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My pops @zeartul is one of your top steemit witness, if you like my bellyrubs please go vote for him, if you love what he is doing vote for this comment as well.</p>
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| permlink | do-you-know-a-spy-it-is-more-likely-than-you-think |
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| title | "Do you know a spy? It is more likely than you think.." |
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| body | "http://www.withanaccent.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/James-Bond-Skyfall-Daniel-Craig.jpg
James Bond is probably the best known example for a spy in fiction. Although, he's less of a spy but more of a hitman. Spies do surveillance, intel gathering, sometimes they negotiate and delegate, but first and foremost, they try not to be in the center of things - and if, they try to get out of it as fast as possible again. Unless of course it isn't possible to do so or there is so much at stake that the risk of publicity has to be taken. An example for the latter is [Günter Guillaume](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%BCnter_Guillaume), an Eastern German spy who worked closely with the Western German chancellor. But this case was a big exception and despite the jaw-dropping fact that the Stasi, Eastern Germany's notorious secret service, managed to get so close to the man in power in the west, the case was a failure, because: He got caught.
Anyway, this post is not about the flamboyant imagination of spies - real or not - but about the ones who are do the "average" spy job and there are a lot of them out there.
http://static0.ad.nl/static/photo/2014/10/7/7/20141126064905/media_l_2625487.jpg
## What defines a spy?
A spy is a person who works (or work*ed*, you kind of never quit) for an organization or group, but who doesn't disclose that they are working in this job or what specifically they are working on. The organization behind the spy is representing hidden 3rd party interests of a country, corporation or non-profit organization. Their means a usually legal, but can involve illegal means. Their goals are hidden and can be illegal and are normally at least controversial because otherwise the hidden agenda wouldn't be necessary.
Spies can be characterized as driven by money, by excitement, by conviction or by blackmail. Sometimes several or even all the characteristics can apply. *Normal spies* - those who do it based on their free will - usually get a proper training and a pension. It's a job like any other.
https://img.cinemablend.com/filter:scale/quill/5/5/d/e/7/6/55de768ce9a00c306cb760a12df6399150c02abb.jpg?mw=600
## Areas of work and organizational differences
Spies can work autonomously, but they are usually embedded in a top-down organization and have to stick to the limitations given by that. As mentioned above, there are three different types of spy organizations:
1. Government (inland, foreign, military, science, counter espionage, political, crime)
2. Corporate (counter espionage, market espionage, technology theft)
3. Non-Profit (political, ideology)
Every country has a different mix of those organizations. Usually it depends on the population size of the country, it's wealth, it's strategic position (this attracts foreign spies), it's political mentality and the success of its own counter espionage.
That is why every country has different types of spies, different organizations and "specialties" and also a different number of spies.
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/images/stasi6-dpa/6056162/3-format3001.jpg
## Things are different everywhere, but you can get to a bottom-line
<br />
Let's take the official secret services of the United States as an example. According to Wikipdia, they have the following [16 intelligence agencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Intelligence_Community). Here are the biggest of them:
- [NSA](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency) (40.000 employees)
- [CIA](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Intelligence_Agency) (21.000)
- [FBI](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Bureau_of_Investigation) (36.000)
- [NGA](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Reconnaissance_Office) (15.000)
- [USAI](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Intelligence) (28.000)
- [DIA](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Force_Intelligence,_Surveillance_and_Reconnaissance_Agency) (16.000)
- [INSCOM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Intelligence_and_Security_Command) (10.000)
In total they have around 166.000 employees. The population of the US is currently at ~325 Million, which comes down to roughly 1:2000.
Now, you could think, the USA is the single most important country in the world. But it doesn't look much different in other places and there are countries which are well above that level. Of course, the more totalitarian a country is, the more spy agencies and spies they run. But actually, all "normal" countries have their fair share of spooks when they reach a certain size and importance. France for example is running [nine secret services](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_intelligence_agencies_of_France) with at a total of least 20.000 employees. That isn't far behind the United States when you look at the per capita value (1:3500).
http://www.neuepresse.de/var/storage/images/rnd/kultur/uebersicht/kingsmen-2-agenten-leben-nur-zweimal/625548791-2-ger-DE/Kingsmen-2-Agenten-leben-nur-zweimal_ArtikelQuer.jpg
## How many people do you know and under what circumstances are you meeting them?
The overall average is of course not very interesting when it comes to the question of how many spies someone individually knows (usually without realizing it). Therefore the raw number has to be broken up a bit more and discounted by:
1. Children
2. Elderly
3. "Boring" people
The part with children is obvious. No-one below the age of 20 and [the fewest below the age of 25 are relevant in espionage](http://i.imgur.com/7zCgWUD.jpg), even if they can be the most interesting and important. The bottom line is, that the average number grows by about **20%** - in case you usually meet adults. In case you meet children, well, then you probably never run into a spy.
A bit less obvious is it with the elderly. I have mentioned the reason for that before: You never really quit. I know for example a spy (actually he was quite a spy master) who got active at the age of 80 for a job. Nonetheless, normal spies have e pension age too. That is why, when you meet an old person beyond 65 it is very unlikely that you meed an active spy. So, unless you work in a retirement home, your likelihood increases even more by about **15%**.
The part with "boring" people needs an explanation. Those are not (necessarily) boring individuals, but simply people, who work, live and do things in areas that are of low interest for espionage. Running a bakery for example or jobs that do not demand a high expertise, don't have a connection to technology or a high money throughput (or other valuables). Of course there are always exceptions and sometimes the most "boring" cover is the best one, but you when looking at areas of potential interest to cover, spies concentrate the same way as others (like interior designers) concentrate.
Overall, this can increase the value of unknowingly knowing a spy by several factors, because only about 25% percent of the population work in "interesting" areas. What you can definitively do is discount the half of the population which does not work and which includes children and the elderly.
So, if you meet most people in a professional environment, in the USA the statistical chances are about 1:1000 and in France it is somewhere at 1:1750 to run into a government spy.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/36/Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-F042453-0011%2C_Niedersachsen%2C_Brandt_im_Wahlkampf.jpg/330px-Bundesarchiv_B_145_Bild-F042453-0011%2C_Niedersachsen%2C_Brandt_im_Wahlkampf.jpg
## 1:1000 may sound like a lot but th number is even higher
So far, only active government agencies have been accounted for. But there are two other types of spy organizations, there are foreign governments who are doing espionage and there are *former spy agencies* which can still play a role.
1. Espionage is very important for big corporations. They all have it and impart their spy divisions are a revolving door for government espionage. Behind the curtain, things usually are by far less distinguishable than it looks from far away. Consider the same share of corporate espionage as it is for the general population. That means, if a corporation has 52.000 employees like for example [Du Pont](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DuPont), then the corporate espionage should have around 25-50 employees who do espionage full-time.
2. Non-profits do more espionage than you might think. Political parties and interest group run think tanks and some religious and other communities have their spy networks. It is hard to account who and how many organizations can be counted into this area. But just to give you a figure, the DITIB, a mosque network officially run by the Turkish government is said to have at last one spy in every mosque and [they run about 1.000 of them in Germany](https://jungefreiheit.de/politik/deutschland/2017/ditib-gibt-spionage-in-deutschland-zu/).
3. Other governments and foreign corporations have to be counted in as well. Most of the foreign espionage is legal and just intelligence gathering and networking with important individuals to secure the interest of the country. Some of the activities can also be illegal, if you look for example at the [Wasserman-Schultz/Awan Brothers case](http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-12/rep-franks-predicts-awans-will-get-immunity-significant-disturbing-story-about-wasse) in the USA or at the Mongol spies [who got caught](http://www.sueddeutsche.de/adblock) in Germany. Fact is, even small countries are active - and at the end of the day they have to be active and probably be more active in relative then bigger countries to secure their interests.
4. A very special case are former spy organizations. Take the KGB or the above mentioned Staatssicherheit (Stasi) of the former Eastern Germany. In its heydays the [Stasi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasi) had a total of about 270.000 official and inofficial employees. That in a country of 16,6million. Let that sink in: **One in 62 citizens worked as spy!** Well, it is now almost 30 years since the end of the GDR and a lot of the former Stasi employees are now dead, in pension, in prison, or they went a different way. That should account for about half of them. Question is: *What is with the other half that is still alive, still active in their life and still convinced about the true end of history?* Well, turns out they are everywhere, but that is a different story. For now this means that depending on the country you live in, you have to add impart huge former security apparatuses. The apparatus may have gone down, but its former members are still active. They may do things privately now or under a new disguise, but it's essentially still the same thing they are doing.
https://i.pinimg.com/564x/dc/95/ad/dc95ad6eaf320d440a199770e624c94d.jpg
## ...and the place with the highest likelihood of running into a spy is..
Germany. Especially, if you count in the Stasi, it is depending on the environment you are moving in actually much more likely to meet one than not meeting one.
On top, Germany was one of the main battlegrounds for the hidden espionage war between the two blocks of the Cold War. While the German secret services are relatively small, the United States still has [a significant presence in Germany](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_Aibling_Station) with many military and espionage installations.
Another reason is Germany's size and position. It has the biggest population in Europe, has the biggest industry and is literally in the middle. For dozens of countries and hundreds of corporations and NGOs it is natural to try and secure their interest in Germany.
Also, Germany has plenty of corporations that have a notorious history of running their own [secret services](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IG_Farben) and their left overs still do it. It is also not just Turkey with its big exile community in Germany which is doing extensive spying, but also Russia (~0,5m citizens) and others.
https://pmcvariety.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/archer.jpg?w=670&h=377&crop=1
## Overall for Germany I the realistic ratio of spies to general population is 1:200
The conservative value is at about 1:400 and the upper end at 1:100, which is very much but not beyond the possible. Without Stasi the ratio should be somewhere at 1:1000 to 1:700, which is significantly less, but compared to most other places on the planet its still astronomically much.
Exceptions with a comparably high spy to population ratio are Singapore, Taiwan, Qatar, Hong Kong, South Korea and Switzerland. Additionally to that the financial and trade centers like New York, London, Amsterdam, Kairo and a few places where the rules don't apply so much like Miami, Caracas and Islamabad, which is not a compliment.
## What's the bottom line of this?
No matter where you live, you are surrounded by a tight network of hidden third party interests that control everyone's life and make sure no-one's doing something unintended. If you think that sometimes even big coincidences happen, then think again." |
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