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author | taskmaster4450le |
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permlink | why-inflation-will-melt-away |
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title | "Why Inflation Will Melt Away" |
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body | "Jumpin' Jerome Powell is all about the [inflation](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-inflation). After all, he feels our pain.
It is a sign of the times when the Chair of the [Federal Reserve](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-federal-reserve-bank-the-fed) turns to political rhetoric in his opening statement to Congress. Yet, that is exactly where we are.
That said, it is what he says after that is really concerning. Over the last 9 months, the talk of the town is inflation. We have, according to the hoopster, a strong labor market. This means that the Fed, which is living by the previous debunked Phillip's Curve (see the 1970s), is going to keep hiking until inflation comes down.
To all who lose your jobs, be damned.
Well, one thing seems to be certain: the Fed is going to keep going until they break something. Unfortunately, we are in for a doozy this time.
## Are You High Man?
Who ever herd of hiking rates *into* a [recession](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-recession)?
Most time, when a recession hits, [central banks](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-central-bank) believe they can fix things by lower rates. After all, in their outdated minds, if they lower rates, people will borrow more. Perhaps we couple that with some [Quantitative Easing (QE)](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-quantitative-easing-qe), which will work this time even though the previous 4,980 versions did not, and we are on the road to robust economic growth.
Even though that model is repeatedly proven false, the idea of hiking [interest rates](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-interest-rate) going into a recession is just stupid. Of course, there is a way around this: change the definition of a recession.
The White House took the lead on this (that ought to tell you something) by slamming the idea. This was followed up by the equally comic Janet Yellen at the Treasury, who chimed in how the White House was correct (brown-nosing at its finest).
Obviously this gave Jumpin' Jerome the cover he needed to keep raising rates. We are also getting the run off the balance sheet, something that is in alignment with their all out tightening. Unfortunately, the [economy](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-economy) is on edge, something these nitwits are completely overlooking.
Have no fear, it will bitch slap them like there is no tomorrow.
Perhaps it is worthy of mentioned that Powell went though this in 2018 when he, along with the 600 economists on staff at the Fed, completely misread things.
## Inflation Say Bye Bye
Inflation is the story of 2022. It will not even get a mention in 2023. And no, this is not because of Jumpin' Jerome's inflation busting actions. He idolizes Volcker, who had the eurodollar helping him to crush inflation. Nevertheless, why kill a good myth with the facts? Either way, Volcker had two horrific recessions during the first Reagan term.
So what is Powell intent on doing? Creating a massive recession. Even the ones on CNBS (I mean CNBC, not BS) are pulling soft landing off the table. It takes a lot for the propaganda machine to turn against the Fed but it appears to be the case.
The likelihood that we end up with a full year [GDP](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-gross-domestic-product-gdp) of zero (or even negative) in the US is high. That means we are going to witness a lot of unravels of many things. Companies that overstaffed will start laying off. Defaults will increase meaning overleveraged entities could face liquidation. Velocity of economic activity is surely to slow as caution takes hold.
In short, demand will get screwed meaning that, even if supply chains do not get back to the 2019 levels, it won't matter. The supply chains caused much of this mess and demand obliteration will solve it.
Unfortunately, Powell does have a part in this. The longer he is walking around with his head up his you-know-what, the more drawn out this will be. Based upon some simple calculations, using historic patterns as a guide, we are basically looking at the middle of next year as the **best case scenario** for things to get better. It is more probable that we will have to wait until the 4th quarter to see improvement.
When you are look at 6 quarters from the start of the recession, until the end, that is enough to make any inflationary pressures melt away. In fact, do not be surprised if the discussion in 2023 centers around [deflation](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-deflation).
This will is in line with the money supply that is out there right now. Once we understand the true nature of [money](https://leofinance.io/@leoglossary/leoglossary-money) these days, we see how the central banks really have little input.
Nevertheless, the Powell PR campaign will continue. Sentiment is something that it does appear the Fed has control over.
___
If you found this article informative, please give an upvote and rehive.
https://images.hive.blog/0x0/https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/doze/MkkDNhyH-2020_04_13_16_57_48.gif
gif by @doze
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logo by @st8z
Posted Using [LeoFinance <sup>Beta</sup>](https://leofinance.io/@taskmaster4450le/why-inflation-will-melt-away)" |
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json | {"cards":[["C3-283-BS59CI5SOW",1.5],["C3-283-04FXRTYUTC",1.5],["C3-283-1M24DO5O5C",1.5],["C3-283-K8GM05AW28",1.5],["C3-283-9OALODYTY8",1.5],["C3-283-AU2JJZVBI8",1.5],["C3-283-U7OA41GCN4",1.5],["C3-283-7XPS4Y7Y40",1.5],["C3-331-05L5F74WQO",0.4],["C3-331-00913OKQ6O",0.4],["C3-331-17M4HVFYUO",0.4],["C3-331-NTQ55XPBI8",0.4],["C3-331-07X89A4CA8",0.4],["C3-331-00B8S7GPOG",0.4],["C3-331-04BB4BVBDC",0.4],["C3-331-0F361V07F4",0.4],["C3-331-OTP0FZLH5S",0.4],["C3-331-0I32FK41Z4",0.4],["C3-331-05KI0DGU1C",0.4],["C3-331-00BGZIK65S",0.4],["C3-331-MN7JE4GJXS",0.4],["C3-331-0FR9CZ214W",0.4],["C3-331-04XBIBUSZ4",0.4],["C3-331-00J92GLJIO",0.4],["C3-331-50I6ND5Y9S",0.4],["C3-331-0K8YJFP180",0.12],["C3-332-T7Q509S8V4",0.46749999999999997]],"type":"rent","fee":500} |
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extensions | [] |
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transaction_id | 60e0efb5696ae1d785d241efc614a02e91e12985 |
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transaction_num | 37 |
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38. | ref_block_num | 61,625 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:31:15 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | |
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required_posting_auths | [] |
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id | sm_market_rent |
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json | {"items":["9224cb88e622540b170a692fabfc735ffcb7f575-0"],"days":2,"currency":"DEC","limit_price":63.855,"market":"peakmonsters","app":"peakmonsters"} |
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extensions | [] |
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transaction_id | a586f10d64ecd7d7a546a53c4bd488dadb1116df |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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transaction_num | 38 |
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39. | ref_block_num | 61,624 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:31:12 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | |
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required_posting_auths | [] |
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id | sm_market_rent |
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json | {"items":["58b826c3bc1224bd148fbbdf4ca57f90c194ad29-136"],"currency":"DEC","days":2,"limit_price":0.1,"market":"peakmonsters","app":"peakmonsters"} |
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extensions | [] |
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transaction_id | 94bd82d5260cae1b470436e5d135114987f08fc4 |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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transaction_num | 39 |
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40. | ref_block_num | 61,626 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:31:18 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | |
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required_posting_auths | [] |
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id | sm_market_renew_rental |
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json | {"items":["58e11150cd365c23add1483eab27e329807e4f0d-43"],"days":2,"currency":"DEC","player":"lm4tachibana","market":"peakmonsters","app":"peakmonsters"} |
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extensions | [] |
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signatures | 0. | 20450826a7a68f6e833b118cb01ebe43092a0d0f730824fc8bf51e9287dd4dd1481edcec3a9f54ad9e4fa5ccb261f5a8e211d42c917c5e8401b4565c1889822e79 |
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transaction_id | 504ea10bdb2469631a9077bfa929c1700c12a6e8 |
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41. | ref_block_num | 61,609 |
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1. | required_auths | |
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required_posting_auths | [] |
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id | ssc-mainnet-hive |
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json | "{"contractName":"tokens","contractAction":"transfer","contractPayload":{"symbol":"SPT","to":"poshtoken","quantity":"0.000025","memo":"@reward.app sending your 2.5e-05 SPT tokens for: @poshtoken/re-lozio71-risultati-del-focus-quotidiano-su-splinterlands-de-7876"}}" |
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extensions | [] |
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transaction_id | e2c7235b0520f014cf01bc8340977c3519490abd |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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42. | ref_block_num | 61,608 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:40:18 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | |
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required_posting_auths | [] |
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id | sm_market_rent |
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json | {"items":["54f99e1c2b53cb868dea0b324e4d16a15b33a4d8-25","8b94a4ce817011bf01d4717c1f39f4ff48b06d9c-139","40bb0763308e2bfee3f4dd3f45adf7fbb06644f9-75","f253bedc5932f409d529535aba2aed54a5382bb1-38","e54a35edd435de94c0f4cae2093517807db3cf4b-2","02c69041bd1965f556abaa72dea873a6baad5f49-0","bafb0e322ef3728c237c54e194ea4bad471103e5-0","698c8b690c806c5d15179ac1611f4e50575f8ce5-5","f8937285cef67303da6c3d47c2e9ea885453b3ba-1","698c8b690c806c5d15179ac1611f4e50575f8ce5-0","1477e157818021192a5e2ca0b5ab0f759b94ed79-47","f8787e50b5f38253f1ef3d6706ff5f6047df7349-116","dab1a4fc2300394d563c43ac34978b199d1008fa-15","a090585cf50f182f84e81252653e3083a8b68e44-25"],"currency":"DEC","days":2,"app":"splinterlands/0.7.139","n":"c0DIvATy7t"} |
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extensions | [] |
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transaction_id | 096010e017d0d189137c30291de498d3ff7e6464 |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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43. | ref_block_num | 61,609 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:30:48 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | |
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required_posting_auths | [] |
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id | ssc-mainnet-hive |
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json | {"contractName":"market","contractAction":"buy","contractPayload":{"symbol":"SWAP.LTC","quantity":"4.04404375","price":"109.11112342"}} |
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extensions | [] |
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transaction_id | a6b81766789aa8a68cdece2f0e57eb72fb91a5fc |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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transaction_num | 43 |
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44. | ref_block_num | 61,608 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | [] |
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required_posting_auths | |
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id | sm_update_rental_price |
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json | {"items":[["011e9fb10145d068596096e0d6a61d1de3f5484e-30","1.156"],["9c5808a5b619e51e22846825eb9e0196a54d1134-0","1.396"],["0d2bd7ed683ff01f0c11c04eb9cf8a18551625bb-1","1.396"]],"app":"Splex"} |
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extensions | [] |
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transaction_id | 1e52c7f23b7e2f9f9504d9311363f1f80e2b2ca7 |
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45. | ref_block_num | 61,608 |
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ref_block_prefix | 4,243,196,793 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:40:18 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | [] |
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required_posting_auths | |
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id | sm_update_rental_price |
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json | {"items":[["a96695d3b49718b932bff9c83a764068e7c6e4aa-81","0.124"],["a96695d3b49718b932bff9c83a764068e7c6e4aa-82","0.124"],["a96695d3b49718b932bff9c83a764068e7c6e4aa-83","0.124"]],"app":"Splex"} |
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extensions | [] |
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signatures | 0. | 1b621d1e097744a42556370d33ebc6374531d2fae82878fa4975c39d394e156e1e02c6f36ce2158454b1b19eb8ccb01714c6131583d504e8d55179207cb5b48885 |
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transaction_id | 706df27f04a15f202146ad03cc991799ca4a180a |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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46. | ref_block_num | 61,608 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:40:18 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | [] |
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required_posting_auths | |
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id | sm_claim_reward |
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json | {"type":"league_season","season":93,"app":"splinterlands/0.7.139","n":"9pwneFaDmc"} |
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extensions | [] |
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transaction_id | a2c9e4040e4dd8a8efdb3755dd4ff50b680152a3 |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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47. | ref_block_num | 61,626 |
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ref_block_prefix | 2,086,917,312 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:31:18 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | |
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required_posting_auths | [] |
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id | sm_market_renew_rental |
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json | {"items":["4403c6c8f87fef729d54b6a25aa77564b016576c-0"],"days":2,"currency":"DEC","player":"sjobs","market":"peakmonsters","app":"peakmonsters"} |
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extensions | [] |
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signatures | 0. | 1f2a78ad429400e8c6b55b64ed8b38bf1538dc197978f82a74721cfc2148ec81eb6ea5aeccce390ed5e5e3f28a8ee1c46407cb6cd3b9dbcf00f6d20b089b17b2f5 |
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transaction_id | 637d1b41339ef2f5be0e55554ed1669a422890bd |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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transaction_num | 47 |
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48. | ref_block_num | 61,626 |
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ref_block_prefix | 2,086,917,312 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:31:18 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | |
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required_posting_auths | [] |
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id | ssc-mainnet-hive |
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json | {"contractName":"witnesses","contractAction":"register","contractPayload":{"IP":"2407:7000:9cb7:b800::12c3","RPCPort":5010,"P2PPort":5011,"signingKey":"STM6srrowHwJRdMSfNQTbiYT3sc8YpMq7cT2rZb4597GPm5wAG3m6","enabled":false}} |
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extensions | [] |
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signatures | 0. | 1f1081dd1950bb8f454fd938aeab679ce58216419544e49e981e5de93918b068235d70ae4b04720f347a8ee915515065eca11bf2a8028b846f48ba81a40cd1fdb7 |
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transaction_id | c64b79d99d6950c7faf07cc17df6859ad262b4c9 |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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49. | ref_block_num | 61,626 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:40:19 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | [] |
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required_posting_auths | |
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id | sm_start_quest |
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json | {"type":"daily"} |
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extensions | [] |
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signatures | 0. | 1f1a63104e2c2d63549233ddbd2a0d92a8b30f31f992d21f984427007b576bf21469d5752f1ed752fb92dbc18fe9f9ddf2984e14061535cd4e4fdeceab8621a173 |
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transaction_id | 319be3875c36d7e146839aefff438182437ca52e |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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50. | ref_block_num | 61,608 |
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ref_block_prefix | 4,243,196,793 |
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expiration | 2022-09-05 01:40:18 |
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operations | 0. | 0. | custom_json |
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1. | required_auths | |
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required_posting_auths | [] |
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id | sm_market_rent |
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json | {"items":["b036ef3422e179aa48c2fb43a2aca3a9fff2c1c2-55"],"currency":"DEC","days":2,"app":"splinterlands/0.7.187","n":"Mw9V4MD3TN"} |
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extensions | [] |
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transaction_id | a387c8d6b5a4e1576fd2823f89a9ae7a7063aade |
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block_num | 67,629,243 |
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transaction_num | 50 |
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