,292,625,248	100%
asbear	3,985,576,501	12.5%
kemal13	1,924,444,993	30%
bearone	4,177,092,415	5%
stylegold	762,742,789	100%
bree1042	30,964,629,404	30%
reddragonfly	3,140,370,536	20%
beoped	38,851,729,888	26%
jayna	1,520,506,482	3.75%
faluthi01	259,399,455	25%
heather2222	45,346,159	100%
khaiyoui	268,753,709,641	10%
affiedalfayed	547,153,462	5%
carrotcake	1,481,999,990	5%
klynic	248,454,532	5%
wngud21	7,423,046	100%
coloringiship	3,870,573,556	12.5%
sndbox	2,508,626,772,020	25%
clarkgold	35,106,713,463	100%
bramd	1,505,880,582,320	20%
taukproung85	45,599,636	100%
wildy	253,474,093	50%
wabangcute	89,791,482,499	100%
mintvilla	15,392,093,302	30%
leotrap	2,216,823,909	2.5%
kanade1025	10,482,820,915	100%
minampusan	127,760,377	100%
somethingburger	2,309,446,777	25%
tanyaschutte	145,631,270	3.75%
steemitph	14,159,202,641	25%
yellowboy1010	37,817,575,733	100%
sonsie	11,004,906,254	100%
bleyker	164,031,561	50%
mastertri	99,278,756,765	20%
dayoung	6,355,330,263	12.5%
jadabug	449,467,539	1.2%
nurhayati	263,685,490	0.75%
accelerator	18,763,214,582	1.4%
markjason	1,411,963,337	50%
anna-mi	633,223,843	25%
gnarlyanimations	2,551,955,820	12.5%
krguidedog	7,448,520,835	12.5%
espoem	3,337,845,946	2%
playitforward	18,404,242,696	15%
critic-on	144,093,100	5%
penauthor	314,195,726	2.5%
mrblinddraw	6,259,201,602	45%
animagic	552,045,466	50%
zord189	5,959,193,286	5%
sam.hsuu	791,035,208	5%
pewuf	8,146,082,646	100%
nanastraybutt	122,269,145	5%
explorernations	550,931,231	2.5%
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zenc	91,340,846	25%
zulfan88	73,089,270	25%
smaeunabs	2,427,010,376	25%
jaff8	8,284,629,497	10%
steemtaker	2,222,264,578	2%
scuzzy	190,140,454	2.5%
spectrums	244,313,982	50%
feyee95	62,630,116,095	30%
nairadaddy	718,065,546	2.5%
berkaytekinsen	392,686,025	25%
murad06	128,933,197	25%
jeffbernst	276,778,384	10%
curazao	71,317,707	50%
sireh	2,616,755,620	12.5%
woolnami	51,175,725,242	25%
owaishassankhan	78,410,986	25%
aidnessanchez	119,215,205	12.5%
sagor5828	71,337,090	12.5%
flashfiction	718,226,034	25%
asyrafahamed	565,377,056	15%
paragon99	350,312,282	25%
roostermine	8,192,653,339	100%
absolutefive	51,775,130,029	100%
fun2learn	1,094,760,714	1.6%
crypto3d	4,503,896,523	25%
gky	101,433,600	25%
adamzi	750,100,220	12.5%
silkroadgo	104,495,269,051	25%
mishana	13,454,950,981	60%
muzige	38,946,891	100%
newiz	133,293,912,154	51%
dennis76	1,805,493,125	100%
coinfarmer165	448,591,127	100%
warpedpoetic	798,396,703	3.75%
sndbox-alpha	24,379,711,454	50%
kyunga	59,006,854,517	50%
kaeo	200,788,144	50%
ameliabartlett	593,052,014	3.75%
rinbird	200,892,474	50%
joceo00	881,714,702,570	24%
aimei	89,573,727	25%
medical-hall	191,957,074	50%
eightbitfiction	72,056,234	25%
mbadayee	345,465,006	25%
opsteemit	12,269,825,285	100%
lifediaries2nd	106,070,102	25%
vygimau5	162,180,206	50%
sanctuspierre	102,554,029	25%
onepercentbetter	2,572,321,481	1%
ibez	100,524,269	25%
anak123	101,013,089	12.5%
sunstrip	6,379,469	100%
ezravandi	447,670,306	2.29%
carloniere	101,609,010	50%
juned0292	72,135,455	25%
effofex	82,086,423	0.7%
sd974201	1,591,163,485	5%
james0605	533,654,692	100%
angelinafx	2,000,101,421	1.29%
blockmountain	143,077,488	25%
f-steemit	197,853,758	0.5%
minigate	1,084,441,753	25%
occpresents	910,882,553	37.5%
tpvoter1	69,147,974	100%
recordpool	277,642,850	10%
sigmund	77,163,540	12.5%
woolnyeo	6,108,431,359	25%
apteacher	970,905,316	10%
share4every1	128,477,566	100%
crazyluv	168,637,008	25%
kyle-event	51,457,425	100%
anpigon	35,214,873,316	100%
ferryfansuri	105,895,016	25%
goldenturtle	136,448,900	37.5%
shahabudin	163,405,631	50%
lifekeys	158,877,450	37.5%
zam398	115,001,239	25%
merlion	1,056,915,163	1%
sarez	930,041,286	12.5%
kbaek81	113,464,098,116	100%
donnyandrian	193,480,661	50%
suonghuynh	12,010,614,852	0.25%
carpet.duck	168,108,771	25%
pairplay	56,768,209,268	100%
msjito	86,287,595	25%
nailyourhome	1,097,985,044	1.6%
scorpiusdata	527,717,810	100%
pairplay1	1,620,103,695	100%
tk0319	67,511,853,887	100%
boyacun	161,797,068	25%
pairplay-en	0	100%
pairplay-en1	6,350,762	100%
jyinvest	2,388,192,063	1%
ujhg1004	774,015,273	25%
bukio	240,495,393,625	3.13%
diyanti86	398,603,498	25%
twotoedsloth	13,968,144,491	25%
raghao	411,193,379	12.5%
delegate4upvot	1,146,165,276	1.6%
wakeprince	4,002,598,995	100%
up1	817,462,469	2.2%
bbooaae	86,169,623,698	25%
pemburubitcoin	71,362,439	25%
megaraz	63,033,210	100%
steem-ua	287,111,197,767	2.24%
gomdory	51,204,734,630	100%
nfc	13,418,271,516	1%
ozgurcinarli	327,780,232	25%

@anpigon · Nov 19 '18

prophet한테 스팀잇도 전망도 물어봐주세요~~ㅎㅎ
넘 재미있습니다.ㅋㅋ

properties (22)

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@yoon · Nov 20 '18

알겠습니다 ^^

properties (22)

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@anpigon · Nov 20 '18

감사합니다.ㅋ

properties (22)

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@bukio · Nov 19 '18

짱짱맨 호출에 응답하여 보팅하였습니다. 꾸준한 활동을 응원합니다.

북이오(@bukio)는 창작자와 함께 하는 첫번째 프로그램을 만들었습니다. 이를 위해 첫번째 길드(Guild) 구성을 위한 [공지글](https://steemit.com/bukio/@bukio/5ypkpr)을 게시하였습니다. 영문 문학작품의 한글 번역에 관심이 있는 분들의 많은 참여를 바랍니다. 고맙습니다.

properties (22)

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@gomdory · Nov 19 '18

![](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmSpSf3UTPCZUwCEfi1sWKKcUXWKH3SnpEaYaqRuWu7omz)
@yoon님 넘치는 사랑 감사합니다. 곰도뤼~

[[곰돌이 명성도 55기념 이벤트] 너의 보팅을 두배로 돌려줄께~ / 스팀잇에 빛을 비춰줘~ lightsteem alpha](https://steemit.com/gomdory/@blockchainstudio/55-lightsteem-alpha)

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@jyinvest · Nov 19 '18

과거 데이터를 바탕으로 임의의 패턴을 만들어내는것 뿐이니까요. 큰의미를 부여할 필요는 없다고 봅니다~

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@kanade1025 · Nov 19 '18

ㄷㄷ마이너스라니....
현실이 되지는 않겠죠? 아마...

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@steem-ua · Nov 19 '18

#### Hi @yoon!

Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your **UA** account score is currently 4.667 which ranks you at **#1629** across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has dropped 58 places in the last three days (old rank 1571).

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 286 contributions, your post is ranked at **#52**.
##### Evaluation of your UA score:

* Some people are already following you, keep going!
* The readers like your work!
* Good user engagement!


**Feel free to join our [@steem-ua Discord server](https://discord.gg/KpBNYGz)**

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@steemitboard · Nov 19 '18

Congratulations @yoon! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/60x60/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/postallweek.png</td><td>You published a post every day of the week</td></tr>
</table>

<sub>_[Click here to view your Board of Honor](https://steemitboard.com/@yoon)_</sub>
<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>


To support your work, I also upvoted your post!


**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**
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properties (22)