You're right. The certainty that comes with BTC is almost not present anywhere, but I think this is mostly because of the people pushing the "no-alt season agenda" and not because the market is busted..
However, there's still a long time to go. I went away at the beginning of 2021 and only came back around August of that same year, and the market already pumped as much. Nowadays I'm paying attention to technical analysis and not listening to regular people. 

Overall, the only thing we can do as lay man is to predict and hope.