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Cheers." |
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| 1. | | parent_author | "" |
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| author | xuran |
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| permlink | big-one |
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| title | "Big.One 上线后，你要做些什么？关于投资的四点硬思考" |
|---|
| body | "
最近出现了这样一张图片——
那个冉公子就是我。这当然不是重点。
Big.One 会准时上线。
这，其实也不是（我考虑）的重点。
真正的重点是，Big.One 上线后，要做什么？
### 1.逆向思维
前段时间，李笑来老师在公众号里推荐了一本书[《股市心理学》](https://steemit.com/cn/@xuran/or-10)，里面有一章节——
>IV Confusing the Present with the Future-- Discounting
>
>It is a sort of automatic assumption of the human mind that present conditions will continue, and our whole scheme of life is necessarily based to a great degree on this assumption.
为了证明这事儿，作者讲了一个故事：
>通常，当小麦的价格走高的时候，农民会种越来越多的小麦；当小麦的价格很低的时候，他们就种的很少了。
>
>我记得我和一个种土豆的生意人聊过一次，他通过种土豆赚了不少钱。他的策略和绝大多数人刚好相反，土豆价格低的时候，就多种土豆；价格高的时候，就减少生产——他的思考是，他知道大多数农产者会和他做相反的事情。
### 2.鳄鱼法则
听过这样一个故事吗？
你知道，鳄鱼的身体巨大，食量惊人。所以，它必须要吃到足够量的食物才能满足身体的需求。可是，足够量的食物，也就意味着，更加难以捕捉，对吧？
鳄鱼是怎么做的呢？
它先是游到岸边，趴在那里埋伏好。你知道，鳄鱼的动静可不小，它一动，周围的鸟啊、猴子、兔子，什么的，全都跑走了。但鳄鱼不管这些，就那么趴在那里一动不动。
开始的几天，那些小动物心里很清楚，靠，趴在那里的可是鳄鱼啊，谁蠢到要过去招惹它。可是，后来呢，鳄鱼实在是太安静了，以至于，小动物们放松了警惕，几乎就忘记这事儿了。它们开始进入鳄鱼的领地。
在等待的这些天里，它还是一动不动。树叶落在它的身上，青苔覆盖了它的身体。一些小动物以为它是一块大树桩，竟然在“树桩”上跳舞。
有那么几次，这些小动物就在它的嘴边。它知道，自己张张嘴，就能把它们吞下去。但它依然没有动。
直到有一天，一群犀牛经过，到河边饮水。十几头犀牛正在它的领地里。
它突然醒了，一击必中。而这一次的收获，够它吃上几个月的。
### 3.大脑天性
追求快速与刺激，是人类的天性。
比如，我们经常看手机里的社交软件。这会让大脑产生更多额多巴胺（dopamine），多巴胺，令大脑更加兴奋。
**我们的天性就是做那些感觉好的事情，而非真正好的事情。**
当这事儿涉及到交易时，这种天性就更加被放大了。
于是，如你了解的那样，各种悲惨的事情就发生了。
如何对抗这种天性呢？
>One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Most people – not that I’m better than most people – always have to be playing; they always have to be doing something. They make a big play and say, “Boy, am I smart, I just tripled my money.” Then they rush out and have to do something else with that money. They can’t just sit there and wait for something new to develop.
>
>– Jim Rogers
### 4.活在未来
我在千聊live的直播【刻意练习的思考模型】里提到一个概念——
>脑中画像
你在做某项练习的时候，你得强迫自己将注意力放在这个练习上，当你清晰的意识到自己每一步都在做什么时，脑袋里就像形成了一张图像，这就是“脑中图像”。
《冰与火之歌》第七部第三集，有个剧情是这样的：
littlefinger 对 sansa 说，战争的结果，只有两种情况。一种是死人打败了活人，这样我们所有的问题就结束了；另一种是活人打败了死人。然后呢？不要单纯想着在北境或者南方作战，永远在脑海中设想每一场战斗。任何人都可能是你的敌人，也可能是你的朋友。所有可能的事件都有可能同时发生。永远在脑海中设想每一场战斗，这样，就不会有出乎你的预料的事。
高手，是经常刻意练习【脑中画像】的。
国际象棋：高手和一般选手的差别在于，高手的脑袋里有更多的应对策略。面对每一次棋路上的变化，高手脑袋里存储了更多的“画像”，所以他们能够在权衡各种方案后，做出正确的判断。比如，阿尔法狗和柯洁的围棋之战，阿尔法狗赢了，他赢得原因就是，他的套路多嘛。
攀岩：专业的攀岩者并不是一上来就攀岩，而是在行动之前，会在脑中形成最佳线路图。在攀爬的过程中不断与脑中形成的线路图进行比对。
高尔夫：专业的球手，在每次挥杆之前，脑中会先形成整个挥杆的动作。而顶级的球手，不但能够在脑中形成挥杆动作，还能在脑中模拟出挥杆的结果，从而再次调整挥杆动作，直到完美。
不管是下棋、攀岩、还是打高尔夫球，如果你想要成为高手，那么，你得学会在脑袋里模拟整个过程。
脑中画像，是预演。
准确地说，脑中图像是大脑中的那一张一张不清晰的图片，或者一段段不清晰的视频，通过刻意练习，它们在大脑里的清晰度越来越高，最终达到准确的程度。
你知道，训练自己脑中画像的能力的目的是什么吗？——
是活在未来。
真正成功的投资者，最准确的定义应该是这样的——
>在未来很长一段时间里，他们知道他们的选择是正确的。
比如，巴菲特投资可口可乐，孙正义投资阿里巴巴，李笑来投资比特币。
他们是有【脑中画像】的人，那个画像告诉他么，未来的收益是清晰可见的，于是，他们做出了选择。而之后的收获，也只不过是选择的成果罢了。
___
### 最后
我一直相信，思考致富这件事儿。
于是，创建了【硬思考】群。再后来，创建了升级版的【用英语】小密圈。
*通过了解一手信息，研究聪明人的思考方式，投资加密货币，获得高倍收益。*
Welcome to the new land.
___
## 历史文章
[0.拆解：经济是如何运转的 （2/2）](https://steemit.com/cn/@xuran/2-2)
[1.拆解：经济是如何运转的（1/2）](https://steemit.com/cn/@xuran/1-2)
[2.《股票心理学》第一章 | 10条硬思考（附英文原版链接）](https://steemit.com/cn/@xuran/or-10)
[3.这是steemit FAQ 中文翻译的合集](https://steemit.com/cn/@xuran/steemit-faq-12-steemit-inc)
[4.关于区块链的10条思考](https://steemit.com/cn/@xuran/pyuq7)
[5.你必须需要的区块链网站资源（一）通识](https://steemit.com/cn/@xuran/5a7njn)
[6.加密货币交易#001 用 CoinMarketCap 做买卖的极简策略](https://steemit.com/cn/@xuran/001-coinmarketcap)
___
我是徐冉 [@xuran](https://steemit.com/@xuran)，是个区块链爱好者，正在研究 Steemit 的生态模式。
如果这篇文章对你有用，欢迎你 关注我（Follow）、点赞（Vote）、回复（Reply）、转发（Resteem）我的文章。" |
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