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| expiration | 2020-09-23 14:54:54 |
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| 1. | | parent_author | "" |
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| parent_permlink | forex |
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| author | forexanalytics |
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| permlink | news-uy4blhhl9ol-9icq4w333vw |
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| title | "EUR/USD: Increased Chance Of A Big Trend" |
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| body | "The EUR/USD forex market on the daily chart broke below the bottom of the 8-week trading range today. So far, the breakout has been small and the EUR/USD is holding around the bottom of the range.
EUR/USD Daily https://d1-invdn-com.akamaized.net/content/pica0cfbbd2e4a435e7de76375aceb7efe8.png EUR/USD Daily
On the monthly chart (not shown), September traded above the August high and then below its low. September is now an outside down month. That is bearish, especially when it comes in a buy climax at resistance. It increases the chance of at least slightly lower prices in October. The outside down candlestick will be more bearish if September closes below the August low.
However, most trading range breakouts fail. There were several breakouts above the top of the range that reversed down.
Since the bull trend was so strong on the monthly chart, September will probably close back above the August low. That means the EUR/USD will probably be above the bottom of the trading range next week when September ends. Therefore, this bear breakout will likely not fall much lower in the next few days. Traders expect that the EUR/USD will turn up, at least slightly, within a day or two for the remainder of the month.
What happens if today closes far below the August low and tomorrow is also a big bear day? Traders will conclude that the breakout is successful and that the selloff will continue down for a measured move. The 1st downside target is the June 10 high. That was the breakout point for the July bull breakout.
OVERNIGHT EUR/USD FOREX TRADING
The 5 minute chart of the EUR/USD forex market fell below the bottom of the 8-week trading range overnight. However, the breakout was small and the EUR/USD bounced. It has been sideways in a small trading range around the August 3 low for the entire overnight session.
The bears want today to close far below the August low and on the low of the day. That is unlikely, given how the breakout has been small and most breakout attempts fail. At a minimum, they want today to close at least 1 pip below the Aug. 3 low. If they then get a 2nd close below the range tomorrow, traders will assume that a successful breakout has begun. The bears will sell rallies today as long as today remains a trading range day, as they try to get the bulls to give up.
The bulls always want the opposite. They hope today is a failed breakout. They hope this is the start of a swing up to the top of the range. They will buy reversals up from the August 3 low and try to create a strong buy signal bar on the daily chart.
The odds of a reversal up will be greater if today is a bull day closing on its high and with a big body on the daily chart. At a minimum, they want today to close at or above the August low. They would prefer that it closes above the open so that today’s candlestick would have a bull body. That would make it a better buy signal bar for tomorrow. Traders would then be more willing to buy tomorrow above today’s high.
What is most likely? Today will probably remain a small trading range day and close a little above or below the August low. However, because the EUR/USD is at such an important price, there is an increased chance of a big trend today up or down.
<center>[Original Post](https://www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-increased-chance-of-a-big-trend-200538631)</center>" |
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