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| author | bemotivated |
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| permlink | tsla-effective-short-interest-could-be-as-high-as-26---potential-incoming-short-squeeze-20210406t030544z |
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| title | "TSLA effective short interest could be as high as 26% - potential incoming short squeeze" |
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| body | "**TL;DR:** TSLA short interest is not 5% as reported, but 26% due to float contraction & options bets, making the stock susceptible to a short squeeze.
DD:
----
- The 5.5% TSLA equity short interest of 44m shares [1] is only part of the "true", effective TSLA short interest: there's 2.6 million put option contracts open right now [2], a significant part of which are in the money, which, on a ~20% rally due to record Q1 results, combined with 2.6 million open calls, have the delta hedging effect equivalent to another ~100m shares short covered ...
- The pro-forma float of TSLA is 771m shares [2] - but at least ~130m of that is locked up by S&P 500 index funds, ~90m by options market makers for current delta hedging requirements: 220m shares or 28% of the float is already locked up today - effective float is 551m shares or lower.
- Due to TSLA's +1,000% rally in 2020 options market makers are net long TSLA by tens of millions of shares - so the delta hedging effect of put contracts doesn't show up in the regular short interest as it normally does for other names. Much of the effective short interest is "hidden" by this temporary artifact.
- So if we plug these numbers in: with TSLA starting at $661 if we have a major rally due to the Q1 results (TSLA already up +7% today) then we have 44m shares equity short and market makers lock up another ~100m shares during the rally just to delta-hedge the millions of puts and millions of calls.
- The delta hedging by market makers is anti-dilutive, just like short covering: it removes shares from the effective float. Anti-dilutive buy-to-cover is much stronger buying pressure than the typical trader-to-trader buying, because it contracts the float.
- So should most Tesla shorts want to cover (not all: some are price insensitive hedges), they have to compete with the delta hedging of market makers (and regular bullish buyers): there's a combined buying of 144m shares on a 20% move, against an effective float of 551m shares. **That's an effective short interest of 26%.**
- A short interest of 26% for a low-float megacap like TSLA is excessively high compared to other megacaps: AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and GOOG short interest is all below 1%, and their options open interests are an order of magnitude smaller than that of TSLA. [4] [5]
I.e. the Tesla shorting that drive the price down from the $900 ATH to the current $661 is an ***excessively*** overcrowded short trade, with over $30b value at risk - which they'd want to cover much faster than any GME short position.
So a significant TSLA "synthetic short squeeze" is possible IMO, driven in part by excessive short options bets.
Should after the record quarter TSLA rally beyond $900 price levels to new ATHs, then all bets are off.
^Sources:
[1] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/short-interest
[2] https://marketdata.theocc.com/series-search?symbolType=U&symbol=TSLA
[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/tsla/key-statistics/
[4] https://marketdata.theocc.com/series-search?symbolType=U&symbol=AAPL
[5] https://marketdata.theocc.com/series-search?symbolType=U&symbol=MSFT" |
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| author | ylich |
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| id | sm_enter_tournament |
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hiveblocks