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| parent_permlink | walllstreetbets |
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| author | fiftysats |
|---|
| permlink | vertical-integration-and-technological-disruption-sdc-20210407t002809z |
|---|
| title | "Vertical Integration and Technological Disruption ($SDC)" |
|---|
| body | "​
[The Bag Holder Experience](https://preview.redd.it/lz8hmq836lr61.png?width=2334&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a29a02f49f366d78fd2aefdc0c6f16177748b90)
I would like to present to you a long-term value play, that includes short-term technical profitability as well a potential short squeeze.
This bullish thesis on Smile Direct Club will be presented in segments.
1. The Service and Product. (Strengths, What SDC provides to consumers around the world)
2. Partnerships and contracts. (Agreements that SDC has made to ensure further growth)
3. Fundamentals. (Opportunities, QOQ growth, Debt paydown, New board members, International Expansion)
4. Technicals and mechanics. (Strong support at $10 and 30% short interest)
5. Counterarguments( Weaknesses and threats)
6. Positions
# The service and Product.
​
[General information on how SDC does business.](https://preview.redd.it/q3hif166rkr61.png?width=1864&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b93787de857cb99c9bd688b61b65e5526a217ca)
SDC is a telehealth dental company that provides clear aligners for 1/3 the cost of $Align and mom and pop orthodontists. SDC has developed a vertical integration system where the customer has the ability to work with them in a couple of different ways.
​
1.) Work solely through SDC where they scan their teeth at home or in one of their dental offices where the scan is sent back to the production facility for their aligners. The aligners are molded and shipped directly to the consumer thus cutting out the middleman and overhead.
2.) Work with an in-network orthodontist and have the orthodontist submit the information to SDC and the same process is completed at a fraction of the cost.
The consumer then has regular checkups as they begin adjusting their teeth with an easy in-person meeting or call over the phone.
# Partnerships and contracts.
1.) SDC has developed partnerships with major insurance companies from blue shield to MetLife thus helping customers have little to no cost.
2.) They have also developed a payment plan to help customers who do not have dental insurance to afford the payments.
3.) SDC has developed partnerships with major network orthodontists and dentists across the United States and other countries. Dentists get paid for their time and a referral fee for having SDC recommended.
4.) Agreements with CVS, Walmart, Walgreens, Sam's club to present their ancillary teeth whitening product line that is normally given as a bonus to those who pay for the teeth straightening kit. This promotes brand awareness because they are on every shelf in America as well as a small amount of revenue.
​
# Fundamentals
SDC IPO'd just before covid and suffered as many other companies did during that time. Since then they have been growing QOQ, paying off high-interest debt by securing 0% convertible notes, bringing on power marketing players to the board of directors, and soon will be increasing their gross margins by \~10%.
​
1.) QOQ growth.
[During a pandemic, a discretionary income product and service was able to create QOQ growth.](https://preview.redd.it/hc639k7uskr61.png?width=1874&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdc848aa4163d3b0aae464f732452ae4e12b7fac)
As seen above SDC was affected in q2 over 2020 significantly, but was able to survive and bounce back. Now it is only a matter of time before SDC is a name in every home.
2.) Debt Paydown.
​
[Elimination of high-interest debt with 0% interest capped calls.](https://preview.redd.it/vcqjsp9gtkr61.png?width=1882&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0a578d5ffe592d4830fa43ad3336212f5ddab02)
As seen above SDC has recently been able to enter a large cash position with this convertible debt offering. This debt payoff provides a few benefits. No interest is eating away at their profits, it protects current shares holders from dilution under the lower cap of $18, and it puts SDC in a great cash position to further their expansion into international markets.
​
3.) Marketing and New board members.
Ted Ward has recently been brought on for his expertise in marketing. You may know him from developing Geico's marketing. [https://capitolcommunicator.com/ted-ward-geico-named-one-of-10-ad-ages-power-players/](https://capitolcommunicator.com/ted-ward-geico-named-one-of-10-ad-ages-power-players/)
Also as seen below, SDC has been growing significantly QOQ with a reducing Marketing budget. They are seeing a healthy referral-derived customer base. This is only expected to increase as SDC further expands its operations.
[Less Marketing with Growth](https://preview.redd.it/hcmf03sgukr61.png?width=1862&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3dcf5aa04e9d80470257c6d1d7ab57f01b147cd)
4.) International Expansion.
​
[SDC has its sights focused outside of the U.S. where teeth straightening is unaffordable for most other middle-income workers. ](https://preview.redd.it/99wiosr1vkr61.png?width=1830&format=png&auto=webp&s=73d76ef4c9627794b2551ee8c676f5201e58ce79)
SDC has been setting up small brick-and-mortar and pop-up locations in countries around the world. (Most recently Mexico city).
​
# Technicals and Mechanics
​
[1-year chart SDC](https://preview.redd.it/bzkeq05kvkr61.png?width=1250&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6c684bf21d768232e144758cbf46cf784f45147)
​
SDC at the current moment has been on a downward trend since February where it reached around $16. It has been consolidating since where it has met heavy support at $10. It set for an upward trend soon however the shorts have been having their way for quite some time. Essentially "training or choo chooing" this company.
1.) 30% short interest. That's all.
# Counter arguments. Weakness and Threats.
1.) Rivalry amongst existing competitors. SDC is up against every orthodontist in the U.S. that wants the process of getting braces or a clear aligner from $align to stay the same. This is affecting their pockets and unless SDC is able to continue building trust with orthodontists to use their product, sadly SDC will lose market share.
2.) Bargaining power of suppliers. Nonexistent because smile direct owns and operates the creation of the straighteners.
3.) Bargaining power of buyers. Yes, consumers have many different options when it comes to finding a way to straighten their teeth. However, find a company that provides the same service at the same cost as SDC. You simply cannot.
4.) The threat of substitutes. Yes, people could choose to decide, "Hey I don't want straight teeth. It is what is on the inside that counts. He/she will choose me for my personality."
5.) The threat of New Entrants. Non-existent. SDC holds a patent on their process. [https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/08/2141799/0/en/SmileDirectClub-Granted-New-Patent-for-SmileShop-Retail-Concept-and-Digital-Customer-Journey.html](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/08/2141799/0/en/SmileDirectClub-Granted-New-Patent-for-SmileShop-Retail-Concept-and-Digital-Customer-Journey.html)
I am long and hard. I do agree that I am not sure when this company will spike, but I am not looking to have this jump next week. Just wanted to share what I have seen over the past six months or so.
​
​
​
​
​
After some demand for a TLDR.
\-Large Cash positions with convertible debt at 0% interest that will only be converted above the $18 share price
\- Patent on their process. Not even Align can do what SDC is doing and ALign is in the 4-500 price range
\- New Company that has 30% short interest that has been growing quarter after quarter even with covid
\- The guy who created "So easy a caveman can do it" is now running their show. Ted has control over their marketing. Big players are involved now." |
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hiveblocks