There will be no new lock-downs. The response will be much more targeted during the second wave: masks in crowded indoor spaces like buses at rush hour, enforced quarantine for those returning from countries classified as having higher risk, arrangements at school and at workplaces to reduce exposure and a recommendation to work distantly if possible. 

The pandemic will be over like every other pandemic before it. In countries or regions incapable of restricting it, it will spread swiftly and it will make a lot of people sick. The most vulnerable will die but but those who become moderately ill from it will be too sick to work for many weeks. A few will have long-lasting symptoms that will reduce their capacity to work and lower their life quality. Eventually effective vaccines will be available or the virus will mutate and develop variants that cause a milder disease and severe symptoms for much fewer and that will spread more rapidly in populations. Those variants will give populations herd immunity against the other variants, too.