Using Correlation Coefficients BTC and Hive by adamada

View this thread on: hive.blog | peakd.com | ecency.com

hive-188409 · @adamada · 2024-04-06T14:53:12+00:00

$7.38

Using Correlation Coefficients BTC and Hive

The correlation coefficient indicator has been one of my favorite indicators to apply on the chart. Not because I found practical utility with it during trades but because it's nice to know how it can help support or counter my bias on the market trend in the long term.

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advise. Do your own research. Like the previous [post about on chain data](https://peakd.com/hive-188409/@adamada/looking-at-hive-s-chain) the thoughts shared here are explaining my bias on the current market trend for Hive and I could be wrong.

About the Indicator
> Correlation coefficient is a statistical measure of the strength of a linear relationship between two variables. Its values can range from -1 to 1. A correlation coefficient of -1 describes a perfect negative, or inverse, correlation, with values in one series rising as those in the other decline, and vice versa. A coefficient of 1 shows a perfect positive correlation, or a direct relationship. A correlation coefficient of 0 means there is no linear relationship. - [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correlationcoefficient.asp)

I highly suggest you read about [Correlation Coefficient](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correlationcoefficient.asp) in depth as this post doesn't cover everything about the indicator.

***
My notes:

If there is a positive correlation between BTC and HIVE, when BTC goes up, Hive price follows. But it does not automatically mean BTC caused Hive price to go up.

If there is a negative correlation between BTC and HIVE, when BTC goes up, Hive goes down. But is does not automatically mean BTC movement caused the price of Hive to go down.

If there is no correlation (oscillating near zero levels or flat), both currencies will not display a consistent pattern. Correlation coefficient indicator implies either of the two variables are dependent of each other.

Correlation coefficients is used for hedging against volatility risks in [Factor Investing](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factor-investing.asp). This is one of the many tools used to manage a portfolio. Please note that that having no, positive or negative correlation results does not automatically mean causation.

What I'm saying is, just because BTC will show a positive correlation with Hive, does not necessarily mean Hive rally to the upside is caused by BTC movement to the upside or vice versa. Random events on the market can happen where more traders are interested in trading Hive than BTC in an altcoin bullish environment.

***

<center>![powerupanddown.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/adamada/23xLPwTzmaRrPnCPzRzoYesD5cYxtrTvKLhV7mEzxb2V622PoDv765ci8iPEsRee7Wbrz.png)</center>

More Hive is being powered down on a weekly basis according [HiveHub.dev](https://hivehub.dev/stats?metric=hive_power&timeframe=weekly) which is a bearish sign. We need more Hive being powered up to reduce supply from circulation.

BTC is the stronger currency. This is obvious by the fact that people are dumping their Hive in exchange for it as seen below the HIVE/BTC pair taken from CoinGecko on a weekly chart:

<center>![HIVEBTC_2024-04-06_21-19-01.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/adamada/23t756ZdzED9vJmVf7PkgKZa7MqmoT48DXv2jhLFWfJ3FFtoXHGXaodocndPq5MFkM7DP.png)</center>

You'll see an indicator with a blue line [Hive/USDT] which I use to review the correlation coefficient showing a negative correlation. This means the stronger the negative correlation, the opposite directions these tokens move are likely to happen.

<center>![swapbtc.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/adamada/23swg9uWSfP4auf9ELPnz32k3b2gg82NA8eqN8kUr24mt6JLfP3cKZywwW4gb33Kt1fAJ.png)</center>

This is further supported by Hive Engine activity favoring the [SWAP.BTC over SWAP.Hive](https://hive-engine.com/trade/SWAP.BTC) over the course of 3 months.

But wait, there's more:

<center>![HIVEUSDT_2024-04-06_21-20-26.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/adamada/23swgE7ADD39QCoEZk1ZN7NBcq2fa1Tsd8sPuFjeJqY3jvmki4X5Bp7ktjcCuCdyUBesX.png)</center>

Below is a weekly chart for HIVE/USDT pair and underneath in blue line is a correlation coefficient indicator with [BTC/USDT] pair. You can see there is a positive correlation between HIVE and BTC which gives more support to the idea that when BTC rises, Hive also rises BUT it doesn't always always mean one event caused the other effect. Between these two currencies, BTC remains the dominant token and traders would opt to HODL BTC more than Hive. Now I know this sounds like it's damn obvious how BTC is the dominant token, but I like to have some foundation first before reaching that conclusion.

My thought process is, if I have a bias, I need to consider the observable things that are supportive and against that bias, weigh them in before coming to a conclusion. So currently my overall bias has been bearish for Hive and if it does make a rally towards the upside, it will entirely be dependent on how BTC performs.

While back testing on the short term, correlation coefficient is unreliable the smaller the time frame. I get a consistent picture around 4H and up time frames. It's really not meant for quick trades. Trading Hive just by looking at the Hive chart without checking what BTC is up to is like being tone deaf to the market.

Thanks for your time.

👍 brofi, ripperone, steemcleaners, mahdiyari, solominer, enjar, minnowbooster, vaultec, nfttunz, mengao, pokerarema, steemflagrewards, howo, lemouth, enforcer48, postpromoter, nathen007, maxwellmarcusart, steemstem, reward.app, sbi6, mcsvi, rocky1, crypticat, ybanezkim26, memehub, roleerob, jasperdick, dcityrewards, stemsocial, smartvote, walterjay, dhimmel, brofund, curie, aboutcoolscience, ibt-survival, hijosdelhombre, baltai, mathowl, roelandp, sgt-dan, riandeuk, tiffanyhouston, techslut, robmolecule, pboulet, stayoutoftherz, eturnerx-dbuzz, voter001, votehero, tomiscurious, jlufer, exyle, lammbock, brofund-witness, speko, tomastonyperez, steemseph, perceval, therising, foreveraverage, aleestra, upme, and 227 others

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@juanvegetarian · 2024-04-08T15:51:27+00:00

$0.03

I don't really use this indicator, but off the top of my head, I think we can assume the "direct" relationship between BTC and Hive is the Hive-BTC pair. Looking at the latest 24 hour trading volume for Hive overall on coingecko, it is around 1.5% of market cap. The BTC-Hive pair on Binance daily trading volume is $300k so it wouldn't make much of an impact in the price relationship between the two. However,there are times when the daily trading volume for BTC-Hive goes up to around $1M, which is now around 0.5% of the Hive market cap. Still too small, but when combined with other factors and trading pairs might signify a causation  between the correlation of the two price action movements. Of course, the BTC market cap has gone back up to 1.4T so it's way bigger than Hive's, thus making the correlation seem too one sided, as you have stated, one is clearly the more dominant crypto. I understand why you are biased to look at Hive from this point of view as bearish, but if I'm not mistaken this is based only on correlation coefficient measure. I haven't researched this well enough to make an informed opinion so these are just best guess hypothesis or just call it nonsense, but a good starting point to push me to look into it more deeply. 😎

👍 adamada

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@adamada · 2024-04-09T12:11:33+00:00

I don't use correlation coefficient if I'm just going to be trading on a hour to daily timeframe, it's unreliable as an indicator. It's just fun to see some patterns emerging when paired with on chain data and comparing it to other tokens. If Hive ever does rally to the good times, it will largely depend on how the Koreans trading at UpBit decide so since price is where the volume is.

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@rafzat · 2024-04-06T18:11:00+00:00

$0.03

Well, we’re having more power down of Hive but I feel people have different reasons of powering down. At the same time, one thing that can help Hive is to have more investors who will stack more
I hope we get there
We’re getting there already

👍 adamada

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adamada	0 B		59,209,508,766	42%

@adamada · 2024-04-07T22:25:00+00:00

I don't really dwell on wishful thinking but that would be nice.

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@scion02b · 2024-04-08T18:25:27+00:00

$0.04

My work deals a lot with Factor Models, happy to see these kind of discussions :) 

"Correlation does not imply causation".  What I like about correlation is that it is very intuitive and easy to explain as it talks about direction.  I wouldn't consider it as an indicator but more of a metric.  If used, it should be based on a much signifant number of datapoints.  Not sure if I interpret correctly that the CC indicator in your chart is only using 20 datapoints?  That would introduce a lot of unnecessary volatility in the indicator.

Beta correlation (sensitivity to market) is a good measure to show how much the variable would move compared to the market.  It would be interesting to see what is the beta of Hive with BTC.  I assume it's low, as we don't see much movement.

👍 adamada

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@adamada · 2024-04-09T12:19:15+00:00

> 20 datapoints? That would introduce a lot of unnecessary volatility in the indicator.

Yeah, 20 data points looked volatile and using it on a lower timeframe within the day even more. I'm just fiddling with the idea and had intuitively guessed I should be using a larger number, 20 was the default setting and I just went with it. 

> Beta correlation (sensitivity to market) is a good measure to show how much the variable would move compared to the market. It would be interesting to see what is the beta of Hive with BTC. I assume it's low, as we don't see much movement.

I'm interested in this idea too and would be great if other creators discussed that here. There's lack of technical posts to go around and it's a hit or miss when matters become technical, so technical that nobody outside the profession can get it or so brief that it leaves out a lot of interesting details.

> My work deals a lot with Factor Models

Since this was brought up, I'd like to see more posts from you that covers the topic because it's so niche and there's not much info around that relates to Hive in general.

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@stemsocial · 2024-04-07T23:46:45+00:00

re-adamada-using-correlation-coefficients-btc-and-20240407t234644939z

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properties (22)