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to | bittrex |
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1. | parent_author | "" |
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parent_permlink | japanese |
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author | odennodaikon |
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permlink | 5qbcpi |
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title | 2017年7月1日 今後の日本企業の行方 |
---|
body | "body
「2024年頃までにインドが中国を抜き国別で1位となり、日本は現在の11位(1億2700万人)から次第に順位を下げ、2100年には8500万人で29位」→2100年の世界人口は112億人、インドが首位に 日経新聞転載
国連の今後の予測が発表されたようです。
ここで、雑記帳的に人口が減少し、消費が減少し、そして企業収益が減少することが眼に見えてわかる今。今後の日本の企業の生き残り方、稼ぐ力が強い企業とは、強いビジネスモデルとはを少し考えてみたい。
まず生き残り、これからも収益が向上していくであろう企業はグローバル展開をしている会社。国内のみで経営をしている会社は、今後の人口減少の波に討ちかてずに、グローバルな大企業に呑み込まれるていくだろう。権力の一極集中化が起こると考えられる。
強い会社はより強く、弱い会社は更に弱くである。
次にIT系は、能力一つで世界展開する力、人材の力でグローバルにビジネス展開できるので、収益率も向上が期待できる。
懸念があるとすれば近い未来AIのディープラーニングによる。AIの台頭が考えられる。開発者をも食ってしまないだろうかという懸念はある。
そういう意味で、安定成長、利益が投資家にも予測しやすいゲーム開発会社などはグローバルに展開しやすい面があるので、今後も成長していく分野だろう。
国内のみでの経営主体でも伸びていく分野はある。
介護ヘルス事業は需要が今後ますます増えていくのが容易に想像できる。ただ収益基盤が国や自治体に頼っているのが現状。財政難で補助金が削減されていく中で、介護従事者の雇用改善での人材確保。付加価値(お金を多く払ってでもサービスを受けたいとおもわせる富裕層向けのサービス)をつけたサービス、こういった企業が生き残っていくか。
介護事業も大企業は更に大きくなりそうな予感。なので現状で強みのある会社を見定めて投資を開始すれば、具体的には利益率も同業他社よりもずば抜けてよく。なおかつ従業員一人当たりの給与も高い会社。こんな会社あるかな?
あるとすれば今後何十年後には大幅なリターンが期待できるのではないか。" |
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