If you see bitcoin price is manipulated since 2-3 months just use stop loss and if you are day trader you should use stop loss and if you are long term holder and invested at high price no need to worry at all bitcoin is future of world and it price will be increased at the end of year so keep safe trading and invest for long term instead of being short term.

Safest thing to do is put half or all of that BTC in Steem and power it up. Start posting and curating on Steem and at least your crypto will grow and not just lose value or stay the same. 

Bitcoin has been around for 10 years and as such when you look at what is happening to Bitcoin today it’s important to look at it from a macro perspective.

Every investment falls into two basic categories, those that are driven by underlying unit economics and those that are speculative. Don’t think of this as two discrete categories but instead a venn diagram. Meaning that investments that have underlying unit economics can still have speculation built into their value, and vice versa, those that are purely speculative may over time find some intrinsic value given the level of investment and interest devoted to them.

Fundamentals

On the fundamentals bitcoin has had a rough go. It isn’t an actively circulated currency, transactions are difficult, and with new regulation imposed in many jurisdictions it’s function as a currency is actually being limited.

Bitcoin isn’t a good currency for small payments, and while the long wait times for transactions aren’t as much of a negative signal for large transactions (thousands of dollars) the fluctuation in price makes it difficult to transact unless the person buying wants to hold rather then sell bitcoin immediately after a transaction.

However, where it has found fundamental success is a way to move money “off the books” especially in economics where the financial systems aren’t stable, or for black market transactions.

Price

It’s clear by the lack of transactions in the general landscape that Bitcoin as a true currency replacement hasn’t taken off, but in gray areas it has found a foot hold. When you consider how many billions of dollars are transacted on the black market, justifying a market cap in the several hundred billion isn’t much of a stretch.

There is also the cost of mining. Part of the reason that gold became a central currency was that it was divisible, it was concrete, it was exchangeable, and it was also difficult to replicate. Meaning that the supply was constrained which made it a good measure.

Bitcoin has all of those functions as well and the cost of mining can be taken as another measure to directly determine a dollar for dollar exchange. As an example if it took $100B to mine bitcoin, can we say that the value of bitcoin is then $100B.

If so, knowing how much bitcoin has been mined already, how much money has been invested in these operations, we can determine how much more will need to be invested in order to mine the last bitcoin possible. This again is in the neighborhood of several hundred billion dollars, most likely around $200B.

Lastly, let’s consider another fundamental view point of the price and value of bitcoin. If bitcoin succeeds as a financial currency then it’s market cap will be driven by the number and value of transactions. What that simply means is that a currency needs to be worth the assets that are being traded.

Let’s say I have a house that is worth $1MM dollars, if I want to sell it for bitcoin, but the entire market cap of bitcoin is less than $1MM I can’t sell it even if I wanted to because there isn’t enough liquidity in the market to support that transaction. So in essence the more Bitcoin becomes a currency, the more people exchange value through it, the more the market cap should increase in order to facilitate the transactions.

This is where the value of bitcoin can continue to increase after all of the bitcoins are mined. Remember that the miners do not need to “mine” bitcoins forever, as they are also the ones processing the transactions and taking a fee for the service. So miners will continue to produce value for those operating them even after the last bitcoin is mined. Here you need to remove the fake transactions, where people are basically just exchanging bitcoins between each other, because that isn’t a fundamental function of currency. Unfortunately this number is hard to arrive at. However, the black market is probably the biggest benefactor here and where the majority of this value of bitcoin is driven.

Speculative Market?

The real question is are we in a speculative market. If we are then whatever the intrinsic value of an investment is, gets driven up by speculation. A scarce supply and many willing buyers along with large profits in a short window with no real work, all create a highly speculative environment. Bitcoin, is ripe for speculation because it is completely electronic, which means it can be exchanged near instantly, it is divisible so people can speculate with almost any amount of capital, thus making it a very egalitarian speculative instrument.

As a counter point, consider speculation in the housing market. Houses aren’t divisible, you can’t sell just one room. The time to close a transaction even with all cash, is a couple of weeks. The exchange is limited as is the pool of buyers because of the physicalness of the asset. And the entry point for speculation requires a large amount of capital because you can’t buy a house for $10, or $100.