![https://public.tableau.com/profile/helix6052](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/zafrada/452p0CE5-image.png)


We're now at about 2.25%, and it appears to be spreading significantly faster than I expected base on the UK history.  (It may be because it's not competing with the Spanish variant that was already widespread in the UK.)   I had expected about 6x increases monthly, but it appears to be running more like 10x.  

If it follows 6x monthly from here, that's 15% in early March and majority status by late March.  

If it follows a 10x rate, that's 25% by early March and majority status by mid March.  Either way, sometime in March we're going to have a noticeable increase in contagion, and the full effect of the new variant in April.  We're on track, though, to have the vast majority of our most vulnerable vaccinated before then, but we may see a short-lived new wave of cases.  (Eventually our vaccination rate will push it down.)  

It's a *really* good idea to get the case rate as low as possible before March.