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| permlink | tib-today-i-bought-and-sold-an-investors-journal-478-italian-insurance-german-bank-us-bank-cybersecurity-us-index-covered-calls |
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| title | "TIB: Today I Bought (and Sold) - An Investors Journal #478 - Italian Insurance, German Bank, US Bank, Cybersecurity, US Index, Covered Calls" |
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| body | "Markets open nervously on the back of China trade fears. Market questions Saudi truthfulness on extent of oilfields damage. Trade action is profit taking in Italy sent some to Germany. Buying back some stocks assigned and setting in place next cycle of hedges.
<h3>Portfolio News</h3>
**Market Flip Flop**
Market showed some nerves with yields falling and gold rising
Attention went back to the apparent lack of progress on China trade talks. Worth repeating the salient points on this article
- America’s economic growth would be well served if Washington focused on a quick rebalancing of US-China trade accounts.
- US attempts to reach a comprehensive trade deal by interfering in China’s sovereign domains of economic legislation under threat of discretionary sanctions are unacceptable to Beijing.
- Washington can protect its economy from illegal and unfair trade behavior by applying its existing trade legislation and strict reciprocity principles.
The main tenet of the article is the politicians have got it wrong. Yes, the trade imbalance is a problem. The better way to deal with it is to reduce exports to US from China (somewhat achieved) and increase imports from US to China (not achieved - in fact the opposite). Tariffs are not the way.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/23/commentary-us-gains-nothing-from-protracted-trade-dispute-with-china.html
Biggest movers up in my portfolios are oil services supplier, McDermott International (MDR) up 17% and silver and gold miners, Couer Mining (CDE - up 10%) and Yamana Mining (RNY.DE - up 4.6%)
Oil prices continue to track sideways after the spike on the Saudi attacks.
There is more than meets the eye as to how long it will take to get supply flowing again. Oil industry experts are saying the Saudis are withholding the true story and are basically lying (as they always do is the rider they add)
More concerning is the way the hedge fund traders were positioned long before the attacks at a time when the mood was to be out or short as demand falls.
Two articles from same source but different writers.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-The-Saudis-Are-Lying-About-Their-Oil-Production.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Aramco-Lying-About-Its-Damaged-Oil-Infrastructure.html
<h3>Bought</h3>
**Citigroup** (C): US Bank. Replaced stock assigned on September expiry covered calls. Jim Cramer idea to buy at or below tangible book value. As assignments also sold Bank of America Corporation (BAC) I did want to add back some US bank exposure.
**Commerzbank AG** (CBK.DE): German Bank. I have watched price move in a tight band around the €5.60 level (at which I bought back covered calls last week) and drop hard today. Trade idea is for a short term move back to levels stock was trading at last week. Bought December 2019 5.4/6 bull call spread for a net premium of €0.22 which offers a maximum profit potential of 82% if price moves 11% from the trade opening price of €5.38. Of note is price did drop 7.46% on the day to close at €5.30. Trade size was price of dinner for two at my favourite Thai restaurant in the Hunter valley.
Let's look at the chart which shows the bought call (5.4) as a green ray and the sold call (6) as a red ray with the expiry date the dotted red line on the right margin.
The trade lies within the range that price has been since the September lows. Price typically makes a W formation after a big drop. I have modelled one of those (left hand purple formation). One could equally take the next one along. Get a repeat of that pattern on the current move and this trade has a chance of reaching the maximum by December expiry. I have not cloned it across for the display as it blocks out the key data (believe me it works)
**FireEye** (FEYE): Cybersecurity. Replaced stock assigned on covered calls in two portfolios just over the $14 assigned price. I have put pending orders in to write covered calls.
<h3>Sold</h3>
**Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A.** (G.MI): With closing price of €17.91, December 2019 strike 16 call options are well in-the-money and now trading above my trade breakeven. Closed out as I continue to exit Italy for 65% blended profit since February and Novemebr 2017. Profits partly deployed in Germany. Quick update of the chart which
shows the trade as blue rays.
Price started to move along the green arrow price scenario and then consolidated. That suggests to me that we could see a new green arrow scenario starting from the bottom of the consolidation (new dotted green line). Price has touched breakeven twice and now broken through. My sense is the trade will run out of time before reaching 100% = strong enough reason to take off the trade. I did not want to extend to a longer expiry or roll up a strike.
<h3>Shorts</h3>
**SPDR S&P 500 ETF** (SPY): With opening price of $298.30 I set up the next hedging trade to cover a price drop between 5% and 10%. Bought a November 2019 283/270 bear put ratio spread for a net premium of $0.06 (i.e., I did have to pay something). Let's look at the chart which shows the bought put (283) as a red ray and the sold put (270) as a blue ray with the expiry date the dotted green line on the right margin
The trade provides protection for a pink arrow scenario similar to those seen in Q2 and Q3 of 2018. Of course if there is a correction like the big fall in late 2018, the ratio spread will not work as designed and I will be forced to buy stock at $270. Price has pushed up to the highs twice now and it could well break higher. If it does that I will buy back some of the sold puts (i.e., convert the ratio spread to a bear put spread).
[Means: Put Ratio Spread. Sell more options than one buys with sold premium funding bought premium. ]
<h3>Income Trades</h3>
Started the process for writing covered calls for October expiry on Friday. This month I am leaning to a higher than 5% coverage ratio
A quick reminder on my process for writing covered calls.
- Select stocks I am happy to sell if I get exercised.
- Calculate 5% move up in price from previous day close (7.5% for technology stocks; 10% for stocks under water; 20% for leveraged stocks)
- Choose a one month out call option closest to percentage move up in price.
- Place a bid between bid and ask. Ideally one should aim for a premium of about 1% to make this worthwhile
The table shows purchase price and closing price, the premium received and the % relative to close and to purchase price. The strike is shown and the important columns after that are the amount price has to move to reach the strike price - you will see they are all around 5% with a few more than that. The net cost column is updated each month to show purchase price less accumulated premium received - the percentage column at the end shows what contribution income has made compared to purchase price.
Achieved 0.83% average premium to closing prices with coverage of 11%
<h3>Cryptocurency</h3>
**Bitcoin** (BTCUSD): Price range for the day was $442 (4.4% of the high). Price drops through support at $9954 and takes out the spike low from last week ($9600) making for 3 lower lows in this current cycle.
Now there has been a lot of talk about the launch of Bakkt Bitcoin Futures launched on September 23. Expectations were for price to rise.
Futures markets allow participants to enter a market without investing in the underlying, which is the way CME Bitcoin futures work. ON CME, trades are settled in US Dollars and margin is held in US Dollars = traders do not have to hold any Bitcoin. What this does is actually take funds flow away from the underlying commodity. The next chart is a weekly chart for Bitcoin - the fall coincides to the week with the launch of CME Bitcoin futures on December 18, 2017.
Hard to talk about cause and effect as the CME volumes did not suggest such a massive shift - there is a big bubble effect in here too. Now the Bakkt futures are settled in Bitcoin, not US Dollars, so there should be a net demand for Bitcoin when the first settlement cycle comes along.
**Ethereum** (ETHUSD): Price range for the day was $13 (6% of the high). Price continues to push lower to test back at support around $201. It is holding there for now.
**Ripple** (XRPUSD): Price range for the day was $0.02226 (7.7% of the high). I was right about price wanting to go lower. It did - dropping below support at $0.27735 to test back to the $0.26 level and the top of the last consolidation range.
<h3>CryptoBots</h3>
**Profit Trailer Bot** No closed trades. Some technical issues making me worried about reliability.
**New Trading Bot** Trading out using Crypto Prophecy. No closed trades
<h3>Currency Trades</h3>
**Outsourced MAM account** Actions to Wealth closed out 5 trades on EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDNZD for 0.23% profits for the day. No trades open. As expected the EURUSD long trade was a loser, the others were winners.
Cautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas
Images: I own the rights to use and edit the Buy Sell image. News headlines come from Google Search. All other images are created using my various trading and charting platforms. They are all my own work
Tickers: I monitor my portfolios using Yahoo Finance. The ticker symbols used are Yahoo Finance tickers
Charts: http://mymark.mx/TradingView - this is a free charting package. I have a Pro subscription to get access to real time forex prices
September 23, 2019
<a href="https://smartsteem.com?r=carrinm" target="_blank"><img src="https://smartsteem.com/static/smartsteem_banner.gif" /></a>" |
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|---|
| extensions | [] |
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|---|
| transaction_id | de793844e9f8f73d435ea3cb98e0e82d10346d60 |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| transaction_num | 13 |
|---|
|
|---|
| 14. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
|---|
| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
|---|
| 1. | | voter | desyfit |
|---|
| author | mad-runner |
|---|
| permlink | mad-runner-re-desyfit-actifit-desyfit-20190923t212046387z |
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| weight | 10,000 |
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| extensions | [] |
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|---|
| transaction_id | 044f17ed68017bd2bbdef591df04a4f643d10c5e |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
|---|
| transaction_num | 14 |
|---|
|
|---|
| 15. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
|---|
| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | transfer |
|---|
| 1. | | from | cgbartow |
|---|
| to | kryptogames |
|---|
| amount | 1.100 HIVE |
|---|
| memo | "Roll under 2 b99c61367a1af" |
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|---|
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| extensions | [] |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| transaction_num | 15 |
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| 16. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
|---|
| 1. | | required_auths | [] |
|---|
| required_posting_auths | |
|---|
| id | sm_tournament_checkin |
|---|
| json | {"tournament_id":"e3766f4e9207aeabb520f29f4fcd61f473d2311d","app":"steemmonsters/0.7.0"} |
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| extensions | [] |
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| signatures | | 0. | 2015b663c5bda5b845d956d1e77a4084d8613ef2ef5d74def25650bcb575df327673fd6d1d626bc5708ba85bf202dd8b4dec93fc6c5eb9303ae4fc5e0749c1f6ca |
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| transaction_id | 9743a18496cda60ac7929621b00551346219578a |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
|---|
| transaction_num | 16 |
|---|
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|---|
| 17. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
|---|
| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
|---|
| 1. | | required_auths | |
|---|
| required_posting_auths | [] |
|---|
| id | ssc-mainnet1 |
|---|
| json | {"contractName":"market","contractAction":"buy","contractPayload":{"symbol":"EPC","quantity":"1354458","price":"0.00008"}} |
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| extensions | [] |
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| signatures | | 0. | 205aac81131bf5f9ac34c1a789c584cbe555e9970572ea4dfd974fbdb280ff589821e1c0cd2264e312bbc8904764d5d39d830d2e3fd766045564440f121ac87eeb |
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| transaction_id | fabcfde52b10d1985ba41a6ccb2eea11bb62762d |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| transaction_num | 17 |
|---|
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|---|
| 18. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
|---|
| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
|---|
| 1. | | voter | bonmar |
|---|
| author | shaidon |
|---|
| permlink | mosaeeks-intro-video |
|---|
| weight | 10,000 |
|---|
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| extensions | [] |
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| signatures | | 0. | 1f686133a85b61fa0b8105bfb00d210defeebee22801ca352e1d3c03bcd2b2fba73be26a3aa13b8dddcda499f31af73b3d39a29ed5ab234c68fed8233d0044eade |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| transaction_num | 18 |
|---|
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|---|
| 19. | | ref_block_num | 56,525 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 1,688,417,782 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:47:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | claim_reward_balance |
|---|
| 1. | | account | averageninja |
|---|
| reward_hive | 0.000 HIVE |
|---|
| reward_hbd | 0.000 HBD |
|---|
| reward_vests | 47.497676 VESTS |
|---|
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|---|
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| extensions | [] |
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| signatures | | 0. | 202474e66e64e138eb2db85ac536015a8386af258f0d3ee156034d198cbfa3c7675b70dadfe80ae5a6e1054f0a551733736e7312557f3a1d40e3038f8ffb72c649 |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| transaction_num | 19 |
|---|
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|---|
| 20. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
|---|
| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
|---|
| 1. | | voter | nigelmarkdias |
|---|
| author | celinavisaez |
|---|
| permlink | fr-300-desoldering-tool-with-carrying-case |
|---|
| weight | 1,000 |
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| extensions | [] |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| 21. | | ref_block_num | 56,525 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,688,417,782 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:47:23 |
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| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
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| 1. | | voter | zimtstern |
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| author | blewitt |
|---|
| permlink | a-scary-call |
|---|
| weight | 10,000 |
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|---|
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| extensions | [] |
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| signatures | | 0. | 1f0b4e66bb5fcc52644460ded0a352d1d47cd6bad4da5293f97730433d49ee9bfa7acbe0cb82612893077b996eaedbb27e2f9ec411d7f4b2c28a411bef4f59966b |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| transaction_num | 21 |
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| 22. | | ref_block_num | 56,525 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,688,417,782 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:46:53 |
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| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
|---|
| 1. | | required_auths | |
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| required_posting_auths | [] |
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| id | ssc-mainnet1 |
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| json | "{"contractName":"tokens","contractAction":"transfer","contractPayload":{"to":"chattanooga1","symbol":"SAND","quantity":"1","memo":"SAND Airdrop San Diego Token SanDiegoCoin.org SanDIego residents get paid to post about Southern California at SteemSanDiego.com Withdraw to EOS SAND on Steem-Engine.com"}}" |
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| extensions | [] |
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| transaction_id | bfc94e3f061b463a1d12e2de9a8614e479fe3f95 |
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| transaction_num | 22 |
|---|
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|---|
| 23. | | ref_block_num | 56,525 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 1,688,417,782 |
|---|
| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:47:24 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
|---|
| 1. | | voter | makhzar |
|---|
| author | prime-cleric |
|---|
| permlink | alphabet-origins |
|---|
| weight | 10,000 |
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|---|
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| extensions | [] |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| transaction_num | 23 |
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| 24. | | ref_block_num | 56,525 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 1,688,417,782 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:47:24 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | transfer |
|---|
| 1. | | from | smartsteem |
|---|
| to | airdropgod |
|---|
| amount | 1.442 HIVE |
|---|
| memo | #3cVcLPpCVgYZ6AiSWZCJf39ztaoisaUiZBRPu1sA3d6AdfNJZvMbTybYTPTFeAVcvyin5aRdsWbexWvG2X5x45aGQkPVBHsCjc89bKZKfPczeUxm1uWHTFFDp5x5Z1h6nYWk9Ad5vKL3WBAb9PidjwpCUnfuCUjfaqYLVAdUq39jZYqmh5oumS5uNwhLvhoLtm3 |
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| 25. | | ref_block_num | 56,525 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,688,417,782 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:47:24 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
|---|
| 1. | | voter | musamalijames |
|---|
| author | spinner |
|---|
| permlink | silver-carp |
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| weight | 10,000 |
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| extensions | [] |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| transaction_num | 25 |
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| 26. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
|---|
| 1. | | voter | dj-on-steem |
|---|
| author | trueimagine |
|---|
| permlink | boa |
|---|
| weight | 3,100 |
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| extensions | [] |
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| 27. | | ref_block_num | 56,525 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,688,417,782 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:46:53 |
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| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
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| 1. | | required_auths | [] |
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| required_posting_auths | |
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| id | sm_find_match |
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| json | "{"match_type": "Ranked"}" |
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| 28. | | ref_block_num | 56,525 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,688,417,782 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:46:53 |
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| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
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| 1. | | required_auths | [] |
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| json | "{"match_type": "Ranked"}" |
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| 29. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
|---|
| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
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| 1. | | required_auths | [] |
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| id | follow |
|---|
| json | ["reblog",{"account":"canon12","author":"steem-plus","permlink":"spp-stats-2019-9-24"}] |
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|---|
| 30. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
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| 1. | | required_auths | [] |
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| json | {"trx_id":"ab2d9fec8ca85de84edf1cce4882868da6f9f175","team_hash":"57fcf3757c0ff03c656f3d2d4ce48357","summoner":"C1-5-7MNBJ5EHTS","monsters":["C1-7-VJU8D47SY8","C1-2-42UBWUKUSG","C1-4-2TBF7OW5M8"],"secret":"3DGYELR3ai","app":"steemmonsters/0.7.0"} |
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| extensions | [] |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,274,419,848 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:24 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
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| 1. | | required_auths | [] |
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| id | sm_find_match |
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| json | {"match_type":"Ranked","app":"steemmonsters/0.7.0"} |
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| extensions | [] |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
|---|
| 1. | | required_auths | [] |
|---|
| required_posting_auths | |
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| id | nextcolony |
|---|
| json | {"username":"bergkinder","type":"explorespace","command":{"tr_var1":"P-ZZKAUV8VTK0","tr_var2":-119,"tr_var3":87,"tr_var4":"explorership1"}} |
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| extensions | [] |
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| 33. | | ref_block_num | 56,500 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,540,477,371 |
|---|
| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:21 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
|---|
| 1. | | required_auths | [] |
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| id | sm_find_match |
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| json | {"match_type":"Ranked","app":"steemmonsters/0.7.0"} |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,921,603,142 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:46:56 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | vote |
|---|
| 1. | | voter | semicentury |
|---|
| author | tintinnabulist |
|---|
| permlink | steem-monster-190922-u3b4tflv |
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| weight | 10,000 |
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|---|
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|---|
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| extensions | [] |
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|---|
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| 35. | | ref_block_num | 56,503 |
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| ref_block_prefix | 1,274,419,848 |
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| expiration | 2019-09-24 03:56:24 |
|---|
| operations | | 0. | | 0. | custom_json |
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| 1. | | required_auths | [] |
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| required_posting_auths | |
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| id | sm_find_match |
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| json | {"match_type":"Ranked","app":"steemmonsters/0.7.0"} |
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| extensions | [] |
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| signatures | | 0. | 204e7731b601eccc6aa67398b1f84baefff2060312f6aed258f152058de0231bb361631d167e0fff191e7c73169feb0cdd8473f7a450ac8fdee38939631b176044 |
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| transaction_id | fcf3434b04fda19c7f0bb58432e550724baabe30 |
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| block_num | 36,691,151 |
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| transaction_num | 35 |
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hiveblocks