create account

RE: Poor Misunderstood Exponential Curve. It Gets Better by nonzerosum

View this thread on: hive.blogpeakd.comecency.com

Viewing a response to: @flyyingkiwi/poor-misunderstood-exponential-curve-it-gets-better

· @nonzerosum ·
$0.03
Exponential growth is a concept that we often have to communicate in infectious disease control. For me its the concept that makes measles so terrifying. Each disease (under various circumstances) has its own reproduction number, otherwise know as R<sup>0</sup> (pronounced R-Nought). This is the number of people on average each infected person will go on to infect. If the number is bigger that 1 the outbreak continues of it is smaller than 1 the outbreak will start to draw to the end. 

The Ebola outbreak in 2014/15 had and R<sup>0</sup> of 2, this made it similar to the grains of rice on the chess board. Measles on the other hand has an R0 of between 14-18! Measles kills around 1 out of ever couple of children it infects and causes a great deal of suffering for those it doesnt. This is why we care so much about having a measles vaccination rate of 95% if we didn’t it would spread like wild fire. 

Here’s hoping the Steemit (a good disease that I’m happy I caught) has a high R<sup>0</sup>!
👍  
properties (23)
authornonzerosum
permlinkre-flyyingkiwi-poor-misunderstood-exponential-curve-it-gets-better-20180628t131112114z
categorysteemstem
json_metadata{"tags":["steemstem"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
created2018-06-28 13:11:12
last_update2018-06-28 13:11:12
depth1
children4
last_payout2018-07-05 13:11:12
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.023 HBD
curator_payout_value0.003 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length1,004
author_reputation10,876,428,529,007
root_title"Poor Misunderstood Exponential Curve. It Gets Better"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd0
post_id62,615,170
net_rshares10,949,429,954
author_curate_reward""
vote details (1)
@flyyingkiwi ·
$0.02
I was just thinking it's lucky that the common cold is rarely fatal, since it must have a similar R0 to measles.  But then I guess there must have been super virulent strains that killed off entire populations, with that strain also going extinct due to lack of hosts!
👍  
properties (23)
authorflyyingkiwi
permlinkre-nonzerosum-re-flyyingkiwi-poor-misunderstood-exponential-curve-it-gets-better-20180628t133332558z
categorysteemstem
json_metadata{"tags":["steemstem"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
created2018-06-28 13:33:36
last_update2018-06-28 13:33:36
depth2
children3
last_payout2018-07-05 13:33:36
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.020 HBD
curator_payout_value0.004 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length268
author_reputation2,316,453,970,971
root_title"Poor Misunderstood Exponential Curve. It Gets Better"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id62,617,630
net_rshares10,753,208,709
author_curate_reward""
vote details (1)
@nonzerosum ·
$0.03
It's actually pretty low (in comparision) at only a 2-4 from what I've heard in the past. There's just nothing stopping it. Not a cold but that spanish flu (1918) was a bit of a shitter. It's best not to think about this in the context of weaponized smallpox (not that you we're, sorry for bringing it up).
👍  
properties (23)
authornonzerosum
permlinkre-flyyingkiwi-re-nonzerosum-re-flyyingkiwi-poor-misunderstood-exponential-curve-it-gets-better-20180628t134132022z
categorysteemstem
json_metadata{"tags":["steemstem"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
created2018-06-28 13:41:33
last_update2018-06-28 13:41:33
depth3
children2
last_payout2018-07-05 13:41:33
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.021 HBD
curator_payout_value0.006 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length306
author_reputation10,876,428,529,007
root_title"Poor Misunderstood Exponential Curve. It Gets Better"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd0
post_id62,618,492
net_rshares11,525,715,741
author_curate_reward""
vote details (1)
@flyyingkiwi ·
$0.02
That gives me an idea just how fast measles can spread. Weaponized diseases are definitely super scary.  I guess the main reason no one uses them is because the bugs don’t know they’re only supposed to attack people from the other country
👍  
properties (23)
authorflyyingkiwi
permlinkre-nonzerosum-re-flyyingkiwi-re-nonzerosum-re-flyyingkiwi-poor-misunderstood-exponential-curve-it-gets-better-20180629t002100629z
categorysteemstem
json_metadata{"tags":["steemstem"],"app":"steemit/0.1"}
created2018-06-29 00:21:00
last_update2018-06-29 00:21:00
depth4
children1
last_payout2018-07-06 00:21:00
cashout_time1969-12-31 23:59:59
total_payout_value0.018 HBD
curator_payout_value0.004 HBD
pending_payout_value0.000 HBD
promoted0.000 HBD
body_length238
author_reputation2,316,453,970,971
root_title"Poor Misunderstood Exponential Curve. It Gets Better"
beneficiaries[]
max_accepted_payout1,000,000.000 HBD
percent_hbd10,000
post_id62,675,997
net_rshares10,475,982,466
author_curate_reward""
vote details (1)