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RE: My trading systems, an overview by andrius1

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· @andrius1 ·
Right, so what you said makes sense in theory but it is taking me a bit of time to digest the above in terms of how it would actually look like in practice. What I have done is I've had a look at the charts and tried seeing things from the other side where this stop hunting could be applied in practice. I have come across one chart where it makes sense. Kind of..

![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZzightjopS8kXMnF4zqfuD2zE1tMRM7qv2pVfHi4Suou/image.png)

I've got a few shadows (marked in yellow) under which a lot of people in long positions would have placed their stops (roughly where the red line is). Blue bubble is then the time, based on your description, when the order to short could be placed (again, where the red line is). When the price drops to this assumed stop level (the first big red candle outside of the blue bubble) there is a momentum to the downside because stop losses are being activated. My order to short is filled and the only thing left for me to figure out is where to close the trade (Not sure I am using the correct terminology but trailing stop is probably the right thing to do here?). 

Am I thinking in the right direction?
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@tradergurl ·
Kind of.. this is how I would have maybe played that chart if I'd seen it in time. 

First off, the market is in an uptrend, so only look for buying opportunities, that's a no brainer.

So, look at the blue circle, see that first big red candle ? That's a signal that will make people think price could be reversing so they will be looking to go short. They'll wait for confirmation though (retail traders, of course) and have a sell order if the price goes below the recent lows, where you drew that red line.

So another big red candle happens and everyone is now in the trade short. So where would all the shorts have put their stop losses ? They will be either above the high of the signal candle (the second red one that made them enter the trade) or the recent high (above the first red candle). That's where you put your *buy* order !

Another location for your buy order could be just above the red line, as that would signal a trend reversal also and people might have their stop losses there instead. It's also above the 50% retracement level of that red candle which is also a popular level.

Then look what happens on the chart, the market stalls and forms a minor support level. So the people that are short are now thinking 'maybe this wasn't such a good idea' and move their stops down to just above those candles highs, just under the red line. So that's where you move your buy order to.

And look what happens, the next big green candle trips those stops and you're in the market going north. Hopefully the momentum will carry you up and on that chart it looks like it did. If you had a stop just under that minor support line then you'd have made a 1:4 trade or similar.

The beauty is, it might not even have happened. By putting stop buy orders on, they would only be triggered if the trade went in your direction. If the price had continued to drop then it doesn't matter, you didn't get the trade but you didn't lose anything either, consider that a win also !

Of course, it's *very* easy to look backwards and say exactly how it would have worked out, it's a lot harder when it's happening on the right hand side of the chart. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't, you just have to try it.

Always *always* let the market take you into a position, don't just guess and buy at market.
👍  
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vote details (1)
@andrius1 ·
@tradegurl, more than a day later I realized I should have said thanks after you responded. That was very very detailed so thank you very much. 

I found myself reading and re-reading what you said above and looking back at the trades that I have made. On some of the trades I was surprisingly close with my thinking compared to what you described. I think "Live trading 5: EOS" is a good example in case you want to have a look. Ignore the fact it was a losing one, I just was not smart enough to move my stop as the price increased...

Having though about this further I realized that others who I am learning from are using similar principles (stop-hunting - they just don't call it that) so that's encouraging.

Anyways, I'll be looking forward to your further posts and comments :)
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@tradergurl · (edited)
I'll check out the post you mentioned and comment if I can think of anything useful to add.

The facts are like this - over 90% of traders fail, and lose all their money. To be in the 10% that do make money, you need to be thinking and doing the opposite to those in the 90%. That's pretty much the secret to it all :-)

Interesting fact for example, take a moving average cross system, something simple like the 9 SMA crossing above the 20SMA as a buy signal. Very common type of system that's recommended to newbie traders. Try backtesting it, it never ever works out profitable. 

So what do you think happens if you always sell when you get a buy signal ? ;-)
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