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# The Shifting Sands of Global Conflict: Insights from Neil Ferguson

## The New Cold War and the Prisoner Exchange

Neil Ferguson begins by noting that the recent prisoner exchange between the U.S. and Russia, involving the release of journalist Evan Gershkovich, is fresh evidence that we are in "Cold War II." He sees this as a very "cold war thing to do" - exchanging prisoners with the other side. Ferguson believes this signals that Russia, along with China, Iran, and North Korea, are on the opposing side in this new Cold War.

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While acknowledging the importance of Gershkovich's release, Ferguson expresses concern that such prisoner exchanges could set up poor incentives, leading to more Americans being incarcerated on unfounded charges. However, he believes the larger "pieces on the chessboard" - such as the conflict over Ukraine - are more significant than individual cases of detained journalists or spies.

## The War in Ukraine: Divergent Futures

Ferguson outlines two potential futures for the war in Ukraine, depending on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

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If Vice President Harris wins, Ferguson expects a continuation of the current policy of supporting Ukraine's war aims, but not to the extent that it can achieve victory. He sees this as a risky strategy, as it could lead to Ukraine's eventual defeat if U.S. support wanes over time.

In contrast, a Trump victory would result in a radically different approach. Ferguson believes Trump would put immense economic and military pressure on Russia to force Putin to the negotiating table, aiming for a Korean-style armistice rather than a comprehensive peace agreement. This, he argues, may be more palatable to Ukraine's leadership than the current "drip-feeding" of support from the Biden administration.

## The Middle East: Brewing Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah

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Ferguson turns his attention to the potential for a new war between Israel and Hezbollah, which he sees as highly likely to occur this August. He believes that Israel's recent strikes against its enemies, following Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington, have set the stage for retaliation from Hezbollah and Iran.

Ferguson argues that the political divisions within Israel have been somewhat muted since the events of October 7th, which have created a new sense of unity and purpose in the country. He suggests that even liberal Israelis have become more accepting of an aggressive policy towards Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and now Hezbollah.

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The decision to potentially strike Hezbollah, Ferguson contends, is driven by a desire to act preemptively, rather than waiting for the group to further build up its arsenal. He sees this as a calculated risk, given the potential for a bloody conflict, but one that the Israeli government believes is necessary to address the growing threat.

## The U.S. Political Landscape: Dueling Machines and Personality Cults

Turning to the U.S. political landscape, Ferguson argues that the upcoming 2024 election remains highly unpredictable, despite the current state of the polls. He believes that both the Republican and Democratic party machines are highly effective at delivering most states and counties to their respective parties, leaving little contested ground.

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However, Ferguson sees a key difference between the two parties. While the Democratic party remains under the control of its wealthy elite, the "donor class," the Republican party has fallen under the sway of the "MAGA movement" and the personality cult around Donald Trump. This, he argues, makes the Republican party more prone to self-harming mistakes, potentially giving Harris a chance to win the presidency.

Ferguson also addresses the issue of inflation, acknowledging that both the Trump and Biden administrations share blame for the current economic situation. He argues that the voters' perception of Biden's handling of the economy is unfair, as the president has presided over strong economic growth and employment, despite the high inflation rates.

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## Convergence and Divergence: Comparing the UK and the US

In closing, Ferguson draws comparisons between the political and social landscapes of the UK and the US. He notes that while the UK retains a sense of tradition and continuity in its politics, the US political discourse has a more "coarse" and "contact sport" quality, reminiscent of the 19th century observations of Charles Dickens.

However, Ferguson also identifies areas of convergence, such as the challenges posed by aging populations, the tensions around immigration, and the shared experience of grappling with the complexities of healthcare systems. He suggests that despite institutional differences, there is a growing sense of similarity in the lived experiences of Britons and Americans.

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Overall, Neil Ferguson's insights provide a nuanced and thought-provoking perspective on the shifting global landscape, the ongoing conflicts, and the political dynamics shaping the future of both the US and the UK.