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| author | lordoftruth |
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| permlink | bitcoin-trend-series-ep-562-swingy-move-before-the-next-surge-steem-bounty-reward |
|---|
| title | "Bitcoin Trend Series / EP. 562 / Swingy Move Before The Next Surge / Steem Bounty Reward" |
|---|
| body | "Time: 8.22 A.M. / GM+2 / 14 Apr 2018 – Sat.
So the jump was done due to the bullish reversal on March 30 as our forecast on / <a href="https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lordoftruth/bitcoin-trend-series-ep-556-pretty-upside-move-on-the-way-steem-bounty-reward">556</a> / when we wrote:
<blockquote> The swing between 6.49K and 7.12K will take end and the trend will become bullish around 12-15 April as I am expecting a pretty upside move. </blockquote>
The question now is what after the jumb?!
<center>**Market Factors**</center>
Supporting the upside move at this moment are:
- The current geopolitical tensions between the United States and Russia amid a potential military intervention in Syria, because the fear drives investors away from higher-yielding assets as they flock towards safer assets, such as gold and crypto as US President Donald Trump has ordered precision strikes targeting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's chemical weapons capabilities, in conjunction with and Russia claims chemical attack in Syria was "staged and directed by UK".
- The expected selling pressure due to U.S tax payment deadlines seems to have abated.
- The ratio of short trades versus longs in Bitcoin have been at extreme levels and, as buying increased, the shorts got liquidated, causing a squeeze.
- Sowa Labs, a subsidiary of Germany’s second largest stock exchange Börse Stuttgart, will release a cryptocurrency trading app ( Bison ) later this year, according to the app’s website.
<center>
<a href="https://tasianwatch.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/a41f72773d1b1838998d25.jpg">Source</a></center>
<center>**Technical**</center>
- In our previous post / <a href="https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lordoftruth/bitcoin-trend-series-ep-561-the-infection-is-over-steem-bounty-reward"> 561</a> / we had forecast the trading range will be between 7.38K and 8.26K. The intraday high was 8.24K and the low was 7.76K.
And as our prediction in last post: <blockquote> "A swingy pattern might be formed soon between 7.38K and 8.26K but bitcoin could resume trading on fundamentals.." </blockquote>
We still believe, a ping pong move between 7.38K and 8.26K will start soon.
- Bitcoin price hasn't seen more than 5 green daily candles in a row since the reversal, while it seems as though 6.49K is going to hold in the long run, would it be smarter to wait for a pull back from here to around 7.3K region before taking long positions.
- Keep an eye on the momentum indicator. It's in the process of forming a higher swing high as we'd need to see a series of higher price-swing highs and lows to can see another surge higher.
<center>**Sentiment**</center>
The trend is bullish as long as we are above 7.38K but a swingy move most likely start and the price might move towards 6.95K - 7.38K area by Monday before the next surge towards our next target located at 8.643K.
Support 1: 7380.00 level.
Resistance1 : 8260.00 level.
Support 2: 6950.00 level.
Resistance2 : 8643.00 level.
Expected trading for today:
is between 7380.00 and 8260.00.
Expected trend for today :
Bullish.
Medium Term:
Neutral.
Long Term:
Bullish.
The low of 2018:
5947.00.
The high of 2018 (BitcoinTrader's Year):
14000.00 level / Expected.
The high of 2019 (Bitcoin Holder's Year):
??? The new all time high is expected.
<center></center>
<center>**Remember in order to qualify for a @steem-bounty reward
/ Project by @knircky & @famunger /**
You must write a comment to the this post.</center>
<center></center>
<center>YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL POSTED ON THIS BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS. TO BUY OR SELL BITCOIN OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. </center>
<center>Writing a series means playing a long game,
investing considerable time and effort up front in
hopes of considerable returns down the road.
I'm so proud of my little blog, and so grateful to all of you
for support to keep it going.
</center>
<center><a href="https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lordoftruth/forex-education-center-volume-i"><strong>If You are New in Trading --> Read Trading Education Center / Volume I.</strong></a> </center>
<center><a href="https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lordoftruth/fibonacci-retracement-in-trending-market"><strong> What You Know About --> Fibonacci Retracement in Trending Market.</strong></a> </center>
<center></center>" |
|---|
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| title | "200일 이평선, 매도 신호로 적당한가?" |
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</center>
지난 4월 2일 S&P 500 지수가 거의 2년 만에 200일 이평선을 하향 돌파한 후, 다시 반등했습니다.
투자자와 트레이더 모두 대규모 하락장이 시작되기 전에 시장에서 빠져나오기 위한 시점 선택 신호로 이 200일 이평선에 주목하고 있습니다. 전설적인 헤지 펀드 매니저 폴 튜더 존스는 이렇게 말합니다.
>투자의 핵심은 깡통을 차지 않고 시장에서 계속 살아남는 것이다. 200일 이평선을 사용하면, 시장 급락 전에 시장에서 빠져나올 수 있다. 200일 이평선은 방어적 수단이며, 큰 손실을 막아준다.
투자자라면 어떤 지표를 맹목적으로 받아들여 시장에서 빠져나오는데 신중해야 합니다. 추세가 깨졌다는 이유만으로 시장이 붕괴한다는 보장이 없기 때문입니다. 매번 작동하는 시장 타이밍 시그널 같은 것은 존재하지 않기 때문에, 시장이 조정을 보이고 있다고 해서 전면적인 하락장으로 변할지도 알 수 없는 것입니다.
200일 이평선 지표는 완벽한 시장 진입/청산 시점 선택 수단이라기보다는 현재 같은 시장 환경에서 훨씬 더 유용하게 사용할 수 있습니다. 다음 차트는 1928년 이후 S&P 500 지수가 200일 이평선 보다 높거나 낮을 경우의 통계치를 나타낸 것입니다.
<center>
</center>
지난 90여 년 동안 주가는 전체 기간 중 약 3분의 2에서 200일 이평선 위에, 3분의 1에서 아래에 있었습니다. 이 기간 동안 전체적인 변동성은 18.6%였으므로, 시장이 200일 이평선 위에 있던 상승 추세 기간 동안의 수익률은 평균보다 더 높았고, 변동성은 200일 이평선 아래에 있던 기간 동안보다 더 낮았습니다.
이러한 신호는 종종 투자자들에게 시장의 정확도에 대해 잘못된 인식을 심어주곤 합니다. 다음 차트는 1997년 이후 S&P 500 지수의 동향을 200일 이평선과 함께 나타낸 것입니다.
<center>
</center>
200일 이평선을 시장 탈출 신호로 사용했던 투자자들은 2000-2002년 및 2007-2009년에서 발생한 대규모 손실 대부분을 피할 수 있었을 것입니다. 하지만, 그 과정에서는 많은 가짜 신호가 있었습니다. 실제, S&P 500 지수는 1997년 이래 200일 이평선을 150차례 상하로 돌파했었습니다. 이것이 신호로서 완벽한 역할을 했다면, 75차례의 시장 조정이 있었을 것입니다.
하지만 실제로, 이 기간 동안 주가가 10% 이상 하락했던 시장 조정은 단 11차례에 불과했습니다. 이 말은 S&P 500 지수가 200일 이평선을 하향 돌파했던 시점 대부분이 가짜 신호였음을 의미하며, 투자자들이 이 신호를 바탕으로 시장을 서둘러 빠져나갔다면, 다시 시장에 들어오기 위해서 더 높은 가격을 지불해야 했을 것입니다.
와튼 스쿨의 제레미 시겔 교수는 다우존스 산업 평균 지수를 사용해, 1886년부터 2012년까지 200일 이평선을 시험했습니다. 시겔 교수는 거짓 신호를 없애고 거래하기 위해, 200일 이평선 상하로 1%의 밴드를 설정하고, 주가가 이 밴드를 상향 돌파할 때 매수하고, 하향 돌파할 때 매도하는 전략을 시험했습니다.
이 연구에서는 투자자들이 200일 이평선을 통해 역사상 가장 컸던 단기적 시장 급락(1929년 10월의 검은 화요일과 1987년 10월의 검은 월요일 등)을 피했더라면 수익률에 상당한 도움이 되었음을 보여줍니다. 또한 200일 이평선의 신호는 지난 마지막 금융 위기에서 경험했던 엄청난 손실을 피하는데도 도움이 되었을 것입니다.
시겔 교수의 연구 결과는 1886~2012년 기간 동안 연평균 9.7%의 수익률을 기록해, 단순한 매수 후 전략의 수익률(9.4%) 보다 약간 나았습니다. 하지만 거래 비용이 포함시키면 8.1%로 수익률로 떨어졌습니다.
그렇다고 200일 이평선이 기능하지 않는다는 의미는 아닙니다. 투자자가 200일 이평선 같은 지표를 위험 관리 수단으로 사용할 경우, 기대치를 어느 정도 재조정할 필요가 있다는 말입니다. 주가가 하락하기 직전마다 빠져나오게 해 줄 수 있는 신호가 있었다면, 모든 이들이 사용했을 될 테니까요.
주식 시장에서는 왕도란 없습니다. 다음 하락장 동안 어느 순간이 되면 200일 이평선의 기능도 깨질 것입니다. 그것이 바로 시장입니다. 하지만 가장 최근의 흐름만으로는 하락장이 임박했다고 확신할 만한 신호가 부족합니다. 시장이 조정을 보인다고 해서 반드시 하락장으로 돌입한다고 할 수 없기. 역사는 시장에서 하향 돌파가 추가의 하락장으로 이어진 경우보다, 거짓 소음이었던 경우가 훨씬 많았음을 말해주고 있습니다.
현재 상황에서 투자자들이 200일 이평선 하향 돌파를 두고 염두에 둬야 할 점은 시장이 하락 추세에 접어들면 당분간은 큰 변동성을 보인다는 것입니다. 시장이 하락 추세에 있는 한, 매일 상방이든 하방이든 큰 변동성이 일상이 될 가능성이 높습니다.
<출처: Bloomberg, "Don't Use the 200-Day Moving Average as a Sell Signal">" |
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| title | "Text-to-Speech: The Truth About Griffith High School" |
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This is an old text-to-speech video i did back in 2013 on the truth about a school called griffith high school, if you enjoy this video like,comment,share & subscribe for more awesome content.
<hr><a href='https://d.tube/#!/v/jesscariostudios/8mtniig3'> ▶️ DTube</a><br /><a href='https://ipfs.io/ipfs/QmVoV9T3iWKMh9wDGUFyANd8ygT4j5jdduTvL3SVg2ERZm'> ▶️ IPFS</a>" |
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| extensions | [] |
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| signatures | | 0. | 1f786e4cea092fe5ddb8076f00550a2e5dc7ac74b0b8f42590356c0f2566bf5d972d4bd531266e73074bce093c0c213e6b4d941bd134a5a96ce7ee3d2422b84bff |
|---|
|
|---|
| transaction_id | fa66629c604765f56878ab79d685c738913f3355 |
|---|
| block_num | 21,551,161 |
|---|
| transaction_num | 49 |
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|
|---|
| 50. | | ref_block_num | 55,334 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 2,881,084,809 |
|---|
| expiration | 2018-04-14 05:32:00 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | transfer |
|---|
| 1. | | from | nian99 |
|---|
| to | broncnutz |
|---|
| amount | 1.000 HBD |
|---|
| memo | "" |
|---|
|
|---|
|
|---|
|
|---|
| extensions | [] |
|---|
| signatures | | 0. | 2077dda390227957014032cabd7c9c02dcff3fb329b6808c0f972ad57ef9c565cb17199a02df71db1664889e88588d4e20185472a6c531fbd8429c1c16bd85fff6 |
|---|
|
|---|
| transaction_id | 31efc76b895c80cdc66d3c930e145663e44fdb62 |
|---|
| block_num | 21,551,161 |
|---|
| transaction_num | 50 |
|---|
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|---|
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|---|
hiveblocks