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## The Troubling Decline of Scientific Progress

Contrary to popular rumors, Sabine Hossenfelder's biggest worry isn't pineapple on pizza - it's that scientific progress is slowing down, and that much of what gets published in academia is increasingly ineffective.

### The Paradox of Exponential Growth

At first glance, science appears to be thriving. The number of scientists worldwide has increased rapidly, both in absolute numbers and as a share of the population. Similarly, the number of scientific publications is growing exponentially in almost all fields. This has led many to believe that science is doing just fine, with more papers to discuss, more conferences to attend, and more grants to hire more people.

### The Lack of Economic Impact

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However, the data tells a different story. Economists measure productivity by comparing inputs (like labor, capital, and technology) with outputs (goods and services that can be sold). This "total factor productivity" shows that despite the steep increase in the number of researchers, the growth in productivity has remained largely constant over the past decades. 

This trend is not limited to the economy as a whole - it can be seen in specific sectors as well. Agricultural yields and the number of new drugs approved by the FDA have both failed to keep pace with the growing number of researchers.

### The Decline of Novelty and Disruptiveness

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Further studies have found similar patterns when looking at the novelty and disruptiveness of scientific work. The number of new connections between technology sectors in US patents has been declining since the 1960s, while the narrowness of inventions has increased. Analyses of 45 million papers worldwide have shown a noticeable decrease in the number of disruptive ideas, even in top journals like Nature and Science.

### Possible Causes

The decline in scientific progress is not due to a lack of funding. R&D spending as a share of GDP has remained relatively stable over the decades. Nor is it simply a matter of "low-hanging fruit" having been picked - the problem is global and systemic, affecting many different disciplines, countries, and economic sectors.

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