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@xnonymous is having complications <br /><br /> Posted via <a href="https://d.buzz" data-link="promote-link">D.Buzz</a>" |
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| parent_permlink | walllstreetbets |
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| author | cryptoindex |
|---|
| permlink | nfps-tomorrow-and-the-treasuries-market-tlt-govt-agg-20210403t012757z |
|---|
| title | "NFPs tomorrow and the treasuries market (TLT, GOVT, AGG)" |
|---|
| body | "While everyone has their grand day off (including me, even though honestly I should be at the desk because the mortgage/TBA market is still trading), we have the currently most important piece of data to come out of the United States.
(as an aside, right now NFPs are 1st, even though I can see CPI inflation becoming the most watched in the next couple of months)
Those are the non-farm payrolls. Basically employment numbers, or how many of our fellow apes have finally hit 0.00 on the account and now gainfully employed and contributing to society through manning the Wendy's counter. The more wagecucks, the more spending. The more spending, the more companies have to hire wagecucks and so on.
https://preview.redd.it/v8svd5o9soq61.png?width=1146&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f1d0fb1341907cc26729ba79b968c4eb6a39698
I fully expect a blowout number, well above the 647k which is what we're playing with (expectations are set at 650k, so the higher it is, the more unexpectedly bearish for fixed income, and the lower it is below 650k, the more bids there will be for fixed income).
Why? March takes into account the massive jump in vaccinations. This also plays into the fact that in March, around 20 states have increasingly lowered their age restrictions for vaccines. Every reasonable business owner sees this, and because there is a certain 1-2 week or so lag between interviews. Remember in March 2020 when everyone is trying to front-run the dips, June/July front-run the recovery, and now Citadel trying to front-run the RH GME Diamond Hand Apes? This is the same thing but now in the employment market.
And this time, all the job gains are in the service industry, the same industry that vomited jobs as we entered the lockdowns. Do you need someone with skills to flip burgers? No. This is all low-hanging (easy to train, no need for previous experience) fruit that's about to get harvested not by hand, but with an industrial thresher that will make your mom blush. Companies are able to hire truckloads of these $7.25/hr minwagecucks because they're cheap, and this time they're needed. In every economic cycle, low-wage service sector jobs are the first to get dumped off the cliff, and first to get shoveled back in. We're just seeing the start of this.
**What does this mean for:**
**Equities**: all these boomer/doomers need to STFU and go suck Cramer's ass hair. A rising yield is good for equities because if a treasury is pulling in 2%/yr RISKFREE, equities need to go higher. Why did tech do a 10% correction during the last 10yr jump from 1.5% to 1.75%? Because no one expected it to go that high. Now my fellow retards at the office and I are expecting 2% to hit as early as June, and so is every other person I'm talking to (mostly my mom). 2% is as good as priced in right now, and because everyone is expecting it, I do not expect an equities tantrum... unless we somehow cross that line and go straight into 2.5%
**Bonds**: this has what I've been mostly doing, apart from some ag and metals. Simple as that - yields go up, bond prices go down. No need to worry about blah blah how this will translate into growth. From basically the realization that the US is going to lead the way with vaccinations, this thing has been going straight down.
https://preview.redd.it/4snuzk6jvoq61.png?width=1375&format=png&auto=webp&s=40b9e493aa5151d8d946c0912ab62d15a7698345
​
Why tomorrow? Equity markets are closed. The treasuries market will be open, but extremely light in volume. Any blowout number, coupled with no one to trade may lead to a vaccum, amplifying single direction moves. Perhaps we might even get a [rare circuit breaker](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/price-limits.html#interestRates) in the treasuries futures markets.
Good luck all. Positions below. A lot of 129 Puts for June, which I don't expect to go ITM.
https://preview.redd.it/q080gnolvoq61.png?width=1299&format=png&auto=webp&s=93ec4c9a45655e6b41b25e0fed413e32fb3a63a7
Also you guys buying TLT puts are kinda throwing money away. IV for Puts of the May chain are like 15%. Similar IV for Puts of the June chain (also 50 days to exp) on /ZN (10yr treasury futures) is around 5%. I know it's 20yr vs 10yr but srsly the duration should not mean you're paying 3x as much for volatility. Larry Fink or whoever is writing these is laughing to the bank.
​
https://preview.redd.it/scuha2povoq61.png?width=1356&format=png&auto=webp&s=147cd646725b9f1d23923cefcef1d865b67ea2d8
https://preview.redd.it/mz35i1duvoq61.png?width=1387&format=png&auto=webp&s=abfe02a38be83eec42b7136ca46823a97d56697d" |
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