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SegWit2X Scenarios Are Looking Way More Complicated Then I Originally Thought by brianphobos

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· @brianphobos ·
$22.13
SegWit2X Scenarios Are Looking Way More Complicated Then I Originally Thought
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<p>A lot of people have to decide what to do with their money in the next week because of this upcoming hard fork. &nbsp;Reading further into the situation today was interesting and presented a lot more important dates then I initially thought there were going to be. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>For starters I was thinking the fork was going to occur on Nov 18th but <strong>now I'm seeing as early as Nov 15th</strong>. &nbsp;&nbsp;So be prepared for that because if you are using Coinbase of GDAX they are going to freeze deposits and withdraws of Bitcoin for 24 hours before and 24 hours after the fork. &nbsp;&nbsp;So don't run yourself into a corner there depending on your strategy. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>There are some people considering selling their SegWit2x (B2X) coins on the futures markets on an exchange like HitBTC. &nbsp;&nbsp;Well it looks like $1100/B2X coin and $6100/B1X coin is approximately what is showing on the futures markets so I don't know that there will be a big gain realized implementing that strategy. &nbsp;We don't know what the markets will do after the fork either. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;With Bitcoin Cash I was able to act fast and I was one of the first people to be able to sell out of that once Bittrex opened deposits. &nbsp;&nbsp;So sometimes it can come down to if you can beat others to the punch if everyone is selling. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Also another thing to note is it is looking like B1X (original Bitcoin) could end up having 100 minute block times if 90% of the hashing power goes to the B2X chain. &nbsp;&nbsp;</h3>
<p>The network is already bogged down enough. &nbsp;That would be terrible to be honest. &nbsp;&nbsp;What if the hashing power ends up being 50/50? Could each of them have 50 minute blocks so both networks will be terribly slow? &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>Another worry is that it will take months for the difficulty to retarget so if B1X (Original Bitcoin) has a lot less hashing power that network could be severely cripple for months and it already isn't doing so great performance wise to be honest. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>I'm pulling in a lot of information form a lot of difference sources but Jimmy Song wrote a post on Medium that has a <a href="https://medium.com/@jimmysong/segwit2x-game-theory-scenarios-part-1-7f863904a72">pretty detailed breakdown</a>. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<h1>Plan of Action&nbsp;</h1>
<p>I haven't entirely figured out exactly what I'm going to do but there is one thing for sure. &nbsp;<strong>I'm kicking my plans up a few days and want to be in position by about Nov 13th to be ready. &nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I might try multiple approaches. &nbsp;&nbsp;One thing I'm almost for sure going to do is sell some Bitcoin prior to this fork to take some profits off the table. &nbsp;&nbsp;I'm not sure whether I will go to fiat or to the STEEM Backed Dollar at this time. &nbsp;Another strategy might be to take some of my holdings and to convert it to Litecoin, Monero, and STEEM. &nbsp;&nbsp;The third approach will be to participate in the fork by keeping the coins in my Electrum wallet or keep the coins on GDAX. &nbsp;&nbsp;I could employ both strategies. &nbsp;The stuff on GDAX I could sell as soon as possible after the fork happens and the holding in my wallet on my computer I could hold until this all shakes out. &nbsp;&nbsp;The biggest fear is that the B1X (Original Bitcoin) chain gets crippled and there is a huge panic and you can't move coins around. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>I'm probably not going to sell the B2X coins on the HitBTC futures market because I feel like my coins will get tied up there somehow. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the next couple of days based on different support from major players in the industry I'm going to pick my strategies. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<h2><strong>What are your strategies for the fork? &nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></h2>
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<p>Thank you for reading my post and please consider following me <a href="https://steemit.com/@brianphobos">@brianphobos</a></p>
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vote details (53)
@ats-david ·
$0.05
I already sold some BTC for LTC a few days ago. Iโ€™m hoping that BTC will finally die from excruciatingly slow block times and that people will finally see that itโ€™s truly an awful shitcoin.

Where else will crypto enthusiasts go? Who knows? Maybe theyโ€™ll start to accept the truth...or flock to the next biggest coin and hope the noobs will follow.
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@brianphobos ·
That LTC play is going well today!   I have some LTC but not as much as I would like at the moment.  With all the issues with BTC I didn't think the run could go this long with how poor it performs technologically.   Can you imagine if Amazon tried accept it right now?   There have been rumors but it is sort of laughable to think about.   It performed way better in 2013.  Can you imagine if your cell phone from 2013 was better than yours today?   It just sound ridiculous.   

Yet people kept buying into that brand despite the scaling issues and infighting.   

It has all really surprised me for sure.
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@happymoneyman ·
$0.05
Drama! I've been thinking the same ways. So many angles. At first I was just going to hoard BTC and get double coins. Now it looks like that could put me at a risk with little profit. 

I tossed around the idea of going heavier into Alt coins while they are cheap... I like that idea. 

I've also put a bit into BCH to hedge against a flip flp. 
There is always the possibility whales collude and go heavy into BCH to try and make huge gains. 

Game theory shows big boys having some pretty big incentives to make BCH the new real bitcoin and leave everyone else holding the bag with the segwit chains. I don't know if they could pull it off, but that would be an outrageous scenario.
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@brianphobos ·
I like your thinking on the BCH scenario.   I could see it happening and it makes a lot of sense to be honest.  

Hmmmm you have me thinking.  :-)   But yeah there are so many scenarios that could play out for sure.   

That would be nuts if Bitcoin Cash became the real Bitcoin and the Segwit chains tore each other apart.   

Thank you for responding!  My plans might have changed slightly.   I think I will retake a position in Bitcoin Cash   :-)
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@happymoneyman ·
Right now I bought back my BCH. So I hold the same amount of coins as BTC. 
This is just a simple hedge against something crazy. 
But I'm considering going heavier, for the long shot high reward...

Hard to say. But like you said. Things have gotten really complicated. There are so many players now.
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@luigi-tecnologo ·
I agree with your strategy, with Monero, Steem and Steem Dollars you can have a mix to minimize the risk
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@brianphobos ·
It will be interesting how it plays out but I'm growing more concerned with the chaos that could be created when this fork hits.
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@luigi-tecnologo ·
Yeah, the fact that there is no consensus in the exchanges about which one is "Bitcoin" will be  a big issue
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@meesterboom ·
I all just gonna hold and ride. Potentially stupid but it has served me well so far!
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@brianphobos ·
Just Ride it out!   It is a pretty good strategy!
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vote details (1)
@meesterboom ·
Hehe, mostly!
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