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https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/us0722-crosstabs-nyt071122/33ffa85627ee4648/full.pdf

61% of Dems want to nominate a different person than Biden in 2024. Though he's still commanding 85% favorability among Dems. I think the latter will be controlling if Biden decides to seek re-election.

Of the Dems that want a different nominee, age and job performance are the biggest reasons at 34% and 35% respectively.

Biden's approval rating is only 33% with 60% disapproval. Among Dems his approval is 70% and disapproval 25%. Among Republicans his approval is 7% and disapproval is 93%.

Despite all of this, in a 2024 rematch Biden gets 44% versus Trump's 41%. Biden beats Trump for all ages save for 45-64. Biden even beats Trump among college educated white people 57% to 33%. Trump beats Biden among white voters overall only 46% to 42% (for context that's pretty terrible for a Republican candidate).

Obviously both the GOP and Dems would be better off without Trump or Biden, but barring health or legal issues I'm not sure there is an opening if either seek the nominations.

My question is if he doesn't run or they nominate someone else who would it be? Harris? Her head to heads aren't great. Who else would it be? I don't want Biden to run again personally, but who is likely to replace him?