<p>At this point in time that seems rather unlikely. Eventually it will happen, but it may take a little longer.</p>
<p>There’s an interesting observation to be made in recent months:</p>
<p>&gt; After each market crash/dip BTC recovers first and much more. Altcoins, when they recover, recover not only slower but also less.</p>
<p>While it is too early to call that a pattern, it is definitely something to observe and consider for a moment. And I think there’s a reason for.</p>
<p>But first, I invite you to check it for yourself and compare the following tokens YOY (Year Over Year):</p>
<ul>
  <li>Bitcoin</li>
  <li>Ethereum</li>
  <li>Bitcoin Cash</li>
  <li>Litecoin</li>
  <li>Dash</li>
  <li>Binance Coin</li>
  <li>Steem</li>
</ul>
<p>That’s right, with the exception of Binance Coin (BNB) only BTC grew. Binance Coin, obviously, being the exception because it was introduced only recently and also has a very specific and already real use case. That, also, despite growth in active userbase for all tokens mentioned.</p>
<p>Other than that... it’s all about BTC’s dominance and market observers will correctly note that with each dip BTC’s dominance grows again in that period, while money goes out of the altcoin sector.</p>
<p>There’s a reason for that, and right now, we need to call BTC “our savior” because of it. While BTC doesn’t have an intrinsic value, BTC does have an actual cost: <em>complexity</em>.</p>
<p>The complexity, and thus production cost, of BTC is defined by the total hash rate participating at that time. This is where it gets interesting because in recent years millions and millions have been invested in hardware and infrastructure. Right now it is said that around 60% of all BTC is mined by two Chinese “conglomerates” who have invested around $1.2 billion in hardware, location, and infrastructure(*).</p>
<p>Considering those amounts is highly unlikely that both will ever allow the complexity to drop below the current average production cost of $4.5k/BTC, which would mean that to generate a guaranteed ROI over x years, they will always keep the value of BTC at at least $5.5k. This seems to be backed by the market as well so far, since we have only seen few dips below $6k.</p>
<p>What does this mean in reality? With each dip money flows from the altcoin market back to BTC, the “benchmark” with an actual production cost and also a core which has survived hardfork after hardfork, further consolidating both its reputation and resilience each time.</p>
<p>As markets stabilize again after every dip, it seems that less money flows back in the altcoins scene but BTC continues its relentless (YOY/historical) growth, while altcoins take longer to first stabilize and then register growth again.</p>
<p>As to the initial question?</p>
<p>When will altcoins take over from BTC in total value? The day more nations have implemented regulations, accepted cryptoes and thus more “old money” also from funds and banks will enter the market.</p>
<p>(*) They mostly likely have a solid war chest, and not the whole amount is actually already invested.</p>