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RE: Diversifying Curation Reward by recursive

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· @recursive · (edited)
If you agree that bots have their place, and are basically automated humans, why the emphasis on trying to weed them out by fiddling with incentives?

You are claiming that voting, as a bot, is significantly less costly than it is to a human. Right now this may be true because the market is still deeply inefficient due to it being very young and some very simple voting strategies are consistently working and affecting negatively the market (which is why bots are not seen in good light right now). But keep in mind that in a competitive environment (not the case right now) bots too need to make decisions to maximize their profits, and these decisions can't be made out of thin air. Either the owner of the bot regularly seats down and manually curate his bot list to weed out underperforming authors, add new rising authors, and identify potential new talent. Or the bot is fully automated in which case it needs to take its input from somewhere, this somewhere being all sort of things from past performance to keywords based heuristics to simply following someone else whose performance as a curator has proven to be good. Now, we aren't yet in an era where programs can parse and understand natural language, so once quantitative tricks start yielding too low margins due to increased competition, botters will have to move to qualitative analysis of the content to determine what content is actually valuable as this is the best predictor for success and higher returns. And what better way to do that than hiring curators (like Smooth is already doing) or following successful curators? Because of that, being a human curators with a talent to pick good content will increasingly lead to accruing a significant bot following and in some case land job opportunities as exclusive curator for a large stake holder. This will increasingly incentivize curators and redistribute some of the wealth captured by bots back to human curators. This in turn should serve as incentive for human curators to spend time reading content and building a track record of good picks for the bots to detect and act upon.

Why do I know this will work? Because this works exactly like that on the traditional financial markets. There are basically two main categories of trading: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis involves analyzing the assets in their economic, societal and political environment and determining based on their intrinsic qualities and fitness, as well as the image they project in the market, which assets will appreciate and which will depreciate. Technical analysis knows nothing of the assets and only analyzes market behavior, using all sorts of statistical methods to compute correlations, trends, momentum etc. to attempt to determine what to buy and what to sell based on mere probabilities. And at a higher level, there are traders who buy research from technical and fundamental analysts, consolidate the signals, and trade based on a hybrid model that combines both views. These days, there is even a new approach called "social trading" that involves specialized social networks for traders where traders both institutional and individual can propose macro views, analysis, strategies, signals or pronostics and get rated based on how much predictive power their research turns out to have retrospectively. The best rated "social traders" are being increasingly followed with the top performers being routinely poached by leading financial institutions. And then you have social traders who trade using optimized baskets of signals from other "social traders" etc. The point being that social trading is the ultimate melting pot of trading and AFAIK the best present manifestation of man-made swarm intelligence, and yet ... social trading involves **both technical and fundamental analysis** and anything in between, to the point where the limits is becoming completely blur and irrelevant.

Of course, at some times, it seems that systematic trading is taking over the market, and you will hear the fundamental analysis folks and other economists (who are generally having the biggest corporate titles and shout the louder) cry that bots have seized the market and more regulation is needed. You always hear something like that after a flash crash where it turns out that a bunch of dysfunctional bots raced the market to the ground. But in reality, fundamental traders are still completely driving the market. Bots hardly take any direction at all, at least not on a macro level. Bots have no emotion: no fear, no greed. They just find alpha and take it. The important market movements, bubbles of all sorts, rallies and corrections each time the Fed scratch their nose, market hickups on a political events and corporate jetset gossip, hype cycles, bear and bull markets etc. all this is the work of fundamental traders. They are the ones who move the trillions between markets and asset classes. Bots just smooth the curves and arbitrage the little inefficiencies here or there, detect and amplify the trends, middleman market movements they anticipated and accelerate mean reversion. Bots are just  swarming around the real decision makers of the market, picking the eventual bread crumbs and improvising themselves insiders of actions they don't understand. In spite of all that has been and is still being said on high frequency trading and automated trading in general being evil and the cause of all our troubles, bots have never, do not, and will not before a long time be the ones responsible for moving the market in any direction whatsoever except for the occasional bot accident.

Now, how does that relate to Steem? It's simple. Curation voting is trading in disguise, with manual curators acting essentially like discretionary fundamental traders voting based on qualitative analysis of the value of the content, and botters being systematic traders trying to derive signals from the technical analysis of the curation reward history, and modelling of the behavior of manual curators and other bots and the patterns their actions. Right now, I concur that there is still a strong imbalance between botters and curators, with botters having almost all the trading capital and overfitting a very very weak signal which lead to them amplifying mere noise. But with the recent price movements that lowers the bar of entry in the "whale club", the new budget allocation rules that favor content creation in the redistribution of inflation, and the fact early adopters have been and are still continuously powering down, the balance is  slowly but steadily shifting toward equilibrium between value minded curators and botters.

As the curation signal gets strongers, bots will actually start adding value, for instance by making the market much more responsive to the discovery of new talent. Right now, a promising new author may hover at mid-level in the Hot section without making it to the Trending section in spite of numerous small votes from real users. With more and smarter bots, the good lexical footprint of the post, together with the fast increase of popularity of the unknown post from many small accounts among which some may have good and uncorrelated curating track record will immediately signal good content and attract bot votes, propelling the new author well into the top tiers of the Trending page. This is just one example of how bots could eventually turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to Steem in retrospect.

The bottom line is that trying to prevent bots is both counterproductive and pointless. Bots are an unavoidable and actually beneficial element of a *well structured* free market, the emphasis being on "well structured". Instead of focusing on the sisyphean task of getting rid of bots, energy would be better spent on pushing for a higher diversification of stake ownership either by promoting more heavily Steem to demographics that are likely to provide good content creators and curators (college students, academics, artists, authors, columnists, bloggers, web marketers, ebook writers etc), campaigning to convince existing content creators and manual curators that holding their SP / powering up their liquid earnings is a good idea (which would provide a refreshing change after having read so many posts from authors who complain that stake is imbalanced but are powering down their holdings anyway hereby making the situation even worse), and last but not least lobbying SteemIt Inc to start doing carefully designed and thoroughly KYC'd Steem Power giveaways from their gigantic premine to the same hand picked demographics I mentioned earlier.
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@clayop ·
> bots too need to make decisions to maximize their profits

I think this can be a start point to explain why you may not understand my argument. I fully agree bots need to maximize their profits as like humans do for utilities. But the question is here, what is required to maximize profits for bots (or some humans)? As you mentioned we haven't reached enough to where bots can understand and feel contents in natural language, they mostly vote with quantitative measure. Not only bots, some humans can follow some authors and every 6 hours mechanically upvote all posts on their feed without reading them.

You may think differently, these are mainly generate much noise in terms of qualitative curation based on content. For instance, if I post consisted of random words (e.g. "feawf 23`1908j f;adsofsda") and self-upvote, there will still be tens of upvotes for that post, and probably several dollars from my experience. For many users, especially new users who don't fully understand the patterns of our system, these votes are just noise that hinder efficient content discovery.
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vote details (1)
@recursive · (edited)
> But the question is here, what is required to maximize profits for bots (or some humans)? As you mentioned we haven't reached enough to where bots can understand and feel contents in natural language, they mostly vote with quantitative measure. Not only bots, some humans can follow some authors and every 6 hours mechanically upvote all posts on their feed without reading them.

The whole point of my post is that it is a **normal** and actually a **desirable** thing in a healthy free market to have second order (meta level) agents who do not make decisions based on the perceived value of the asset itself (here content) but on the behavior of other market participants.

Please read more carefully my previous post. I think the analogy with traditional finance should make the unavoidable existence of these two levels very clear and explain why having bots that do not understand at all content is not at all a problem (and actually a good thing) so long as there are enough participants in the market who do, which can only be achieved by diversifying ownership of Steem Power, not by trying to fiddle with the rules to weed out bots while keeping human participants who vote based on perceived content value. 

> You may think differently, these are mainly generate much noise in terms of qualitative curation based on content. For instance, if I post consisted of random words (e.g. "feawf 23`1908j f;adsofsda") and self-upvote, there will still be tens of upvotes for that post, and probably several dollars from my experience.

This isn't bots generating noise. This is you generating noise and bots amplifying it because they don't have any other clear signal to amplify and work on the very basic (but historically consistent) assumption that you are a reliable curator and author.  If you keep creating nonsensical noise, eventually bots will adjust (either automatically for the most advanced ones, and manually for the managed ones) and stop following your votes and/or upvoting your posts. Granted current generation of bots is pretty dumb, but again the reason is that there is very little competition and it's fairly easy to reap a good curation reward with minimal research effort. As Steem becomes more popular, there will be more bots and more manual curators, so there will be more competition and a better incentive for bots owners to up their game and make more effort discriminating actual signal from noise. Paradoxically the best way to get rid of over-simplistic bots is to encourage botting so that more people will join the game and push the bar higher.

At the risk of repeating myself, you won't turn and immature market into a mature market just by trying to rein in the bots. As you said (albeit not in these words), bots are automated human thought processes. So long as the system will offer economic incentives to humans based on the completion of tasks that do not require self-awareness or involve emotions, it will also by the same token offer the very same economic incentives to bots. 

We could remove entirely the economic incentive and make the reward entirely emotional so that it would make the use of bots pointless, but then you are back to the traditional blogging model where people post to share with their peers and gain social mileage, and even that is plagued by bots! Just look at all the click farming for "likes" and "friends" and "followers" and cheer leading comments. 

Without economic incentive, the game theory that underlies distributed consensus can't exist. Without sound distributed consensus, you open the door to sybil attacks and manipulation. Back to square one.
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@clayop ·
$0.02
Thanks for your points and I agree many of them you made. But I think debates  on bot is not a main issue (not even in the title) regardless of their smartness or dumbness. The point is design of incentives.

Numbers can be inaccurate, but for example Steem is giving 0% to whom don't vote and 1~5% ROI to those who vote. So voting is always more profitable than not voting. Rewarding on participation seems good, however, there is no alternative to keep profit other than vote.

The incentive system what I try to design is like this. Steem Power basically has fixed ROI of 2%. If you vote, you will get between 1~5% based on your voting performance instead of fixed 2%. If one is very confident to vote well, s/he will dive into the voting game, but if one prefer more stable income s/he will stay on 2%. That's my main idea of ***diversifying*** rewards.

Regarding this, I wish steemit accounts are excluded from fixed income as well as curation rewards because they are not an investor.
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vote details (1)
@sigmajin · (edited)
$3.62
I largely agree with the points you make above about automated curation (and thought your analysis was excellent).

However, there are a couple of points that I think bear mentioning.

The first is that the whole model you present depends upon there being some significant level of fundamental analysis.    In the absence of this, the technical actors, to use your signal analogy, will just amplify the echoes of their own old signals.  Kind of like the bots in wall-e.  

Now you make the argument that, at least for the stock market, "But in reality, fundamental traders are still completely driving the market. ", 

But this need not _necessarily_ always be true.  Imagine if, tomorrow, everyone in the world were eaten by lions.  The bots trading on the stock market would still continue to trade.  At least the ones that were turned on when the lions showed up. 

As days and weeks and years passed, the bots would continue to trade, and that trading would be based, to a larger and larger extent, not on the fundamental analysis that started the top spinning in the first place, but on their amplification and response to their own technical signals.

I don't think that steem is there right now, but with bots and other automated systems for curation becoming more and more widely available (and significantly crosslinked), and there being less and less profit available for fundamental analysis curators, i think we're moving towards there.  (for example, im pretty sure smooth doesn't employ curators anymore, and has not for some time.  I seem to recall him mentioning that it wasn't worth the financial benefit.)  And i think we're closer than many are entirely comfortable with.

The second is that,  using the current heavily front-weighted, stake based  system of steemit curation rewards, bots have a tendency, IMO, to amplify undesirable signals more than they amplify desirable signals.

Right now, the most profitable method of bot curation (as i know you are aware) is not following good curators, its front-running them.  Because of this, at least using the reward stucture of the current system, it is unlikely that any curator would followed by a bot seeking curation rewards.  Because of this, its also unlikely that any curator could rent out his curation service to whales  based on the weight of SP that follows him.  Because the bots would make sure to follow close enough to get in ahead of the whale, or not come in at all if the whale votes first.  This would make it a bad deal for the whale either way.

Of course, good curators are difficult to front run.  But bad curators are not.  Because of this, the bots will tend to amplify the signal of someone who, say, always votes for the same person more than the signal of someone who actually finds original content.  Because the bad signals are easier to predict (thats what makes them bad).   For the same reason, there is also a tendency for bots to amplify signals from other bots over legitimate fundamental analysis signals. 

As an exmaple, take the whale curator goes out of his way to find great, unrecognized content.  Call him whale A.  And take the whale curator who just votes for the same 5 guys 4 times a day every  day.  Call him whale B.  Your bots (just as an example) are going to front run whale B.  Because you can't front run whale A (you don't know what hes going to vote for)

Third is that bots have a huge speed advantage over human curators and that speed advantage is heavily, heavily rewarded by the curation rewards algorithm.  There are many who would make the argument that it was this type of speed advantage allowed bots and traders relying heavily on automation to entirely drive causal day traders out of the stock market in the early 2000s and out of the forex markets in like 2008-2010.

This is not necessarily a bad thing in and of itself in these particular markets, since there is no inherent desirability to getting a regular persons opinion on, say, how much the yen should be worth against the dollar.  

But in a market where we're trying to pick good content with subjective appeal to a wide audience, versus merely determining the ratio of value between one asset and another, many would consider freezing out "casual day traders" like this to be inherently harmful.

>Without economic incentive, the game theory that underlies distributed consensus can't exist. 

This is a great point, and something ive noticed on steemit generally.  Most people don't seem to understand that you can't apply game theory analysis to non economic incentives.

There's a tendency to speculate about what someone will or won't do based on psychological reasons, personal preference, or nebulous desire for their stake to increase in value, shout "game theory!  i win!" and take the point as proven.

That said, my biggest problem with most of clayops proposed reforms is that they throw out the baby with  the bathwater
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vote details (3)
@sigmajin ·
$0.03
Incidentally, as what might be possibly an example of bots amplify bot signal echoes -- check out this thread:
https://steemit.com/f17/@got/combust

Im testing something for a site im working on.  If you look at my comments, they seemed to be getting 10 bot votes yesterday, but tonight are getting 15.
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