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| title | "Bitcoin Market Weekly Insights." |
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| body | "Hi investors, it's been a quiet week in crypto but let's review what's happened.
# Bitcoin Price Action.
__________
Big daddy crypto is trading at $9114 USD a pop at the time of writing...
...and we're only up a paltry 7% since the halving and still very much moving within that macro range we've been in since June 2019.
Search trend for Bitcoin show a relative disinterest from mainstream...
... which suggests that spot market support is likely driven by smaller institutional players and sophisticated retail investors (much like ourselves).
Bitcoin is not the niche product it was 4-5 years ago but the protracted bear market we're in has killed most of the buzz it had conjured during the insane run-up of 2017.
It will probably take a clear break of previous all-time high levels to entice the normies to pour back in. This could take another few years so as always patience is key. This is a slow play.
# Market Sentiment.
Sentiment-wise, the aggregate long-short ratio reveals clear post-halving bullishness in the market...
... notice the sharp drop in shorts around mid-April 2020 which for me shows clear evidence that the market mostly went long in anticipation of the halving and has stayed long ever since.
Despite the hype the halving itself was mostly a non-event which barely registered in term of price or total hash-rate...
... here in macro....
It's likely that a number of boutique miners had to close shops but their absence was mostly balanced out by more sophisticated operations putting [newer and more efficient mining machines](https://www.asicminervalue.com/miners/bitmain/antminer-s17-pro-53th) to work.
___________
# Macro.
_________
On the macro level, Bitcoin is still smashing other assets YtD.
More generally I sense a burst of optimism as we slowly exit the hysteria that was the COVID crisis to go into the summer.
Confidence in better days ahead has been reflected in both the Bitcoin and the stock markets.
As countries re-open their economy and the dust starts to settle, we'll start to get a better understanding of whether nation-wide lock-downs were justified.
I personally have a feeling that most of the COVID prophets of doom will be proved wrong and this whole thing will come down as an episode of social-media induced mass-hysteria.
____________
# Wrap Up.
____________
If you have some time on your hands I recommend you do yourself a favor and listen to this [brilliant conversation about market cycles](https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/howard-marks-investor-market-cycle/) recorded in 2018 with macro-investors Howard Marks.
This podcast packs so much insights and practical knowledge in just over a knowledge, it's amazing and it will make you reflect on your own investing strategy.
________
That's it for this week's market update, see you next weekend.
Until then,
F0x
" |
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