| json_metadata | "{"app":"Musing","appTags":["world"],"appCategory":"world","appTitle":"Where will the next global economic crisis come from?","appBody":"<p><br></p>\n<p><img src=\"http://www.rp-online.de/polopoly_fs/1.5184144.1434981645!httpImage/622480671.jpg_gen/derivatives/d940x528/622480671.jpg\" /></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>If someone responds well (that is, right) will be a candidate for the next Nobel Prize in Ecnomy. Or maybe not, because if you hit before that crisis arrives, it's likely that you're not an economist. You already know that economists are the experts who best predict crises ... retrospectively.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Seers apart, local crises are continually everywhere; If you mean another global crisis that almost nobody is saved from, it does not seem to me that their causes are going to be very different from the last one. Since, if you look closely, none of them has really been corrected. Just one example: the real capitalization of banks remains a ridiculous fraction of the capital that moves. That is, they continue to produce (lend) money that they do not have.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>All economies are doped with credit, at this time also quite cheap as a result of the policies of all central banks in the last decade. Today, the total volume of debt is well above that of 10 years ago. That is a risk whose consequences are going to be manifested with harshness as interest rates increase, inevitable event of course.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Look at the example of Spain: with a current debt of almost 100% of GDP, it has been paying some 30,000 million euros a year in interest for several years. You can not lower that bill or joke. And now we are going to reduce the rate of reduction of that debt, just when the rates have already started to rise. The consequence is that in the coming years we will have to dedicate more volume of our annual generated wealth to pay interest (and less to social policies, infrastructures, productive investments, research ...). An explosive recipe for social conflict.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Since the first global crisis (that of tulip bulbs in seventeenth century Holland) has not stopped having scares that have shaken empires or governments.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Although the left says that Marxism is the revolutionary doctrine that will change the world, that is not true, capitalism is the most revolutionary current for 300 years. He has managed to destroy the bourgeoisie - a reduction of the middle classes - between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>We have the example in the so-called \"globalization\", an industry is \"relocated\", in France or Spain, to be located in Poland, Mexico or India, all because of a cost problem. In the last recession, Western Europe and the USA area have been harmed by the collapse of the banking system based on the \"fractional reserve\" (it eliminates the gold standard in central banks and is based on trust between them).</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>That has not happened in the Asia-Pacific, where countries like China, Australia or New Zealand, not to mention Singapore and South Korea, have achieved unthinkable growth rates.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>To finish, we are in continuous movement, and everything is cyclical, phenomena such as cryptocurrencies or the cold war through software manage to end economies in which their countries are weak, because their armies are weak and their banks or companies are state with strong protectionism rates that prevent them from making quick decisions.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>But to answer your question In summary:</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>\"It is very likely that, in Europe, because of a fictitious Euro, the biggest bankruptcy of the 21st Century can occur. Keep in mind that a Euro in Berlin compared to a Euro in the Canary Islands (Spain) can not have the same value. Per capita income in Germany is almost € 40,000, while in Spain barely exceeds € 28,000 When in countries like Spain, and has been shown, since the entry of the single European currency prices, two years, increased almost 40%. Sixty € uros of the year 2001, were 10,000 Pesetas, and with this the basket of the purchase of half a month in a house could be made. In the year 2005, that was unthinkable and would hardly give for a week. Today only reaches half a week. Data of a family of 2 adults and a child under 15 years of age.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Not to mention that in Germany the industry creates 45% of direct employment and in Spain barely reaches 15%.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>As we say in Spain: \"... of those powders, these muds ...\" We sold our soul to the Devil to be \"Europeans\" and you can see ... What a Sevillian can have in common with a Lapp. But that's what there is.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>The triumphs of the Visegrad group matches are the best thermometer of what is coming. We had the warnings from Greece and now Italy. The public debts of the countries of southern Europe will never be paid, and Germany will not be able to support it. They can not make a debt-based development that we never intend to liquidate.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Tulip bulbs, now called \"public debt\" bought by the European Central Bank. But what are accounting notes, only. There's no cash money, it's all fictitious.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Forgive the extension, but the problem is very serious and nobody wants to see it.</p>","appDepth":2,"appParentPermlink":"fk8v7zh95","appParentAuthor":"mktg","musingAppId":"aU2p3C3a8N","musingAppVersion":"1.1","musingPostType":"answer"}" |
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