RE: Lost in the tunnel by tarazkp

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hive-167922 · @tarazkp · Aug 22 '20

Maybe in Finland, but what about elsewhere? Victoria (Melbourne area) got locked down in an unprecedented way a couple weeks ago. 

> Those variants will give populations herd immunity against the other variants, too.

Until the next mutation that lays outside of the created defenses.

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@markkujantunen · Aug 22 '20

>Maybe in Finland, but what about elsewhere? Victoria (Melbourne area) got locked down in an unprecedented way a couple weeks ago.

That's not good news. At some point, the economic pressure will build up sufficiently to make it impossible lock down the economy.

>"Those variants will give populations herd immunity against the other variants, too."

>Until the next mutation that lays outside of the created defenses.

It's never binary like that. Both the immune systems and the pathogens are responsive. 

There hasn't been a single pandemic in history that hasn't run its natural course and vanished eventually. When a new pathogen jumps the species barrier and is introduced in humans, it tends to cause a severe illness because few people's immune systems can deal with it. But over time such pathogens become adapted to humans and the human immune systems adapt to them.

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@tarazkp · Aug 22 '20

>At some point, the economic pressure will build up sufficiently to make it impossible lock down the economy.

Who suffers with this kind of pressure, who gains?

>There hasn't been a single pandemic in history that hasn't run its natural course and vanished eventually.

Eventually there will be a wipeout one, unless we do it to ourselves first with nukes. But this is the issue - this flu really isn't so bad in comparison to what would have happened under a bad flu season anyway.

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@markkujantunen · Aug 22 '20 (edited)

>"Who suffers with this kind of pressure, who gains?"

There's always someone gaining while others suffer. But at some point, too many will suffer.

>"There hasn't been a single pandemic in history that hasn't run its natural course and vanished eventually."

>Eventually there will be a wipeout one, unless we do it to ourselves first with nukes. But this is the issue - this flu really isn't so bad in comparison to what would have happened under a bad flu season anyway.

That's not true. Covid-19 is also not just a flu. It affects not only the respiratory system but other organ systems as well. 

The infection fatality rate (= the rate of death of all of those who are infected) is unknown because it is not known what proportion of the population has been infected. Also, the second wave of the pandemic is in an early stage.

The second wave has sometimes been the more deadly one because of this  phenomenon called antibody-dependent enhancement:

https://advances.massgeneral.org/research-and-innovation/article.aspx?id=1186

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