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| title | "인플레 우려와 증시 전망" |
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| body | "
금융위기 이후 10년 만에 반갑지 않은 용어가 재등장하고 있다. 그것은 인플레이션이다. 세계와 한국 증시를 흔들어 놓고 있다. 특히 요즘 들어 인플레 우려가 확산되면서 각국 국채금리가 급등하자 증시가 변동성(급등락)이 심한 Wobbling Market 현상을 나타내고 있다. 금융위기 이후 저물가•저금리로 자산가격의 상승과 경기회복을 주도한 각국 정부와 중앙은행이 인플레에
직면하고 있는 것이 사실이다. 예측력이 가장 뛰어난 국제 통화기금(IMF)의 올해 세계경제 성장률 예상(전망)치는 3.9%다. 세계경제 잠재 성장률(실적치)은 3.6% 내외다. GDP 갭(전망치−실적치)을 구하면 +0.3%로 나온다. 금년에 위기 후 처음으로 세계경제가 인플레 갭이 발생하는 것이다. 한국경제도 사정은 별반 다르지 않다. 증시가 민감한 이유도 여기에 있다. GDP 갭은
디플레 갭과 인플레 갭이 있다. 전자는 실제 성장률에서 잠재 성장률을 뺀 것이 마이너스(−)일 때, 후자는 플러스(+)일 때를 의미한다. 전자 국면에서 물가가 올라가는 리플레이션은 증시에 호재이며 후자 국면에서 물가가 올라가는 인플레이션은 악재다. 최근 트럼프 행정부는 금년부터 법인세 인하와 뉴딜 정책을 본격적으로 추진한다. 이것은 재정인플레 우려를 더욱 가중시킨다.
위 그림은 이해를 돕기위한 미국의 개인소비지출물가(PCE)와 근원PCE를 나타내는 지표이다. 최근에 양 물가지표가 오름세로 전환된 것을 확인할 수 있다(빨간 동그라미).
재정지출과 임금상승은 모두 하방경직적인 특성을 갖고 있다. 재정지출이 증가하면 성장률과 인플레가 동시에 높아진다. 하지만 임금상승률이 높아지면 성장률 둔화 속에 물가가 올라가는 Stagflation국면에 들어간다. 두 요인이 겹치면 물가는 확실히 올라가기 때문에 각국 중앙은행은 출구전략을 부득이 앞당겨야 한다. 장기간의 양적완화 때 사용한 부채로 인한 After Shock 우려도 급부상할 가능성이 높다고 봐야한다. 이는 위기를 낳게 한 System이 해결되지 않으면 찾아오며 위기 10년 주기설과 맥을 같이 하는 특징이 있다.
세계증시가 급한 조정을 보이자 곧바로 폭락설이 제기되는 것도 불확실성이 원인이다. 하지만 경기와 기업실적 등과 같은 기초체력(Fundamentals)이 건전한 점을 근거로 조만간 증시가 재상승 국면에 복귀할 것이라는 기대도 적지 않다. 추가 폭락설과 재상승론. 이 두 상반된 견해가 있지만 향후 세계와 한국 증시가 방향을 어느 쪽으로 잡는지를 알기 위해서는 지속적으로 성장할 경제paradigm의 변화가 어디까지 와 있는가를 따져봐야 할 것이다.
경제에 큰 층격을 준 금융위기로 인해 경기회복의 주도를 각국 정부와 중앙은행이 해온 지금까지와는 달리 앞으로는 민간이 자율적으로 성장할 수 있는 단계로 넘어가야 한다. 특정국 경기가 민간 자발적으로 성장하기 위해서는 소비와 설비투자가 늘어나야 한다. 특히 돈의 힘으로 밀어 올리는 부(富)의 효과보다 임금소득이 소비를 지탱해줘야 생산적인 성장이 지속 가능하다.
각국의 일자리 창출 노력 등으로 양적 고용지표인 실업률은 계속 떨어지고 있다. 거의 모두가 완전고용수준이다. 하지만 노동생산성 등과 같은 질적 고용지표가 추세적으로 개선되어야 소비도 지속적으로 이루어진다. 하지만 현실은 아직 미약하다. 금세기 들어 인공지능(AI) 등의 기대가 높은 4차 산업도 마찬가지다. 이 산업은 수확체증의 법칙이 적용돼 성장하면서도 고용이 거의 창출되지 않는 특징이 있다. 반면에 SOC같은 뉴딜정책은 고용을 창출하면서 성장한다.
앞으로 한참동안은 정책요인에 의한 유동성 공급은 어려워질 것으로 예상된다. 이런 여건 속에서 주가가 재상승하기 위해서는 채권에서 이탈한 자금이 증시로 유입되는 Great Rotation(GR)이 나타나야 한다. 하지만 최근에는 GR뿐만 아니라 증시에서 채권으로의 자금이동을 뜻하는 Money Move(MM)도 나타나지 않으면서 끊임없이 이동하는 Nomad 현상이 재현되고 있다.
아직 인플레와 출구전략, After Shock 우려를 불식시키고 증시의 재상승을 확신할 수 있는 경기와 유동성 측면에서의 구조변화가 불확실하다. 앞으로 투자자는 증시가 상승하더라도 유의할 점이 2가지가 있다. 하나는 기저(基底)효과로 인한 상승률의 둔화이고, 다른 하나는 조정론(하락)과 낙관론(상승)이 혼재해서 급등락이 심해질 것이라는 점이다.
- - - -
**읽어 주셔서 감사합니다.**" |
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| body | "Wizard Sloth gathers his powers, to re-count with a decisive argument!
>“If we believe in nothing, if nothing has any meaning and if we can affirm no values whatsoever, then everything is possible and nothing has any importance.”
@rollthedice" |
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%3E%0A%0A%0A
-%3Ccenter%3E !%5Bcambio-presuposicion.png%5D(https://steemitimages.com/DQmbgGXYBU3nS9ZUgN2X8wETByxvj8anEVkFafRkY4pkaEm/cambio-presuposicion.png)%3C/center%3E%0A%0A%3Chr%3E%0A%0A
# %3Cc
@@ -3778,32 +3778,187 @@
p%3E%3C/div%3E%0A%0A%3Chr%3E%0A%0A
+%0A%3Ccenter%3E !%5Bcambio-presuposicion.png%5D(https://steemitimages.com/DQmbgGXYBU3nS9ZUgN2X8wETByxvj8anEVkFafRkY4pkaEm/cambio-presuposicion.png)%3C/center%3E%0A%0A%0A%3Chr%3E%0A%0A
### %3Ccenter%3E----
@@ -4480,148 +4480,8 @@
am.%0A
-##### %3Cul%3E Cita de la Presuposici%C3%B3n de la PNL, elaboraci%C3%B3n propia en %5BFacebook%5D(https://www.facebook.com/joslud.106/posts/1454544918001442)%0A
####
@@ -4651,16 +4651,156 @@
n GifCam
+%0A##### %3Cul%3E Cita de la Presuposici%C3%B3n de la PNL, elaboraci%C3%B3n propia en %5BFacebook%5D(https://www.facebook.com/joslud.106/posts/1454544918001442)
%0A%0A### %3Cc
" |
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| body | "<p>Congratulations! This post has been upvoted from the communal account, @minnowsupport, by Mhizsophie from the Minnow Support Project. It's a witness project run by aggroed, ausbitbank, teamsteem, theprophet0, someguy123, neoxian, followbtcnews, and netuoso. The goal is to help Steemit grow by supporting Minnows. Please find us at the <a href="https://discord.gg/HYj4yvw"> Peace, Abundance, and Liberty Network (PALnet) Discord Channel</a>. It's a completely public and open space to all members of the Steemit community who voluntarily choose to be there.</p> <p>If you would like to delegate to the Minnow Support Project you can do so by clicking on the following links: <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=minnowsupport&vesting_shares=102530.639667%20VESTS">50SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=minnowsupport&vesting_shares=205303.639667%20VESTS">100SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=minnowsupport&vesting_shares=514303.639667%20VESTS">250SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=minnowsupport&vesting_shares=1025303.639667%20VESTS">500SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=minnowsupport&vesting_shares=2053030.639667%20VESTS">1000SP</a>, <a href="https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/delegateVestingShares?delegator=&delegatee=minnowsupport&vesting_shares=10253030.639667%20VESTS">5000SP</a>. <br><strong>Be sure to leave at least 50SP undelegated on your account.</strong></p>" |
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| title | "" |
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| body | "부지런한 옥자님.. 이 아침에 벌써 이런, 딱 땡기는 레시피를 올리셨네요...괴로움을 동반하는 포스팅이네요 게으른 저에겐...^^넘나 맛있어 보여요. 미미한 보팅 드리며, 감사해요." |
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| title | "" |
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| body | "I really want to help! I asked another member of the Nigerian community already, but do you guys have a tag that you all use to keep track of everything/everybody? Like a #teamnigeria tag? If not, you totally should, and make sure everyone in your community is using that tag in their posts! It's a super efficient way to keep track of everything happening!" |
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mal werd
-n
e
+n
hier sa
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| signatures | | 0. | 1f52f5e838e6d3bcbec5b97e23e9fc137ad45a61115aaae6d4da793adf7ab25bdf0aa4dfe01b80532c6543b4d405c654e0ad48ef3dba72872a8eed688f2358f42b |
|---|
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|---|
| transaction_id | 181d2436905fdfbaae29082232416d7eea25cd46 |
|---|
| block_num | 20,161,188 |
|---|
| transaction_num | 49 |
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|
|---|
| 50. | | ref_block_num | 41,632 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 4,126,117,607 |
|---|
| expiration | 2018-02-24 21:39:24 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
|---|
| 1. | | voter | karahl |
|---|
| author | ahidmuhajir |
|---|
| permlink | kangaroo-or-post-photos-21-02-18-4-70 |
|---|
| weight | 10,000 |
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|---|
|
|---|
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|---|
| extensions | [] |
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| signatures | | 0. | 1f65dbd2ce19c86e8585aec7429c68e5678ace29f907674ed45ba33043bdac65d635bf6b6ac6875b882a5d3d66ec9fc113f3799dfdc3a015179818658423cdff79 |
|---|
|
|---|
| transaction_id | 54d9f559eaaa97e38f34eb9d7ade2e706eb9421c |
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| block_num | 20,161,188 |
|---|
| transaction_num | 50 |
|---|
|
|---|
| 51. | | ref_block_num | 41,613 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 3,550,490,716 |
|---|
| expiration | 2018-02-24 21:48:24 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
|---|
| 1. | | voter | pv-p |
|---|
| author | goldkey |
|---|
| permlink | re-pv-p-re-goldkey-free-silver-celebrating-two-thousand-followers-with-two-fat-ounces-of-free-silver-20180223t130602584z |
|---|
| weight | 10,000 |
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| extensions | [] |
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| signatures | | 0. | 1f4ed7fc5d17b80a9f5dd7f7f7b9e37835c7494f5d336c1be767b105567f0421672e36d66602e9be22d37eaa6ac4c581eba591c76ac6f8a7da275695b3ea989e6e |
|---|
|
|---|
| transaction_id | 43f0fc54dc8aee86b8082874ab4d704d2e703471 |
|---|
| block_num | 20,161,188 |
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| transaction_num | 51 |
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|---|
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hiveblocks