Terra UST spectacular crash: UST debt vs HBD debt. Could the same happen to HIVE and Hive Dollar? by vikisecrets

View this thread on: hive.blog | peakd.com | ecency.com

hive-167922 · @vikisecrets · May 12 '22 (edited)

$15.86

Terra UST spectacular crash: UST debt vs HBD debt. Could the same happen to HIVE and Hive Dollar?

UST spektakulärer Crash: UST-Schulden vs. HBD-Schulden. Kann das Gleiche HIVE und Hive Dollar passieren?

Terra LUNA ist sagenhaft gecrasht und zeigt die Gefahren von Algo-Stablecoins auf.

Algo-Stablecoins funktionieren sehr gut in einem Bullenmarkt, versagen aber in einem Bärenmarkt. By Design.

Generell unterscheidet man Stablecoins zwischen Voll-Reserve, Teil-Reserve und Algo-Stablecoins, die einen Algorithmus und einen zweiten Token wie HIVE oder Terra LUNA verwenden, um den Stablecoin zu stabilisieren.

Gestern wurde auch das Gerücht verbreitet, dass der gehypte Stablecoin UST sogar für den Bitcoin-Crash verantwortlich sei. Die Terra Luna Foundation hätte Reserven in Bitcoin panikartig veräußert und so den Kryptomarkt weiter gecrasht.

Stablecoins sind immer sehr problematisch, zu zentralisiert, haben nur eine Teilreserve oder gar keine Reserve, die man schwer kontrollieren kann, und versprechen zu hohe Zinsen. 20% auf einen Stablecoin sind utopisch. Eher ein Ponzi.

Wie gut sich ein Algo-Stablecoin in einem Bärenmarkt behaupten kann, hängt in erster Linie vom Schuldenstand ab (Verhältnis zwischen dem Stablecoin und dem aktuellen Wert der dahinterliegenden Währung wie HIVE oder LUNA).

Steigt die Überschuldung zu stark an, zum Beispiel durch einen Kurseinbruch oder durch zu hohe Zinsen auf den Stablecoin, kann es zu einer Todesspirale kommen. Das Vertrauen schwindet und sowohl der Stablecoin als auch der dahinterliegende Token crashen. Da hilft auch kein Algorithmus mehr.

Um die Überschuldung zu verhindern, hat Hive eine Schuldenobergrenze eingeführt (derzeit 10%, Haircut-Rule), ab der die Konvertierung in HIVE gedrosselt wird.

Allerdings gibt es auf Hive Bestrebungen diese Obergrenze auf 30% zu erhöhen, bestimmte Funds hinauszurechnen, die Zinsen zu erhöhen, etc, um immer mehr Schulden machen zu können.

Der aktuelle Schuldenstand beträgt inkl. Hive Fund derzeit 16.2% (ohne Hive Fund 7.8%).

Bei LUNA ist die Todesspirale eingetreten und die Verschuldung ist von circa 62% auf 2330% gestiegen, LUNA komplett gecrasht. Death Spiral.

Daher erwarte ich, dass UST noch weiter massiv an Wert verlieren wird. Da hilft auch eine BTC-Teilreserve nicht mehr viel.

Sollte sich der Downtrend fortsetzen könnte es auch für Hive Dollar kritisch werden und der Peg nicht mehr lange halten. Das kann schneller gehen, als man denkt. Erste Anzeichen dafür kann man bereits erkennen.

Schulden verstärken die Zyklen sowohl nach unten als auch nach oben. Eigentlich so wie bei Fiat auch.

Was denkt ihr? Was unterscheidet HBD von UST? Wird Hive Dollar und die 20% Zinsen auch Hive crashen?

ps. Ich wäre sogar für eine konservativere Schuldenobergrenze von 2-3% (derzeit 10%), dann könnte ein Algo-Stablecoin vermutlich auch einen Krypto-Bärenmarkt überleben. Bin kein Fan von Schulden.

## UST vs. HBD debt

|Stablecoin|Total Supply|Collateral|MarketCap|Debt Ratio (before crash)|Debt Ratio (after crash)
|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|UST|12,509,478,053|LUNA|$536,755,474|62.5%|2330%|
|HBD|25,155,817|HIVE|$154,889,848|7.8%|16.2%|

Sources: @coingecko, hiveblocks.com

## TerraUSD (UST) vs. Hive Dollar (HBD)

![terra-ust-chart-220512-1.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/vikisecrets/AJebL8CvX6xUoTsByByGywhYeMpG7GaH4CXUqFSrtFznQ5SkNg7jeHyjcNF1r4H.jpg)

![terra-luna-chart-220512-1.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/vikisecrets/AJebMxrdWS2mjoaVSb6Tepr2DfhesiK3SrE6q6s7LmMC6nXXE8nxKPpmiXR9xHM.jpg)

![hive-hbd-chart-220512-1.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/vikisecrets/AJg2sRzTxyBg4E7TRk3B7RTt3NF21WevXiAobCdcnEvCqjcGUiNUaeBLpNBdEk8.jpg)

![hive-chart-220512-1.jpg](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/vikisecrets/AJdA3pPxo4EN9T9iTfGcGH5xH9gN1faGfUJHhKJyNkbMtQqn38szU1v94LhuBef.jpg)

Source: https://coingecko.com/

## Did Terra LUNA UST crash Bitcoin?

https://twitter.com/stablekwon/status/1524331171189956609

https://twitter.com/ahcastor/status/1524138386306519040

## English

Terra LUNA crashed fabulously and shows the dangers of algo stablecoins.

Algo stablecoins work very well in a bull market but fail in a bear market. By Design.

Generally, stablecoins are distinguished between full-reserve, partial-reserve, and algo stablecoins, which use an algorithm and a second token like HIVE or Terra LUNA as a collateral to stabilize the stablecoin.

Yesterday, it was also rumored that the hyped stablecoin UST was even responsible for the Bitcoin crash. The Terra Luna Foundation had panic sold reserves in Bitcoin, further crashing the crypto market.

Stablecoins are always very problematic, too centralized, have only a partial reserve system or no reserve at all, are difficult to verify, and promise insanely high interest rates. 20% on a stablecoin is utopian. That's more like a Ponzi.

How well an algo stablecoin can do in a bear market depends primarily on the debt level (ratio between the stablecoin and the current value of the currency behind it, such as HIVE or LUNA).

If the debt overload increases too much, for example due to a price collapse or too high interest rates on the stablecoin, a death spiral can occur. Confidence fades and both the stablecoin and the token behind it crash. No algorithm can fix that anymore.

In order to prevent over-indebtedness, Hive has introduced a debt limit (currently 10%, called haircut rule), above which conversion to HIVE is throttled.

However, there are efforts on Hive to increase this cap to 30%, to exclude certain funds, to increase interest rates, etc., in order to be able to take on more and more debt.

The current debt level including Hive Fund is currently 16.2% (without Hive Fund 7.8%).

At the Terra LUNA side the death spiral has occurred and the debt has increased from about 62% to a whopping 2330%, as a consequence LUNA completely crashed. Death Spiral.

So I expect UST to lose even more ground. A BTC partial reserve will not help much anymore in that situation.

If the downtrend continues, it could also become critical for Hive Dollar and the peg could not last much longer. This can happen faster than you think. The first signs of this can already be seen.

Debt amplifies cycles both down and upwards. Actually, the same as with fiat.

What do you guys think? How is HBD different from UST? Will Hive Dollar and the 20% interest also crash Hive?

ps. I would even be in favor of a more conservative debt ceiling / debt limit of 2-3% (currently 10%), then an algo stablecoin could probably survive a crypto bear market as well. I'm not a fan of debt as you can see.

## Sources
[1] @dalz How Is HBD Different Then UST? https://peakd.com/hbd/@dalz.shorts/how-is-hbd-different-then-ust
[2] @dalz Historical HBD Price | Blockchain and Market Prices https://peakd.com/hbd/@dalz.shorts/historical-hbd-price-or-blockchain-and-market-prices
[3] @dalz What Is The Inflation From HBD Interest? How High Can It Go And Is It Sustainable?
[4] @dalz Hive Inflation And Supply For April 2022 https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@dalz/hive-inflation-and-supply-for-april-2022
[5] @mein-senf-dazu Mein Senf zu Kursmanipulation TerraUSD https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@mein-senf-dazu/mein-senf-zu-kursmanipulation-terrausd

*Live your Secrets and Hive Prosper* 🍯

xx Viki @vikisecrets

👍 stayoutoftherz, ripperone, jedigeiss, vikisecrets, empoderat, schamangerbert, satren, florian-glechner, dalz, zuerich, condeas, kryptodenno, trasto, pollux.one, prinzvalium, fabio, germansailor, xels, fw206, equipodelta, investegg, leaky20, hive-data, thales7, pishio, eisenbart, carolineschell, hatoto, misterc, reconnectnature, mima2606, jamesbattler, leroy.linientreu, louisthomas, kiel91, lichtblick, wirago, manniman, thomasthewolf, heroldius, wulff-media, acesontop, mein-senf-dazu, dreimaldad, moeenali, sciencevienna, bitandi, herz-ass, fengchao, marianaemilia, orionvk, schmidi, sbi5, caro-art, ukulima, borsengelaber, t-nil, anneadam, bnk, doze, melvin7, tresor, jfang003, ozelot47, and 117 others

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@barski · May 12 '22

$0.20

the hive has already gone through similar collapses and survived, everything will be fine)

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@barski/re-vikisecrets-77nici)

👍 vikisecrets, felix.herrmann, manniman

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@manniman · May 12 '22

No, Luna is dead ☠️ most probably

👍 barski, beemd

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@barski · May 12 '22

I wouldn't be so sure about that... Do you know how much the SPT coin was worth before the STEEM crash? 100,000 coins cost about $1. There are other coins that were played with a funeral march, but they came to life.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@barski/re-manniman-2p77cj)

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9 replies

@felix.herrmann · May 12 '22

$0.02

lets talk next week

👍 manniman

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1 reply

@borsengelaber · May 12 '22

$0.12

Sehr guter Beitrag, gerade weil ich selber mich wenig mit Stable Coins befasse. Bin auch nicht Investiert. Ist einfach nicht mein Ding. Entweder „richtige“ Coins oder Cash in Fiat. Da bin ich etwas old school.

👍 vikisecrets, las3rbone

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@chinito · May 12 '22

$0.11

HBD is backed by super cool hivers! so it would never crash.. :P

👍 vikisecrets

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@dalz · May 12 '22

$0.56

Thanks for all the refferences :)
About the Hive debt it is curently around 3.5%, not 16%, becouse the HBD in the DHF (16M) fund is not counted as debt.
Live info here
https://hive.ausbit.dev/hbd

👍 vikisecrets, mochita

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@vikisecrets · May 12 '22

$0.15

I think honestly, you have to include the HBD in the DHF too, because the DHF pays Hive Proposals and could also be spent. Without the DHF, I calculated a debt rate of 7.8%. (Excluding 15 million HBD in the Hive Fund, dividing by the current Hive MarketCap).

👍 dalz

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dalz	0 B		239,570,018,153	37%

@dalz · May 12 '22

$0.11

The maximum that the DHF can pay per day is 1% of holdings, that is around 160k per day .... but the actual payouts are much less than that

About the curent debt, the blockchain is using the feed price for HIVE to calculate the debt, 3.5 days average, that is higher that the curent market one. If in a three days the price is around these levels, the yes the debt will increase

👍 vikisecrets

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@emeka4 · May 12 '22

$0.11

That's definitely what to experience in crypto the rise and fall of prices but just hope a better pump in price will occur soon

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@emeka4/re-vikisecrets-yij3w)

👍 vikisecrets

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@hashir123 · May 12 '22

LUNA crash will be remembered a long long time in crypto market

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@herz-ass · May 12 '22

$0.11

Wahrscheinlich hat dieser LUNA Crash den BTC mit in die Tiefe gezogen.
Allerdings glaube ich, dass mit diesem Schlag nach unten der BTC den Boden erreicht hat.
Jetzt sind Kaufkurse!!
Stablecoins haben noch nie richtig funktioniert. HBD ist ja ganz nett, aber eigentlich nur zum temporären Parken von Liquidität geeignet. Ich halte ungefähr 100 HBD, aber nur aus experimentellen Gründen.
Der dauerhafte Wertspeicher ist und bleibt BTC.

!hivebits

👍 vikisecrets

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@hivebits · May 12 '22

Success! You mined .9 <a href="https://peakd.com/@hivebits/introducing-hivebits">HBIT</a> & the user you replied to received .1 HBIT on your behalf. <a href="https://hive.blog/hbit/@hivebits.mine/mine-hbit">mine</a> | <a href="https://tribaldex.com/wallet/" style="text-decoration:none">wallet</a> | <a href="https://hive-engine.com/trade/HBIT/" style="text-decoration:none">market</a> | <a
    href="https://crrdlx.websavvy.work/" style="text-decoration:none">tools</a> | <a 
    href="https://discord.gg/K5GvNhcPqR" style="text-decoration:none">discord</a> | <a href="https://peakd.com/c/hive-159259">community | <a href="https://ichthys.netlify.app" style="text-decoration:none"><>< daily</a>

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@jfang003 · May 12 '22

$0.11

While a conservation debt limit might make it survive more, it would limit it's adoption and I think most people here want it to be a stablecoin they can use. So I don't think the debt limit will be lowered and I heard some people mention that they want to increase it. I think the only other safety mechanism they can add is to add a 5% tax on the HBD to Hive conversions. If they do so, at least a part of the Hive will be removed from impacting the price.

Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@jfang003/re-vikisecrets-4gdves)

👍 vikisecrets, charles37

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@las3rbone · May 12 '22

$0.11

Danke für die Ausführung!
!LUV
!hivebits

👍 vikisecrets

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@hivebits · May 12 '22

Success! You mined .9 <a href="https://peakd.com/@hivebits/introducing-hivebits">HBIT</a> & the user you replied to received .1 HBIT on your behalf. <a href="https://hive.blog/hbit/@hivebits.mine/mine-hbit">mine</a> | <a href="https://tribaldex.com/wallet/" style="text-decoration:none">wallet</a> | <a href="https://hive-engine.com/trade/HBIT/" style="text-decoration:none">market</a> | <a
    href="https://crrdlx.websavvy.work/" style="text-decoration:none">tools</a> | <a 
    href="https://discord.gg/K5GvNhcPqR" style="text-decoration:none">discord</a> | <a href="https://peakd.com/c/hive-159259">community | <a href="https://ichthys.netlify.app" style="text-decoration:none"><>< daily</a>

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@luvshares · May 12 '22

@las3rbone<sub>(1/1)</sub> gave you LUV. <a href="https://peakd.com/@luvshares/about" style="text-decoration:none"><img src="https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/crrdlx/AKU7oyCXxGwYyudB42kJ7JtoZ63bdeHvm4icoT9xdGNxA4i4BwudGyPvTQrEwPd.gif"></a> <a
    href="https://crrdlx.websavvy.work/" style="text-decoration:none">H-E tools</a> | <a 
    href="https://discord.gg/K5GvNhcPqR" style="text-decoration:none">discord</a> | <a href="https://peakd.com/c/hive-159259">community | <a href="https://ichthys.netlify.app" style="text-decoration:none"><>< daily</a>

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@manniman · May 12 '22

$0.11

USDT hatte Reserven in BTC, macht das den Stable Coin nicht zum Teil-Reserve Algostablecoin?

USDT hat hat viele verrückte Fehler gemacht, aber wurde Epsteind‘ am Ende.


![4BA7A1DD-6082-427C-AC90-BC2A0610B1B7.png](https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/manniman/23xykBLiu9PJqFToR1ATxS4Bip6nMDd4wy4rm9jsJUBBRsY39d5694NVxHJEAD52B4bq3.png)

👍 vikisecrets, daniela92

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daniela92	0 B		0	0.1%

@vikisecrets · May 12 '22

$0.24

Ja guter Punkt, eine Mischung aus Algo und Teil-Reserve-System. Vermutlich haben die BTC-Reserven geholfen, den Coin etwas zu stabilisieren, aber ausreichen werden sie nicht, da Bitcoin auch gecrasht und das Vertrauen in UST hinüber ist.

👍 manniman

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@manniman · May 12 '22

$0.11

Ja absolut, ich bin mit aber nicht sicher ob sie alle BTC Reserven bereits wieder aufn Markt geworfen haben. Wait… gerade gecheckt, jap alle abgeworfen. Krass. Verrückt.

👍 vikisecrets, daniela92

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@mein-senf-dazu · May 12 '22

$0.36

Was heißt denn Überschuldet bei HBD?

Ich glaube ich bräuchte da mal echt ein Schaubild, Besipiel Erklärung wie das ganze funktioniert.

Also wenn hinter einem Stable Coin ja ein hinterlegter Wert vorhanden ist, ok verstehe ich, wie es bei Tether sein sollte (angeblich aber nichtbist).

Aber eben nicht wie das bei HBD und Hive funktioniert.

👍 manniman, vikisecrets

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@manniman · May 12 '22

Nah HBD kann ja zu HIVE verwandelt werden, im Hive Wallet, oder aufm internen Markt benutzt werden um
HIVE zu kaufen.

Angekommen jeder würde das mit allem vorhanden HBD diese Woche machen, ich denke das ist quasi das Krisenszenario welche es zu überleben gilt. Darüber hinaus könnte auch noch Preisdruck von externen Börsen kommen.

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@vikisecrets · May 12 '22

$0.06

Einfach erklärt, HBD ist durch HIVE gedeckt. Für HBD kannst du eine gewisse Anzahl HIVE aus dem Nichts drucken (im Wert von $1) und damit HIVE inflationieren. HBD sind so ähnlich wie Schulden, je mehr HBD exisieren, desto mehr HIVE könnte man drucken.

👍 mein-senf-dazu, mochita

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@mein-senf-dazu · May 12 '22

Wozu das ganze dann?
Dann kann doch der Hive nie z.B. 10$ erreichen oder?
Wieso nicht einfach nur Hive.

👍 mochita

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@menox98 · May 12 '22

to see UST in right place with 1$ again, they should increase effort of minted rate per day of luna

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@mochita · May 12 '22

$0.11

First answer Luna to the mooooon
![img_0.33830232354528533.jpg](https://images.ecency.com/DQmS5bKwg8sFCD7TiSnVvpHyUCr2q5h2zHdJrD7UTu5xEBR/img_0.33830232354528533.jpg)

Second answer, Hive is [different](https://peakd.com/hbd/@dalz.shorts/how-is-hbd-different-then-ust)

👍 vikisecrets

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@mxm0unite · May 13 '22

$0.10

Black Swan

👍 vikisecrets

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@olympicdragon · May 12 '22

$0.11

I think Hive is strong. We have stabilizer in place, debt ratio is much lower. And as a smaller market cap, less likely to be manipulated !

👍 vikisecrets

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@orionvk · May 12 '22

$0.28

Was denkst du ab welchem Hive-Preis der HBD kollabieren würde?

👍 fw206, vikisecrets

properties (23)vote details (2)

@fw206 · May 12 '22

$0.10

Derzeit ab 21,7cent. Er würde aber nicht kollabieren, weil ja immer mindestens eine 1000% Deckung da ist. Wenn der Hive z.B. auf die Hälfte von 21,7 cent sinkt wäre der HBD noch 50 cent Wert, weil dass dann mit 1000% gedeckt ist und das halt die Mindestdeckung ist. Es könnten natürlich auch HBD in Hive umgewandelt werden, dann könnte der Hivepreis auch noch weiter sinken ohne das der HBD seine Deckung für exakt einen Dollar verliert, die fest ins System programmiert ist.

👍 geneeverett, orionvk

properties (23)vote details (2)

@orionvk · May 12 '22

$0.16

Danke für die Zahlenangabe! Ich glaube zwar nicht unbedingt, dass Hive von diesem Punkt an nochmal um 50% fällt, um bei 21,7cent anzukommen, aber vor einem Jahr standen wir bei $0,16, obwohl der Bitcoin-Preis damals höher war, als jetzt, also wer weiß. 😅

👍 fw206

properties (23)vote details (1)

@vikisecrets · May 12 '22

$0.04

Anscheinend wird der DHF / Hive Fund nicht zur Schuldengrenze gerechnet. Dann sollte es bei circa 0.30 USD pro HIVE kritisch werden.

👍 orionvk

properties (23)vote details (1)

@poshtoken · May 12 '22

https://twitter.com/vikisecretscom/status/1524727243590836225
<sub> The rewards earned on this comment will go directly to the person sharing the post on Twitter as long as they are registered with @poshtoken. Sign up at https://hiveposh.com.</sub>

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