I guess most users are going to see a drop in steem rewards of 30 to 60 % from the simulations I've done and that cannot account for downvotes. However because of tribes and tokens, this can be offset provided some of the bigger ones continue to thrive.

I agree things won't get good until after the new years and thats if SMTs are delivered on svhedule. These could increase confodemce in tribes even more.

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This sounds.... well, not good. It sounds not at all good.
https://media.giphy.com/media/Hqtw4vzrni8cU/giphy.gif

Things have become stagnant so I am all for change, any change to buck this place up. There is always Hf22 if things go pear shaped

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Thanks for the heads up @paulag.  I had my suspicions all along.  

What can be accomplished in the long-term after HF21?  

When you run the numbers to factor in human behavior and the disgruntled off-chain chatter in the social media platform blogging space, HF21 is a self-inflicted fatal error! 

I suspect there is another agenda that doesn't serve all the users of the STEEM blockchain... I that's the case, too bad!

The prospects of lower Steem rewards that are harder than ever to earn is the worst combination in this space right now.  I am glad I made the moves that I did when I did because I smelt a real funky fish fry about to take place.  @exyle has made a number of posts about the HF21.  Now, you have all but, confirmed my best guesstimates of what is going to happen.

Thanks for everything @paulag, continue to be the best at what you do ~ Steem On!

Somebody got spooked by the number of words in this blog posting ~ 666 words!  Is this an omen @paulag?

Congratulations @paulag!
Your post was mentioned in the [Steem Hit Parade](/hit-parade/@arcange/daily-hit-parade-20190805) in the following category:

* Comments - Ranked 1 with 80 comments

During HF20, I could see the promise of free account creation for what it was, an empty promise. I got my second standby account for the 3 steem prior to HF20, and that 3 steem went to the account. I urged all my friends that if they thought they might want/need a second account in the future they should get their account prior to the HF. 

On this HF, (HF21), I do not see what I can do or should do to prepare for it. With the advent of all the new tribes I really wish I would have purchased/made even more accounts before HF20. 

So any one with ideas on what I should do to prepare for or change habit wise before HF21 they would certainly be appreciated.

> However it looks to me like if we don’t all change our voting and flagging behaviour, like big big time, the rich are about to get richer and the higher SP holders stand to gain.  I think we will see a massive clear out of steem users.  Users that were previously able to earn up to a dollar per post. The same users, holding low SP won’t see much benefit from increased curation rewards either because their votes is worth nothing anyway.

this is something i was talking from the first time they mentioned it. One thing that could maybe push it a bit to the better side is heavy downvoting of big stakes that are selfupvoting shitposts and bitbots. 
now we can just wait and see.

i screamed loudly when the HF20 was proposed about how it would affect little accounts. AND ultimately, Steemit.

HF21 is going to be another hard hit

At some point, investors will avoid Steem because too many users lost, and not enough new members. At some point the reputation of Steem will scare investors away

It's a change in favour of the big guys. That's for sure.

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Where the hell steemit road map direct to😯 is this going to be another Lion's club?

Look at it from _their_ point of view. After this hard fork, the strong and powerful will accumulate more power to ensure future hard forks work for their benefit first.

Okay, now you can slap me.

Dear @paulag

Thank you for sharing your view on that particular issue with us. HF21 is surely bringing even more emotions that HF20 did. At least that's my impression so far.

> Next, is the split between authors and curators.  This will change from 75/50 to 50/50, on a reduced rewards pool.

I'm wondering what do you think about this split? I've been monitoring PAL and LEO tokens (since both introduced 50/50 already) and selling pressure seem to be very high. Which really worries me.

> Then we have a change in the payments to authors away from a linear curve.

This seem to be the most important change for those who like to upvote valuable comments. Correct me if I'm wrong but right now it will be way more "expensive" to give someone small 0.03$ upvote than it has been in the past, right?

I'm really worried that culture of upvoting comments will die down.

Just like you said: it will be an interesting time. It's hard not to agree with your words: "I think we will see a massive clear out of steem users.". I'm really worried about this HF21 and its future consequences.

Yours
Piotr