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# AI Progress Slowing Down? Experts Weigh In

## The Debate Over AI Scaling Limits

**The Information** reports that AI progress may be grinding to a halt, with OpenAI and Google facing slowdowns in model improvements using traditional scaling methods. This has sparked a debate among AI experts and researchers.

### OpenAI's Slowdown and the Scaling Laws

According to the article, the increase in quality of OpenAI's upcoming Orion model is far smaller compared to the jump between GPT-3 and GPT-4. This suggests that the core assumption of scaling laws - that throwing more compute, data, and training time at models will lead to continuous improvement - may be reaching its limits.

### The Opposing Views

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However, not everyone agrees that AI progress is hitting a wall. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, argues that there is no wall and that the AI field is advancing rapidly. Some researchers who have left OpenAI, concerned about safety, also disagree with the idea of a slowdown, saying the technology is progressing quickly and that caution is needed.

On the other hand, Gary Marcus, a vocal critic of deep learning, is ecstatic about the potential slowdown, seeing it as a validation of his warnings about the limitations of the technology.

### Breakthroughs and Benchmarks

The article highlights several recent AI breakthroughs, such as AlphaFold 3, AlphaProtein, and AI systems outperforming humans on complex tasks like the International Mathematical Olympiad. It also discusses the Arc AGI benchmark, which is designed to be challenging for large language models and test their true reasoning abilities.

## The Future of AI Scaling

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The debate over AI scaling limits is ongoing, with experts on both sides presenting compelling arguments. As the field continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see whether the scaling laws hold true or if new approaches and techniques emerge to overcome the perceived limitations.

Ultimately, the future of AI progress will depend on the ability of researchers and developers to push the boundaries of what is possible, while also addressing the important questions of safety and alignment.

I knew it literally posted right after you regarding the same thing in this case. The walls might just be rumors